Orders from Economically Troubled States?

how state-specific are your web sales trends?

[jsinger]

We have the ability to quantify orders by state. I wondered how hard-hit states such as Florida, California, Arizona and Nevada were holding up compared to the rest of the USA, and compared to states which never experienced much of a real estate bubble.

We're seeing a downturn in orders from California and Florida so far in 2008 versus 2007 and 2006.

Harder to tell about Nevada which is being crushed amid a real estate and tourism/gambling collapse. Sales to Arizona seem quite weak. But those two less populated states represent a pretty small statistical sample.

Especially Interesting is that our sales to perennial basket case Michigan are up in the last year or two in relation to the US as a whole.

Do you see any trends by state or region?

[LifeinAsia]

I think a lot depends on the actual products/services you're selling. Some niches will probably be affected, while others won't see much difference.

[bwnbwn]

yea I am from all over not just one State but from all States. Traffic has doubled but sales have dropped 50% from last year and 75% from the year before.
Some of it is due to federal laws and such so in my sector kinda hard to tell due to the federal laws changing.

LifeinAsia pretty much is correct as to the products selling will effect the % change.

[mattb]

We too watch sales by state.

2008 vs 2007 (as a % of overall sales)

CA - slight drop
FL - moderate drop
AZ - slight drop
NV - large gain (sales almost doubled, although NV is not a large market for us)
MI - flat

Our physical location is not in any of these states.

[jsinger]

You probably have to go back to 2006 to get a base for Florida, and maybe others.

I was in Florida in March 2006 and started noticing reports about the silliness of real estate development there... subdivisions of shoddily constructed homes were being offered almost exclusively to northern 'flippers.' Buyers rarely even saw their 'investments' which looked good in brochures, but might be located a few feet from a blighted industrial district or alligator swamp.

Around that time, I read in the Wall Street Journal that 15% of Florida homes were being bought by flippers. I remember stories from 2005 of developments selling out in hours to novice 'Donald Trumps' from out of town. By late 2006, the Florida home market was crumbling. How surprising!

Saw this today:

California and Florida accounted for 39% of all foreclosures started during the quarter. Those two states as well as six others - Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Rhode Island, Indiana, and Ohio - all had foreclosure start rates higher than the national average.

[HRoth]

You should see the foreclosure figures for Detroit.

I am getting an increase in sales from CA, but I think that is in the nature of what I sell. I am learning that more people become interested in my widgets in hard times.

The one "state" I have seen a drastic falloff in is Japan. I used to get really hefty orders from there. Since their economic downturn, almost zip.

[gpilling]

Sales for us have been weakened in CA, FL, AZ and NV. Other areas, in particular Texas and the South have had a slight uptick this year. Also the farm belt seems to be fine.

I put it down to the real estate crash and the new money coming from oil and corn areas.

[jsinger]

Also the farm belt seems to be fine

Yep, farm land prices were very strong earlier this year and last. Don't know how the recent fall in commodity prices are affecting rural America.

You don't hear a thing on the news about rural land values. Around me, I see little sign that homes prices are falling. But they hadn't gone up much over the past 20 years either (about 4% a year). Mid-westerners still tend to pay down their mortgages, rather than cashing out every cent of equity to buy toys and third homes.

Lot of coastal kooks are suffering: My orders from Ed McMahon are off 62% this year