Forum Moderators: phranque
I think the way TV channels have evolved may give us a clue as to how search engines may develop. In the early years of television (in the US), content was delivered by a few networks, with the costs borne by advertisers. (Interestingly, the BBC used a subscription model.)
The early rush to become "web portals" was partly based on the desire of companies to stake out their territory early and become one of a few major "NBCs" of the web. The business model was primarily free service supported by advertisers - not very different from the Big Three that dominated US TV for many years.
The emergence of cable TV, though, gives us a situation a bit more comparable to the Internet. There's a lot more bandwidth available, and the cost of entry is a lot lower since it's not necessary to build a huge network of company-owned (or contractually affiliated) local stations.
What we see now is that the major television networks still exist (with a diminished role), and still use their advertiser-supported, free-to-the-user model. We also see a plethora of other business models:
-high cost, high value content subscription models like HBO (original, high quality series and movies)
-lower cost subscription models with less valuable content, like Encore (recycled movies)
-very low cost (almost micropayment) subscription models that are bundled into the monthly bill, like "free" movie channels
-shopping channels like HSN, where 100% of content is advertising
-advertiser-supported special interest channels
-donation-supported public TV channels
-free, unsupported content (usually of low quality) via local access programming
-hybrid models, like channels that provide free content with ads at some times of the day, and rent their bandwith to infomercials at other times.
I don't think you can stretch the analogy too far, but I think now that most of the search engines have decided they won't be the "NBC" of the Internet (even NBC reached that conclusion!), we will see increased specialization and adoption of different business models. Like the broadcast networks and cable channels, they will have to justify their existence by attracting users. Those that fail to find a useful niche will, indeed, die. However, some number should emerge as solid players providing content that users want, albeit with different services and different business models.
I think the television analogy is quite good.
IMHO build your specialized market share now before the big corporate types catch on.
