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Predicting community site growth

Study uses sales model to predict site adoption

         

zulu_dude

12:26 pm on Apr 6, 2006 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



Interesting article at [ijikm.org ] (pdf file)

Not sure how useful the study really is, as it had quite a small sample group. It would be fascinating to be able to do such a study for big community sites such as myspace.

rogerd

3:02 am on Apr 12, 2006 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Administrator 10+ Year Member



>>quite a small sample group

That's for sure. Trying to develop a model for member growth in a community with a few hundred members is pretty tough.

I'm a believer in the value of academic modeling, but there are sure a heck of a lot of variables in community growth when some peak at dozens of members while others hit millions. Publicity, viral marketing, etc., all have huge impacts.