Forum Moderators: buckworks
Since the inception of the Web, online commerce has enjoyed hypergrowth, with annual sales increasing more than 25 percent over all, and far more rapidly in many categories. But in the last year, growth has slowed sharply in major sectors like books, tickets and office supplies.Growth in online sales has also dropped dramatically in diverse categories like health and beauty products, computer peripherals and pet supplies. Analysts say it is a turning point and growth will continue to slow through the decade.
Online Sales Are Losing Steam [nytimes.com]
he wants it RIGHT THEN! How can we "trap" this "compulsive buying" to benefit ecommerce
But that would be the point. Real world shopping is a social experience and satisfies the impulse purchase. If shopping were only about price and not social interaction and experience, then real world stores would not spend so much on marble, granite and wood in their showrooms. Also, in a sea of choice where there are TOO many choices online, it can be comforting to go to a store and have the salesperson tell you what you want.
I'm a tad confused, can you elaborate? How would having 8 search engines (and I assume you mean not just 2 or 3 major ones) improve/increase online sales?
"When asked about the most pressing financial problems their family faces today, Americans mention healthcare costs, lack of money or low wages, and oil and gas prices," Gallup reports. "Healthcare costs are mentioned by 16% of Americans while 13% say low wages and 11% say oil and gas prices. These percentages are virtually unchanged from last month."
I think inflation is catching up with everybody and it shows in "growth in online sales".
Good news is that we have great, hard to manipulate, new state of economy indicator, which can put some perspective on that "very rosy" picture painted by some economists.
1,000 "little" online stores each doing $1M in revenue = $1B. Heck, I bet collectively the forum members here do over $500M online annually.
It's not just this, it's also that the US and Europe aren't the future of ecommerce. The future of ecommerce lies in the same place as the future of commerce in general: India and China.
Once you start having the majority of the 2,000,000,000+ people of those countries online, that will turn them from suppliers of online goods into consumers of online goods as well, and they'll buy more than the US and Europe combined.
that will turn them from suppliers of online goods into consumers of online goods
I don't believe that.
I think it would be hard to reinvent decades of consumerism brainwashing (err...whatever you nice people call american TV, movies and newspapers) in india and china. I think this is certainly a big hope and a large bet for multinational corps...but in reality I'd rather see 2 Billion chinese and indians to continue provide cheap workforce instead. Maybe in 20 or so years....which is a fine mark for multinationals, but half of us fine folks may be out of workforce by then. JMHO
There's a good number of B2B players through which you can get goods from asia. I bet the next big thing will be a B2C player or several - these asians who can handle english and work out shipping issues. Eliminate the middlemen - which most U.S. and european retailers and ecommerce sites are.
I bet collectively the forum members here do over $500M online annually.
You bet conservatively my friend. I venture to wager that it is a much higher figure.
- growing number of people with internet access at all (later DSL-cable)
- growing number of online-shops presenting their items.
- the average time-span people spend online every day.
These growth lines indeed have come close to saturation.
But there is a FOURTH growth line, a psychological one, which has only just begun AFTER buying online has become a custom habbit: To remember in time, that you might take a look at the internet on occasions where you never did before.
Whenever it comes to my mind that I NEED something, my first thoughts virtually walk through the shops I know in my region. From time to time it happens, that I enter three stores failing to find some specific niche item, until I remember that I should have had a look at the internet before moving my ass at all.
This applies to the niche and the longtail, and I'd second what many others said here, that this area is still growing amazingly.
The cited article doesn't differentiate enough: Of course you can't continue 30% growth rates once you have reached 50% market share with online sales for non-innovative products (for which the total market doesn't grow), as I assume is the case for e.g. books, cds or some computer peripherals. Of course you can't grow in markets, where transportation costs become very important, as is the case for every-day-food or bricks and mortar taken literally. But there is thousands of niches, where traditional B&M-shop-owners are fighting with this ever-growing threshold you need to stay above, if you want run such a shop cost-effective. Still many, many of these will have to give up in the near future, in favour of some online retailler.
I doubt, direct sales by indian or chinese manufacturers are a serious challenge in all areas where the average order volume is below 200 $$. Transportation costs are still way too high and will stay so for a very very long time.
The cited article doesn't differentiate enough: Of course you can't continue 30% growth rates once you have reached 50% market share with online sales for non-innovative products (for which the total market doesn't grow), as I assume is the case for e.g. books, cds or some computer peripherals.
Exactly. When internet sales accounted for 0.1% of book sales, then growing at a rate of 100% per year was easy. At 50% of total sales, growing at a rate of 100% is impossible. All curves flatten out over time, and the article was just poorly researched hype.
I can remember similar stuff about the mobile phone market "collapsing" (ie still growing but not exponentially any more).
Look at all those social network sites that are popping up everywhere. Here in Germany we got a facebook clone and e v e r y b o d y is jumping on its bandwagon..if somebody doesnt register there that's almost as bad as not having a cell phone these days lol (so much for peer pressure but u get what I mean).
It's not even like the web is stagnating, its still growing and will continue to grow and chances are e-commerce will not go in the opposite direction.
I would even highly doubt that we've reached a point of saturation, yet. Like someone said the younger generations are growing up with the web even more than my friends or I did..
I predict that in a decade or so from now guys will no longer ask girls for their phone # but itll be "Do you have a myspace?" "Whats your msn screen name?". The web isnt going to be stopped and so isnt e-commerce...
That being said I agree with the person who said spin, spin, spin...but I think from the viewpoint of someone my age (who sees younger brothers of friends grow up with the web like its a telephone) might be insightful. I TRULY believe that asking for a phone # will be replaced with asking for a [enter social network/instant messenger name here] in a decade.
E-Learning will come, too...I think the web isn't even close to having reached its full potential.
Obviously the amount of people trying to market stuff on the internet has increased. That's only going to be bad news for anyone who deals in items that anyone can sell, because you're just going to be lumped into a big heap with all the others. I think if you can make your own products, you are way better off... By doing that, you're already distancing yourself from a huge number of people trying to make it on retailing alone. Assuming the products you make are good. The thing that makes the internet great is also the thing that makes it bad... Good: It can take very little money to start an internet biz, which opens the opportunity to millions of average people. Bad: It can take very little money to start an internet biz, which opens the opportunity to millions of people.
Dave
All the 'make a living from the internet' scams hadn't started yet.
I love the tv ads that have the person saying "I make $5000 in sales online every month, working a few hours per week!". '
Makes me laugh everytime. I need to make $1000 per day to break even.......
I have no problem with the competition being scared off before they even start. If they think the market is saturated or that there is no longer an opportunity for growth, thats ok with me.
There are still plenty of opportunities for growth and new, untapped markets. It just will take a bit more thought and effort to get to them. Survival of the fittest..again, fine by me
