i think it is safe to say that if your destination url is relevant and you can get people clicking on your ad you'll probably eventually get a top 3 position for a $3 bid.
you may start out paying more and end up paying less.
the adwords learning center section on Optimizing Ad Performance [google.com] might be a helpful start.
I initially set bids according to client goals (priorities, positioning, easing into a new campaign or aggressively targeting a new audience, etc.).
I let my campaigns run a day or maybe two and then I go back and tweak my bids to get the positioning or results that I'm looking for or to deal with inactive keywords.