How Big is Ecommerce Going to Get?

[grobe]

During the dot.com boom there was an expectation that would be a massive switch from Brick and Mortar stores to ecommerce. For example one such firm (which went bust) was Webvan, which sold groceries over the internet. Any predictions as to how the situation is going to end up between Brick and Mortar stores and ecommerce?

[larryhatch]

I predict the same massive boom as the pre-bust people, but a gradual boom,
if that is even the right word. Maybe 'shift' is a better word.

A century ago, visionaries correctly saw the automobile putting the buggy whips to rest.
They were right in the long run, but probably lost money.
Why? Too many auto startups that couldn't survive in the best of business environments.
Thus the inevitable shakeout, leaving just a handful of companies that could make it stick.

The buggy whips are still hiding out there somewhere, but cars took over the road.
Brick and mortar won't go away, but it may contract a bit.

I think it depends mostly on the nature of the biz.
I can't see online butchers or bagel makers doing very well for instance.
B&M Travel agencies, book sellers, widget shops etc. could wither away.

Now that the original bubble of enthusiasm has burst, there is room for solid sustainable growth.
As more young people come online and old folks pass on, fears of online purchasing will fade.
All in all, I see online trade expanding greatly in the long run. -Larry

[gpilling]

Do your comparison shopping on the net, then be impatient about getting it and go to the webstores real-world equivalent, like I did with some rollerblades

Unless of course you dont need it in a hurry (something like office supplies) and the store is across town through rush-hour traffic and its easier just to buy your paper by clicking the mouse and having it delivered the next day.

I think that a bigger picture view would take into account the type of product and the impulse and urgency behind getting it. Somethings like travel are already a huge success on the net. I havent booked travel through an agent in more than 6 years. But fun things like rollerblades that I want NOW tend to be purchased in brick-n-mortar stores.

All the shopping for gifts for out-of-town friends and relatives I do online, but intown gifts are bought in real life. It makes shipping so much easier.

How about products with a social stigma attached? Adult toys come to mind. These have been a booming success online.

If ecommerce is around 2% of retail sales now, it will probably go to 30-40% of sales within 10 years - but it will really depend on the type of products. I am never expecting to buy gas for my truck online, for instance. Maybe a discounted gas card though... hmmm...

Commodities will continue to grow. Items that are easily compared like reams of paper, or staples and pens. Items that are subjective, like how shoes fit, will grow less quickly. Items that can't be shipped easily, like fuel, will have a hard time growing at all.

There are always exceptions. I just purchased $5000 worth of wood flooring for my home online, and recieved it yesterday. Three pallets weighing 4800 pounds. Why? Because the local big box retailers were more than double the price. I even tried negotiating with them by bringing in a printout of the webpage and they refused to budge. So I bought online and saved $5000+ .

So to end this rambling --- Ecommerce is going to be HUGE, but will vary highly amongst market segment. Companies that figure out how to deliver products that are hard to deliver will probably find good growth opportunities.

[lorax]

The sky's the limit on what the future holds. I can see many new products and services being offered on the web that are not currently offered.

Phone services are going to explode over the INet as are security and maintenance services. Want your car inspected? Plug it in and let your favorite mechanic access the chip - it'll tell him everthing he needs to know about the condition of your car. Want to know where your car is this very moment? Hop online and access your OnStar account. Need someone to watch over your house while your away? Route your ADT status panel feed over to their home computer. It'll provide them with everything from temperature of the house, control over the alarm system, and whether or not your cats need more water.

Traditional brick and mortar stores will become far more efficient as well. Schedule your car's oil change with Midas. Buy something from a store in CA and return it at a different chain store in New York.

I think we live in a very exciting time!

[larryhatch]

Its quite possible that I am wrong. Maybe the Internet is a passing fad, something like hula hoops.

There was an article in Popular Widgets about what to do with old hula hoops.
One guy suggested melting them down and making Bongo Drums out of them.

Another guy, the one I liked, suggested a tee-shaped fitting which would turn the old HHoops into lawn hoses.
One downside was getting the highly welcome but non-available fitting,
the other problem was getting 'daddy' to drill 998 holes in an old Hula Hoop
instead of getting his ass smashed at the Junior Chamber of Commerce club meetings.

One advantage of E-commerce is that we are less addicted to Old Crow.

Call me crazy, but I think the girls were prettier, or at least friendlier,
in the old days when I was too young to ask them out for a date. -Larry

[gpilling]

Call me crazy, but I think the girls were prettier, or at least friendlier,
in the old days when I was too young to ask them out for a date.

That reminds me of another thing I "bought" online. My wife. Very pretty too. :)

[gigalot]

Another factor to consider is the shopping experience. Shopping will become entertainment, more than it is today. This will provide ample opportunity for niche and luxury players to flourish in the "brick and mortar" space.