Forum Moderators: anallawalla & bakedjake
When 'foreigners search locally' what are they predominantly searching for? It ain't a plumber in most cases. What are non-locals lookinig for mostly? What are the %? What % for eating establishments? What % for what else?
If most remote people are searching predominantly for hotels, restaurants and only a handful of other services - then do we really need that much 'local search technology'? Wouldn't a few robust vertical databse driven entities be able to serve the public well? Hotels.com? Restaurant.com?
C'mon, isn' the all a numbers game? If the many (remote) are searching for the few who says SEs win the day on this playing field? I say the verticals win.
Do the locals care much about maps? What's the proof there? (I've got a county map in every car. What do I care?)
As far as local for locals? I say it's the wild wild west and that the big guns will be swatting flies for the rest of their lives and they will discover that local just isn't sufficiently profitable, with perhaps a few exceptions - such as a handful of large cities. However, even on that score, I say the local newspapers - if they ever get their act together - and decide that they're really multimedia consumer oriented information services - then, when they realize that - they will wreak havoc on the nationals trying to muscle in on their turf.
I vote for the wild wild west and totally poo-poo the big players local efforts. I say they see things getting away from them and you know what? They're right and there's nothing practical they will ever be able to do about it.
So say I, for the most part.
Can the dominant local search subjects be handled by existing verticals? Lawyer.com, Contractor.com, Plumber.com, Flowers.com, etc? Do these entities simply have to do a better job of promoting their local/national/global reach?
Then what's next? Does Barry Diller try to buy all of the dominant local search keywords? Say, the top 10 "other searches" besides Hotels(.com)? Might be a worthwhile investment.
You see, for all the excitement about local search, I have to ponder: Just how robust is the thinking and analysis?
Where's the numbers local search experts?
[trying to answer your fury of posts]
I appreciate your excitement, but I am not sure what you are aiming for.
It seems to me that you are trying to undermine the drive associated with SE's attempt to provide utility to local searchers.
You are doing so under the premise (I believe)- that local is truly local, and that opportunistic national SEs are toying around with a false premise through what will be a futile effort.
I am not sure what to say to you in this regard. You want numbers, I have numbers. Many however, have been posted here, and or, easily accessible.
I think that there are a few numbers of substance here that are the underpinning of the bourgeoning local search arena:
1. Over 20% of all searches on SEs have explicit or implicit local intent.
2. Currently SME's spend 46% of their ad budget on Yellow Pages.
3. The US Yellow Pages industry is $15B annually.
4. There are approx. 14 MM SMEs in the US.
5. 60% of SME conduct 75% of their business within 50 mile of their business.
6. $22B is spent annually on local advertising.
So the question of why SE's are making attempts to provide utility to searches and businesses is obvious. This IS their business! And SEs are a critical part of the overall Internet experience for users. What more does one have to say than that?
Will local vertical plays also have a part in this marketplace? Of course they will. Will the market be dominated by just SEs? No. Will the SE's generate a significant amount of ad revenue by serving SME ads? Yes. Should SME direct dollars to search? Many should. Will SEs eat into traditional YP revenue? Yes. Is the tradition YP model vulnerable? Sure. Do the new local search utilities bring rich local data and social review and other attributes together in a new environment for business searchers? Yes. Are these new environments compelling? Yes.
I am not sure what you want to hear, Webwork. But the facts are the facts and a migration of dollars is taking place from traditional print to interactive, and currenly SEs and IYPs are core beneficiaries. Many of us are happy to talk about other likely beneficiaries, but can do so without questioning the very premise of an SE role in local search. To that I say their is nothing to argue about. They are here to stay.
Finally, vertical search and local search are not as different as you suggest. And if there is any one group who recognizes this most, it is the SEs themselves. Watch as unique vertical data is integrated into current SE horizontal local search over the months and years. The line will become blurred and SEs will lead the way through acquisition and vertical data lisence agreements.
60% of SME conduct 75% of their business within 50 mile of their business.
Now, that's 'sort of' of numbers I'm interested in for the purpose of discussion and debate about the future of local search. Does 'conduct their business' mean '75% of their buying customers come from within 50 miles'? No surprise there. Perhaps in the mid-west plains you have to travel a bit futher. In New Jersey I'm certain it's more like 70% comes from within 12 miles.
What about numbers for what 'remote people' are searching for 'locally'? Any numbers on that score?
You see, as to the quote: If 75% come with 50 miles (which I see as a figure meant to cast a broad net, since it's more likely 70% within 10 miles in most cases) then we are really talking about local media markets.
My major premise is that local media markets - newspapers, free local papers, local websites by locals - haven't quite yet weighed in on the subject of locals serving the advertising interests of locals.
I'm going to bet that dollar for dollar, in the not so distant future, the local advertisers will discover thay they will be getting a better bang for their buck from local online media and that local-to-local media/sites will turn out to be the driving engines of local search advertising. Should my inference surprise anyone? No. Is the local search forum mostly about how locals are in the process of beating the big players? No.
All the chatter about big media and big search coming to play a big role in the local market? Poo-poo.
If my media market is most of the time 10 miles I can cover that extremely well locally. I can get the eyeballs locally. I can get the traffic locally: A local billboard, exploit my knowledge of local traffic, meeting places, etc. The big machines simply will not be efficient enough to make it profitable going head to head locally, especially if they have to account to shareholders - that extra layer of profitability.
Now, on the subject of "national to local search", yeah - there's some 'potential there'. However, again, I've got to ask: What exactly are the numbers when it comes from Bob in Denver 'search locally' in Atlantic City or Des Moines?
What is Bob - 50, 60, 80% of the time searching for - that he's likely to 'click through to purchase' - when Bob from Denver 'searches abroad'?
My reasoned conjecture is that when Bob from Denver is searching abroad that 80+% of the time Bob is searching for 1) lodging of some kind 30+ % of the time; 2) tourist info; 3) jobs; 4) real estate; 5) college/school info; 6) less frequently - local professional help for a problem left behind. (How well has Barry Diller covered this territory? Is it Hotels.com, RealEstate.com, what else?) I don't have the 'remote to local' hard percentage facts, but I'm prepared to say I'm guessing intelligently, in part based upon my own life experience. (Anyone have any good hard facts they'd like to share about the % breakdown for 'remote to local search' by category?)
So, IFF 'remote to local search' falls predominantly into a handful of commercial categories then the verticals are likely to do a handy job of casting their nets to capture the traffic and will be optimized for such focused remote to local discrete vertical searches.
In the end, the way I see this working out, is that the SEs and IYPs and their ilk have a long term shot at covering 20% - effectively - of the local market for commercializable search, and that 20% will be subject to erosion as locals get more comfortable (better at) serving locals AND the big verticals do a better job of nailing down the local-to-local and remote-to-local markets.
So, whilst 20% of a large number is still a large number I think the 80% number - my estimation - is a far more interesting dialogue. Yet, I see most of the dialogue focusing on the 20%.
Just an observation and my own inferences. I infer that the real money and the real interesting action will be in areas generally not addressed by the 'industry leaders'. Then again, I infer that there's a reason the industry leaders aren't talking much about what I am.
"Probably because they're smarter than me" he says, with a certain sometimes irritating sarcasm and aloofness. ;0)
Phooey! It's about getting a fiesty discussion or debate going, or at the very least being thought provoking. I was excited about the addtion of the local search threads, but - forgive me for saying it, no offense intended - I've found the analysis and materials presented to be somewhat industry centric and unchallenged. After several months of not seeing any really challenging examination of the subject matter the urge to kick up some dust simply overwhelmed me. ;-)
My major premise is that local media markets - newspapers, free local papers, local websites by locals - haven't quite yet weighed in on the subject of locals serving the advertising interests of locals.
I think it's worthwhile in this analysis to separate branding types of advertising targeting customers not immediately looking to purchase, from YP/Classifieds where a purchase is imminent. Different animals, IMHO, both targeted locally, and both important to the SME.
For example, people searching for a retirement home (nursing home, old folks home) are likely to be relatives of the person needing care. How likely is it that an old person needing care is going to be using the internet to look? That is an extreme example but it does bring into the equation the fact that many searches are done by the person not requiring the product/service and the likelyhood is much higher that the search will be remote to local. Mothers day flowers are another such example.
Another factor is that people can search for either personal or business/organisation/government purposes.
A personal search for local products/services is going to be local to local, a business/org/gov search may be a central department which is handling the requirement of a remote location.
Do I have reliable percentages for the questions asked? No.
Would I share those percentages if I did? Probably not, given their value. Not being mean there, just realistic.
Do people care about maps? Not for services/products that come to them.
Will verticals win? Very probably.
Should YP providers be worried? Yes, they don't provide
the information people want from an internet based search. No matter how much they promote their inferior services they will not get people coming back or recommending them.
Who will win? No names, but sites that collect as much relevant information for the visitors to search. That's an impossible task to do nationally. Smaller sites will be able to handle the task as they are dealing with less products/services. Collecting info on all beauty salons and the services they provide is a job that it 2000 times smaller than collecting information for all YP classifications. Say that someone wants a salon that does a variety of treatments and you can provide a search that matches these needs precisely, will the user be happy? Yes, its saved them ages in comparison to phoning around. Will they recommend you? Yes, and maybe even tell the business where they found them.
Local Search is very interesting and I think we will see some serious cash chucked at it, let's position ourselves to be in line for some of that spending.
Do I have reliable percentages for the questions asked? No.Would I share those percentages if I did? Probably not, given their value. Not being mean there, just realistic.
Difficult to see how you market the product to advertisers without providing such data.
Oh, you could probably get away with it for awhile, but soon enough the data will out. Maybe by a competing service, one that wants to argue that "the other guy's model is wrongheaded". My it gets out simply by virtue of the fact that such numbers are important to deciding where one will get his/her best bang for the buck.
