Research Suggests Microsoft Threatened By The Rise Of Smartphones

[engine]

There's no question, Android and Apple have the lead, but I cannot do without my laptop/pc as the smartphone and tablet are additional and more convenient hardware. If there were more Windows 8 tablets on the market i'd probably invest in it as an alternative to an Android OS. The Win 8 tablets are just a little too expensive right now.

I'm already planning a new home PC in the next few months.

Microsoft faces a slide into irrelevance in the next four years unless it can make progress in the smartphone and tablet markets, because the PC market will continue shrinking, warns the research group Gartner.

It says a huge and disruptive shift is underway, in which more and more people will use a tablet as their main computing device, researchers say.

In a new forecast published on Thursday morning, Gartner says that by 2015 shipments of tablets will outstrip those of conventional PCs such as desktops and notebooks, as Android and Apple's iOS become increasingly dominant in the overall operating system picture. Android in particular will be installed on more than a billion devices shipped in 2014, says Carolina Milanesi, the analyst who led the research.Research Suggests Microsoft Threatened By The Rise Of Smartphones [guardian.co.uk]

We had a discussion on this previously.
Does Microsoft Still Matter? 2013 Will Decide [webmasterworld.com]

[RhinoFish]

huge and disruptive = understatement. :-)

[vik_c]

So are Facebook..and Google, threatened by the rise of smartphones. Facebook is finding it hard to monetize smartphone traffic. Google has reason to be concerned after 'Facebook Home'. If only there was some sort of middleware to run Android apps on iOS, it would really throw the cat among the pigeons! It would also be an equalizer of sorts given that Android is a free OS. Would democratize the environment especially if someone also came out with a way for non-progammers to build apps, much like anyone who's picked up MS Office can create a small Windows based program using MS Access.

On another note, I have a gut feeling that Facebook Home will lead to quite a few lawsuits around anti-trust, patents and privacy.

[J_RaD]

toys vs tools.

computers these days are fast enough where upgrading every few years isn't really needed. You can keep your PC hardware for 5+ years.

tabs and phones... well tabs are marketed as finger fun toys.

phones... those are subsidized into contracts and given away for free like packs of gum.

so why wouldn't these 2 out ship computers? I know households with a few tabs and the computers still get used.. and the tabs are used as toys, screw around with and give to the kids. quick check here and there then tossed on the table. Things sold on hype will always sell.

Facebook is finding it hard to monetize smartphone traffic

I purposely exclude smartphones and tabs from my paid marketing... facebook isn't the only ones having a hard time monetizing the traffic... maybe because its close to worthless? talk about short/no attention span traffic.

[StoutFiles]

MSoft would be better off making their software work on every OS, and then exploring other areas to make up for lost revenue on OS sales. Getting rid of Windows 8 would be a good start to improve PC purchasing. They are burning money trying to compete in the tablet/smartphone marketplace.

[piatkow]

Has Windows use gone down in absolute terms or is it just a similar sized slice of a bigger cake as smartphones permit more web access?

[graeme_p]

Its relative: its a prediction that tablet and smartphone sales will be higher than those of PCs.

PCs can last for years and we all have them already, tablets are now a partial replacement for PCs (for example, you may need just one PC in a family that previously had two or three, as tablets are used for web browsing and video), and tablets are improving fast (and some are cheap) so there is reason to replace them frequently.

If there are more people out there who have my tendency to break tablets, that may help as well.

[londrum]

i always used to think that i needed windows and office and all the other programs i've got on my computer to do my everyday work, but i bought an ipad a month ago and now im thinkiing of swapping the whole lot for an imac and an iphone instead.

i love the whole 'icloud' thing, where you can do something on one apple machine, and have it available straightaway on all your others too.

ive had a look and you can get all the programs you need for web work on an imac... so goodbye microsoft. i dont have any particular problem with microsoft's stuff (been using it happily for years), but its just nice to have a computer, laptop, ipad and iphone all interconnected as one.

so that one solitary sale -- an ipad -- has led to me buying all the other apple machines and chucking away windows and microsoft's stuff. i cant be the only person who has done that. that is a good reason why microsoft needs to start competing better in the tablet and phone market.

[lawman]

Does DropBox work on Apple products?

[hoosierdraft]

DropBox works well on most Apple products. Firsthand using with iPad with no problems.

[incrediBILL]

What most people ignore, and MS got right, is the difference between a tablet and a laptop is whether it has a keyboard attached or not. Of course you can also put a keyboard with an iPad or an Android tablet too, so MS is late to the game.

Problem is they've lost the mobile market and Linux servers are taking a big bite out of the server market unless it's some corporate servers or some such, so MS is really getting squeezed in every direction except the desktop which would appear to be only going to exist in offices very soon.

My prediction for the future of computing it the average person will only own a smartphone and maybe a tablet to get the bigger screen. With the new devices sporting AllShare (DLNA) you can gain access to even bigger screens without needing a desktop. Desktop computers and laptops will be primarily relegated to the office, and perhaps not even there as I'm seeing more exec types toting iPads instead of desktops or laptops. Bigger computers will probably only exist corporate-wide due to IT policy or some such nonsense for the short term but I think even in the corporate world the tablet is going to pick up more momentum for most workers and that's where MS is hoping to keep those clients with Surface.

As others have mentioned sales are going to suffer because machines are so fast now upgrading will become a hardware compatibility issue in the future, not a speed problem as I've been on the same machine 5 years now and this overclocked quad core gaming system is still providing way more horsepower than I can use when not doing gaming. My wife's machine is the same way, more power than she'll need in the foreseeable future which is bad for MS as they make money when people upgrade.

Don't upgrade hardware, no Windows sold.

Don't upgrade Win 7, no Win 8 sold.

Don't upgrade Office, no cash cow for investors.

If more people do like I do and use OpenOffice, old hardware, pay nothing to the MS upgrade bandwagon, go all Android mobile, and it spells trouble in Redmond.

If Android decided to go desktop, MS could be in real trouble.

[londrum]

being able to search the internet on your TV will probably become widespread fairly soon too, which will be another reason for people not to bother getting a desktop

[incrediBILL]

The cash incentive for ad revenue share on the TV will make it happen if it's ever going to happen. If it turns out people are willing to use the TV for internet searching the cable service providers will include a browser in their DVRs and start supplying a cheap bluetooth keyboard with the DVR as standard gear, just like the remote control. If they find out they can earn substantial revenue they'll give you limited free internet access via the DVR so some people that don't have much use for the web won't even bother paying for it if they can get it via the DVR. More importantly, some that don't use the cable broadband or use some other service will then give the cable operators a shot at a revenue source they didn't previously have.

If I were the cable company, the TV guide would be a web site, instant access, not downloaded slowly over time, it's a joke the way it currently works and I wish I worked there as I'd fix it but I digress...

FWIW, anyone with a game machine attached to their TV, like a Wii or a PS3 can already do it but the Opera browser stinks, doesn't support more than the basic stuff so reading PDFs and such doesn't work, most video doesn't play, and without a bluetooth keyboard it's kind of useless and most people aren't aware they can even use a blutetooth keyboard.

I also think high speed broadband everyone is clamoring for at the desktop is about to shift to 4G hotspots from cell phones and many will just dump their cable broadband altogether leaving the cable companies trying to recover that massive investment while the wireless guys are smiling all the way to the bank.

While it would seem we're drifting OT these changes, just like the smartphone, will also impact MS's bottom line unless they manage to become the DVR perhaps as part of an XBOX. They had some pretty good media software in Win Vista/7 then dumped it while Apple and Google are both making a strong play to get into the TV as my TV.

What that means is less MS desktop, less MSIE browser share, less Bing.

Wake up Redmond, the desk is being stacked against you.