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Analyst: MySpace Value Could Be $15 billion

Wall Street analyst speculates three year value could be huge

     
7:20 pm on Sep 28, 2006 (gmt 0)

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This sounds a bit like bubble talk, but one Wall Street analyst says MySpace could be worth $10 to $20 billion (yes, that's nine zeroes) in three years, based on its unprecedented growth rate, its international appeal, and its ability to distribute intellectual property.

[msnbc.msn.com...]

7:23 pm on Sept 28, 2006 (gmt 0)

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From what I've read he based that on a CPM of $15 and the fact that 80% of the videos don't contain copyright issues.

Good luck with both of the above statements.

7:32 pm on Sept 28, 2006 (gmt 0)

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Hmmmm, buy myspace for 10-20B or buy 10-20 B2 bombers for 1B a pop.

So many options.

7:41 pm on Sept 28, 2006 (gmt 0)

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Dow 36000; BUY NOW and retire in 6 months! It can only go up :)
7:55 pm on Sept 28, 2006 (gmt 0)

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Hmmmm, buy myspace for 10-20B or buy 10-20 B2 bombers for 1B a pop.

So many options.

..Either one could bomb, IMO.

8:23 pm on Sept 28, 2006 (gmt 0)

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With numbers that far out it's beyond bubbletalk.

I vote for "hubbletalk".

As in Hubble Deep Space Telescope.

8:57 pm on Sept 28, 2006 (gmt 0)

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imho usage and coverage are massively overestimated these days.
what to do with 90 million active community users far from being in a buying mood?
worst case audience: internet savvy kiddies looking for friends and fun.
web 2.0 nonsense, really.
9:24 pm on Sept 28, 2006 (gmt 0)

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moTi raises a good point, but the need for some way to build a brand is needed today.

If you want to get people talking about BLANK cars or BLANK clothes or BLANK shoes or BLANK cellphones or whatever, you've first have got to have a name they have seen before.

So, this isn't about pay per click. It's about a place where you can reach a large group of people with LOGO so when they are ready to buy BLANK and they see your LOGO, they'll feel as if they have heard of it, so it must not stink. And they'll consider it and maybe buy it. If they have never heard of LOGO, the audience will not buy the cellphone or shoes or pants just because it works or fits or the price is right.

Still, $15 billion? That's BLANK.

9:29 pm on Sept 28, 2006 (gmt 0)

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Big media companies don't care about pay-per-click and "buying moods", and they don't value their properties that way.

Eyeballs = influence. The opportunity to influence 90 million users can create million-dollar pop stars, hit tv shows, sold-out movie theaters and lifelong brands.

By the way, how many of you were mocking Murdock a year ago when he bought MySpace for $500 million?

9:52 pm on Sept 28, 2006 (gmt 0)

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right, so in regard to its difficult audience the only way to go for myspace et al is cpm and branding. for that, they need to change the way internet advertising is working today:

- pushing advertisers from direct marketing back to mass marketing
- enforcing an adequate pricing model similar to mass media

good luck. after all, if they don't succeed, they still can show their own (news corp) ads. unlike youtube, who show adsense cpc.

12:27 am on Sept 29, 2006 (gmt 0)

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>>By the way, how many of you were mocking Murdock a year ago when he bought MySpace for $500 million?

Hey, I think it's worth $100 billion. Does that make Murdock a genious?

FIM had an operating loss in their fiscal year ending June 30, 2006. It appears they are still writing down their acquisitions... unless someone thinks that:

"... amortization of purchased intangible assets." is something else besides admitting they overpaid for something.

3:20 am on Sept 29, 2006 (gmt 0)

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That's right moTi: That's the holy grail that people are looking for on the web--the first network on the web with enough audience to be a branding force.

Google hasn't done it yet. Yahoo thought it would be them (I did, too.) Will it be user-produced content of mySpace? Maybe so.

The guy who produces those Law and Order TV shows has got to be watching video moving to the web with interest. You got the popular content, you don't need a distribution channel like a TV network--it's open to most everyone with the web.

Those cable biz models that are counting on pay-per-view income had better go back to their spreadsheets and adjust their numbers. Here's some good news for Comcast and Verizon: CNN and Weather Channel, etc. are now getting paid for providing content to the cable firms. The cable firms will not have pay them much longer--all content will be available via broadband.

AOL tried and failed to make content a deciding factor on what technology channel consumers bought. NBC, ABC, CBS, FOX, Comcast, Mindspring--they are losing their seat at the table to lonelygirl15 and mySpace. Content rules. Finally.

4:52 am on Sept 29, 2006 (gmt 0)

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The Web 2.0 crash is going to be much worse than the post Y2k one that's for sure.
6:11 am on Sept 29, 2006 (gmt 0)

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lol... (thats all i want to say right now)
12:26 pm on Sept 29, 2006 (gmt 0)

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what to do with 90 million active community users far from being in a buying mood?

That isn't true. Neither is the claim of 100 million+ users. Those are just *accounts* - testing of random samples pegs the number more around 45 million (still big, but 90 million is an exaggeration of 100%)

12:21 am on Oct 5, 2006 (gmt 0)

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Crazy money for a crazy site.
9:21 am on Oct 5, 2006 (gmt 0)

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>> MySpace could be worth $10 to $20 billion ... in three years

Any analyst who believes he can see MySpace in three years time needs an analyst.

But you knew that :)

9:35 am on Oct 5, 2006 (gmt 0)

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... I just visited MySpace; the UK site has two front-page promos for a "Brotherhood" premiere, happening on MySpace on 2 Oct.

With that kind of Quality Control, I'd go for $20-30bn.

12:28 pm on Oct 7, 2006 (gmt 0)

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Why would anyone buy Myspace? What's so good about it? It's just a display of some singles wanting to date somebody. No substance, nothing unique.
5:11 pm on Oct 25, 2006 (gmt 0)

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Myspace is particually hard to penetrate for businesses wanting to reach their target market without getting banned. However there are alternative social networks that are targeted for business owners.
2:08 pm on Oct 27, 2006 (gmt 0)

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>>Why would anyone buy Myspace?

MySpace isn't so much a dating site as an online replacement for the shopping mall and other teen hangouts. There's a lot of interaction there, and a lot of pageviews and time online. Marketing to teens is tough, and it's having them accessible at MySpace for advertising that has created so much value.

The big unknown that I see is caused by other teen market characteristics: fickleness and fads. Today's hot brand can be tomorrow's junk if it gets overexposed, loses its cachet, etc. Some brands have stayed strong over time in the teen market, and that will be MySpace's challenge.