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The first and second quarters of 2001 are shaping up to make the dotcom failures of 2000 look like good times. I believe we're going to see Jeeves, GoTo, AV and others reduced to shadows of what they have been and sold off -unable to raise enough revenues to support themselves.
So, among the SE's and directories, who will be left standing with a viable business?
SE's = Google, Fast and AV.
AV are rolling out a series of localised SE's which can be set up in a few day's at very low cost, that may be their saviour.
Fast's dB continues to improve, I think that their results have never been better.
Google is just...huge. They continue to go from strength to strength and have a very effective PR machine in place.
Directories = ODP and Yahoo.
ODP has never been more important, it is a great directory that will stand the test of time. I hope that whatever happens the ODP will always be there.
Google will buy Yahoo and move them away from the portal model.
[reorganized based on discussion below]
strong, well-backed, or low overhead
* definitely survive 2001
- LookSmart <some concerns, stock and management>
- Lycos <some concerns, stock and management>
* moderately positive, should survive 2001
- Northern Light
* weak, burning out in 2001
- Direct Hit <subsidiary of Ask/Jeeves>
???? unknown ????
Anyone know anything that would cause any of these to be recategorized?
Edited by: rcjordan
They must be struggling for some revenue if they jumped on the pop-up window bandwagon.
I think that all of the engines who actuall are in the strong list will survive, but will ink be there to serve the data? If you look at their recent loss for the 3rd quarter, how long can that last? I'm not sure.
I like your list, though. I'd agree on all of them.
Goto could be bought up by somebody else, how about google? Could you imagine, the best for shopping/advertising, combined with google for research. It would be huge!
Ask jeeves/directhit, I'm thinking they are going down in a big ball of fire. I never understood what was special about the service, and the questions you get answers for, you could use another engine and get as good/better results.
And the click tracking technology of direct hit isn't special to me, either. Seems that so many engines are tracking click throughs, and some of them, Excite in particular, are tracking things that, to my mind, should be tracked...although they are hiding it now, it's still visible in the same way the redirect script is on alltheweb.
Good thread, RCJ. Thanks for the list.
re Lycos -How's the telco deal working out for them? Is there still cash backing them? I vaguely remember they were in a moderately strong position to have the resources available to hang on.
Terra Lycos has a cash balance of approximately $3 billion, reaches nearly one out of every two Internet users in the U.S., holds the number one or two position in Canadian, Spanish/Portuguese speaking and Asian markets. They are backed by Telefonica.
Telefonica is Spainís largest company in terms of profits, assets, market capitalisation and employment and have over 62 million customers.
IMHO they need to be moved to strong, along with Hotbot who are also part of the group.
I'm also moving Go/Infoseek and Northern Light into the 'should survive' group. Go; because Disney has shown a willingness to bankroll it in the past. Northern Light; mainly because I haven't heard any bad news.
I know I've seen articles about iWon's business model being a lost cause, but do they have enough cash in the larder to go through the coming year?