Forum Moderators: phranque
I am wondering if there is a way to predict what the traffic growth curve will be like for a site.
Hopefully I can explain this clearly enough.
I'm not talking just about what an improved ranking can do for traffic, although that certainly would be a part of the issue.
Let's say a site has had a historic traffic flow that has reached 1,000 - 1,200 uniques and 6,000 - 7,200 page views per day as a base level.
Traffic increases to perhaps 1,200 - 1,500 uniques and 7,200 - 9,000 pages for a couple months.
Then it goes to 1,500 - 1,800 uniques and 9,000 - 11,000 pages.
So we've got ...
1,000/1,200 Uniques & 6,000/7,200 pages
1,200/1,500 Uniques & 7,200/9,000 pages
1,500/1,800 Uniques & 9,000/11,000 pages
That's a pretty decent growth rate, at least it seems so to me, but can it be sustained? At what point in a curve is growth likely to slow down or level off?
Or is it even possible to predict this?
This is without a lot of "optimizing" on a day to day basis, so the basic site grows mostly because of new content on new pages.
3 points likely aren't enough to get a good enough idea of what your S will look like.
There's an acceleration of growth, then a deceleration of growth, and then somewhat of a flattening if you're in a niche, which many of us are. Just like the acceptance of cell phones, PDAs, etc.
One man's opinion and observations.
The S curve sounds reasonable.
My traffic really seems to have been picking up lately. I half ways assume that has to be because of other sites misfortune more than my skills. I was just wondering if it was possible to get any kind of idea where it might go to.
Maybe I need to sort out more numbers.
