But how do I decide what to offer? Since there's no web site, there are no criteria to value it other that what someone is willing to pay. I'm afraid that just saying I'm interested will increase its value in the eyes of the owner.
Say I offer $100, and the owner at least negotiates. Assume further that we come to an agreement on price. How does one safely consumate the deal? The agencies that handle escrow for domain transactions seem very expensive and not relevant to low-dollar deals.
I feel like all this has probably been covered somewhere but I've searched extensively and haven't found any reliable info that relates directly to this situation. So please forgive me if this question has been asked before, and kindly point me to any relevant information.
I've had my best experiences when I've been straightforward, open and honest. I'll even give a straightforward assessment of what I think the range of buyers might pay - if the person was willing to wait in hope of the possibility of doing better.
Why might that be the case - that being open and honest works - at least in my experience? That not worrying that I might "tip them off"?
Some people may argue that fools abound. Might be true, but that's not my view nor my experience. I think there's plenty of people who have the capacity to look after their self-interest. I think if you approach someone from the "I don't want to tip them off or excite them" angle you are approaching as if they're a fool - and people pick up on that, don't like you and begin by not trusting you.
Your mileage may vary.
And yes, there are true believers. People who will hold domains forever in the belief that they have a winner and no amount of rational communication will alter that thinking. It's just part of domain reality. When you meet it you promptly recognize it and move on. Let the person dream. Who knows? Somebody wins the lottery, don't they?
Unless the person is making money off the domain by parking it and unless that person has traffic stats the valuation issue can vary widely.
Here's what I think will work best for you: Determine what you are prepared to pay for the domain and then start by offering 75% of that amount.
Set a price based upon value to you and ability to pay.
A more technical approach is to get the domain owners cooperation in running a traffic test. That assumes a more sophisticated/cooperative seller. The domain is parked through a PPC company, traffic and income studied and offers made based upon traffic.
Time and again, in forums where members can post up value assessments, I've seen wide variation in pricing. There are large clusters of $0 value domains (there's plenty of junk) and there's large clusters of sub-thousand dollar evaluations.
Then there's the $$$,$$$+ valuations and in that realm the stadard deviation of informal appraisals tends to fall into the $$$,$$$ range. Go figure.
Take a look at the domain sales history at DNJournal for the past 2 years. That might give you some idea of market valuations and compare that to the domain you have in mind.
Still don't know how to handle the transaction if we do come to an agreement in the low hundreds. I know it's hard to talk about specific firms on the forums, so let me ask this: at that price do you just exchange written promises and hope for the best, or should I look for a third party to handle the transfer of ownership?
For many people reputation is money: No reputation = no trust/money, so don't compromise reputation for any sum of money.