Forum Moderators: buckworks
Eyeballing my list, I'd say the average loss is an incredible 25-30%. Amazon was the BEST performer, having fallen from the low 90s to $80 yesterday.
Among the doggier issues, stock market bad boy Overstock plummeted from the mid-30s to $11.
1-800-Flowers and jewelry seller Blue Nile were off nearly half.
The NASDAQ average dropped about 13% during that period, the Dow and S&P about 11%.
Compare this dismal ecommerce stock performance with that of headline grabbers Citigroup ($42 to $28) and Countrywide Financial ($16 to $6).
Checked 25 disparate mostly-B/M U.S. retail stocks and found 24 of them off during that period. The S&P Retail Index fell 21%.
However that index is weighted toward giant Wal-Mart, the only rising retail stock in my study. It was 44 around Nov 1 and 47 yesterday. WMT aside, I guess the average retail stock is off nearly 25%.
Ecommerce stocks have certainly done no better than the broader retail market, and likely a bit worse.
"By one common definition, a bear market is marked by a price decline of 20% or more in a key stock market index from a recent peak over a 12-month period."
[edited by: jsinger at 10:04 pm (utc) on Jan. 21, 2008]
This dive is utterly different than the bubble collapse when insane expectations confronted reality. Stock prices collapsed. Many firms failed as vital cash injections from venture capital ended. But web commerce grew nicely throughout the 2000 - 2003 nadir.
Small ecommerce companies that were sensibly managed and financed (most of us here) did very well. The surviving publcly owned commerce firms are now mostly profitable and their stock valuations are more in line with other businesses.
What's going on now? Is ecommerce just another cyclical business like cars or banking, or God forbid, home builders?
My guess is the problem --this time-- has to do with a glut internet sellers and a leveling off of online buyers.
My guess is that your guess is just that, a guess.
My guess is that your guess is just that, a guess.
Guess... in the sense that an experienced pilot (and owner) of a jet looks at a lot of dials and controls, reads reports, makes visual and radar observations, confers with his crew and ground control ... and then makes a "guess" about the progress of his flight.
My to-do list for today:
1. Buy electric car
2. Buy 2 foreclosed houses
3. Build more ecom sites
Amazon was the BEST performer, having fallen from the low 90s to $80 yesterday.
To update, AMZN is now $71.69. Google, which I didn't include among my 20 retailing stocks, has collapsed from $700 a few months ago to $464 yesterday.
The broad market has rallied. but ecommerce not so much.
As of today, the share price of Amazon is $71.69, which is nearly 30% off its peak of $101.9
On a similar vein, the share price of eBay is $27.51 today, almost 35% off its peak of 40.73.
More dramtic still, the share price of Google is $464.19, which is almost 38% off its peak of $747.27.
..sounds like it is getting near time to start buying....
I was just thinking the same thing....
..sounds like it is getting near time to start buying....
I was just thinking the same thing....
Most bubble dot coms never came back. Pets.com (the sock puppet company), Boo, Etoys. All sorts of home delivery grocery stocks such as Webvan. Had an elderly uncle who bought e-music at its IPO (he didnt even own a computer).
X10, the hidden camera company, came within a hair of going public
Some are, but I seriously doubt that places like Amazon will go away.
All the "ill-funded" companies crashed, and I was there to pick up some of the pieces.
Related: Does anyone remember the name of the company that used to pay people to "surf" their site?
I think they paid out a million per week.
There was a company that gave away free computers but you had to use their browser which was loaded with ads. X-10 almost want public to sell tiny cameras to spy on women (well they didn't actually say that. LOL)
Bubble landmark: "In 2000, Network Solutions was acquired by VeriSign, Inc. for $21 billion."
Bellwether e-commerce stock AMZN has fallen from 72 to 65 1/2 in the past few days!
Anyone know of a stock index that only tracks ecommerce issues? I follow ^DOT and ^QNET which track internet stocks in general.
will be interesting to see how this pans out.
they're shrinking my CL's, canceling unused cards
I've gotten the same notices, I find it more amusing than anything. I actually got a credit card offer from a well known company on the same day that I got a notice of cancelation (for non-use) from the same company.
The good news is that we went through pretty much the same thing in the early 90s.
we went through pretty much the same thing in the early 90s.
Bank deposits should be only 90% guaranteed over a tiny amount, say $5,000. I believe that's the way England does it.
Rewards should be built into the system for conservative banks. Something to be said for grey haired geezers running banks and not just hotshot young math PhD's who know how to game the system with indecipherable financial "Products." Most have no interest in that bank beyond their next pay raise.
Very much like Dot Com execs in the 90s. Loyalty was to their stock options, not to the business.
We are in a recession.. this time it may as well be the "great credit crunch". I have excellent credit yet daily i'm getting letters from banks showing they're shrinking my CL's, canceling unused cards and all sorts of stuff. Hell, i think amex does the cl dance monthly now.
will be interesting to see how this pans out.
I'm mostly just seeing the opposite.
I'm getting cards sent to me that I didn't ask for and credit limit raises that I didn't request.
AMEX did suspend our ability to carry a balance on our business card a while back, but they've shown no lack of desire to let us run up as much as we want each month.
As yet, none of either our personal or business credit limits has been altered.
The real test will be later this year when we look to expand our manufacturing capacity. Ours should be "easy" as we've got outstanding personal credit, and our business has a good track record of sales, profits, and growth along with a healthy balance sheet.
