How to estimate type-in traffic

[dailypress]

hello all,

I am in the process of bidding on a premium domain and was wondering how I can get a rough estimate on how many visitors I would receive.

The domain has been registered in 1995 and is a 2 very popular keyword .com

I had read on some blog that you can calculate based on the formula below:

[(Exact) Number of Monthly Searches via Google Planner] * (0.01)

Any comments or other opinions?

[Webwork]

Did you "ask the owner" for stats? That's the best and most direct way.

Trust is an entirely different matter. Size that up beforehand.

I know of no reliable solution or forumla, particularly since traffic comes from around the globe and therefore is very variable in PPC value, search intent, etc.

I would want proof of a VERY LARGE dataset - say 10,000 to 100,000 personally parket domains with lots of history of studying data - before I took someone's "formula" as worthy of even partial consideration. Unfortunately, those with the best data are often the least likely to share their data because such insights offer a competitive advantage - one that likely came at a steep cost. Therefore it's the type of insight not often handed out to the public.

[buckworks]

FWIW, my experience owning a couple of exact match domains is about what the formula would suggest.

In other words, for every 100 people who do a normal search, there might be one who types the domain name directly into the address bar to see what's there. That natural type-in traffic is a big part of what makes a premium domain, premium.

The value of such traffic could vary enormously so as well as trying to predict the number of type-ins you'd also have to estimate the commercial usefulness of the phrase.

Not all of the users who find you via a "curiosity type-in" would do the thing that puts money in your pocket, but some would. You'd have to make some estimates about conversion rates, and also about the value of the user's action. Run some scenarios based on both your most optimistic and your most pessimistic numbers.

As Webwork says, it's nowhere near an exact science to predict this stuff but at least a formula like the one you mentioned might keep you from being unduly optimistic.

As for "ask the owner", some owners will share stats and some won't. I was privy to some negotiations last year where the owner's refusal to share any parking stats caused us to walk away. The domain is still for sale.

[dailypress]

thank you guys. Well since I'm currently bidding on the domain I won't have time to ask the owner for stats, plus I doubt he cares enough to respond and provide me with any details especially with the offers he is currently receiving.

Searching on a few forums I reached to this conclusion:

[Exact Number of Monthly Searches via Google Planner] *
[0.02 Type Ins] *
[0.80 CTR] *
[0.60 * Average CPC for US location only]

= earning for a premium parked domain $/month

if anyone has actual data please let me know if the formula and your earning is within range of the formula that Im guessing may give me a rough estimate of the earning (assuming we dont send traffic from other sites)

* filtered US traffic: since over 90% of my sites are US based generating over 90% US traffic
* 80% CTR: for Parked Pages once you customize the Template and make it look more relevant + plus considering that some may click on more than 1 link
* 60% is because most companies offer lower than Google Adsense + factoring in the companies share

Unfortunately I don't have many premium domains to base my calculation on trial & error and experience. But if I win the domain, I will let you know my results and a better formula.

[buckworks]

Good luck!