Forum Moderators: buckworks
The eroding U.S. economy drove retail sales into their longest slump in at least 16 years, even before this month's market collapse signaled a deepening recession.Consumer purchases fell 1.2 percent in September, extending the decline to three straight months, the first time that's happened since comparable records began in 1992, Commerce Department figures showed today.
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September's drop in retail sales was the largest since August 2005 and followed a 0.4 percent decline the prior month. Excluding autos, sales fell 0.6 percent. Both declines were more than economists had forecast.My emphasis.
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Weakening demand at merchants such as Gap Inc., J.C. Penney Co. and Macy's Inc. also hurt total purchases, signaling retailers may be heading for the worst holiday shopping season in six years.
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Ok. My widgets are not exactly something you give to another person for a holiday gift (most people would be upset to EVER receive my widgets as gifts...but we have always seen a spike during the holiday season). Despite the tones of the article, September was the first month this entire year I saw an increase in the number of sales tickets, revenue and profit. Already this month sales are up about 43.5% over this time last October. I have not changed my site in any way which I think would account for this (no new shopping cart or check out procedure, my conversion rate is close to what it was for October 2007 and so are traffic levels, AdWords spending has been cut drastically. Domain was created in 1998, so a long history, etc). I am especially confused as my widgets would fit under "home improvement" or "construction" -- both of which have been devastated by the housing slump which preceded our current economic woes.
My guess is that there are simply more people (or the same number of people doing more) shopping online to avoid the cost of fuel and they are shopping based on price and price alone. Anyone else bucking the trends shown in the article I quoted? Thoughts?
Anyone expecting their "worst holiday season in six years"?
I am especially confused as my widgets would fit under "home improvement" or "construction" -- both of which have been devastated by the housing slump which preceded our current economic woes.
I think I should clarify the categorization of my widgets: while they are certainly part of any initial construction phases on new housing starts, they are by far and away "finished" goods. By "finished" I mean they would not be the highest priority items when assessing disaster damage and rebuilds, though they would become necessary down the road. I should think my widget would be used 2+ months out from a disaster when the home had been framed but before any drywall had been hung.
However, while pondering my situation further, I think it might be some positive effect (for me personally) of the severe drop-off in new home starts. As I mentioned in the previous paragraph, my widgets would be more suited towards a remodel as opposed to new construction. I am thinking that, as is the trend in previous downturns in new housing starts, those with the means remodel their current residence as opposed to building a new home or moving down the street. This could be my "bump" from such remodel jobs.
I just wish the media and politicians would stop feeding on the negativity. I saw both candidates on TV the other night respond to the economic situation by basically admitting that we are screwed... I don't think it would have killed them to maybe add a little positive reinforcement in there as well... A lot of this is a self fulfilling prophecy. If you keep telling people how bad everything is everyday, they just hold back even more.
I think that this will start to prove more and more true as the months go on.
Ecommerce > Brick & Mortar
I think we are more efficient than brick and mortar business.
I buy all my musical hardware online. Whay sould I go to the store, wait a salesman, receive a hard sales pitch about the products with better profit for the store and wait a week to back to the store until they receive the exact model of guitar I was searching for?
People goes in his own car until it becomes too much expensive or too much slow and then starts using mass transit. This time is becoming now on the "online thing".
Made me think, that just maybe the economy is really not that bad, it's just going through changes.
I know there's a lot more involved then the small sample I used and we really don't know what the long term end results will be.
My guess would be good for some and bad for others.
