So I am wondering if the estimator is seriously inaccurate.
Any thoughts.
So I am wondering if the estimator is seriously inaccurate.
Yes, it is.
We started a new campaign right before the weekend and based upon the traffic estimator we set the max bids on the terms to anywhere from 25 to 50 cents, which according to the estimator would show the ads on the first page, position 8.0 or less. But when we went in today to look at the ads they either show up on the 3rd or 4th page or don't show up at all. The daily budget is fine, twice as much as the estimator says we should spend, and we set it up to show in the major English speaking countries...so its not a problem of not having the right ISP.
One thing to keep in mind when you are targeting several countries is that each is a unique competitive marketplace - and the Traffic Estimator is giving you an estimate across all of them.
Get ready for one of my famous silly examples. OK, here it is:
* Lets say you are using the keyword 'felindrical widgets' in two countries.
* In Country A 'felindrical widgets' are extremely popular (read: competitive) and your Max CPC has you showing in 29th position on average.
* In Country B 'felindrical widgets' are a product that everyone hates, so no one is bidding on that keyword. And because of this lack of competition, that same Max CPC has you showing in the first position on average.
* In this case your average position across both countries is 10 - but in reality, in one country you are showing really high, and in the other country really low.
So although the average is actually spot on, the results you see in each individual country will make you think it is not.
Hope that makes at least some sense. If not, then, well, I'll try again.
AWA
PS - In case anyone wonders, felindrical means 'shaped like a cat'.
* In this case your average position across both countries is 10 - but in reality, in one country you are showing really high, and in the other country really low.
Does the tool use a weighted average based on impressions? If not, this may be the reason for some of the substantial errors?
MQ
P.S. I prefer canindrical widgets ;-).
Does the tool use a weighted average based on impressions? If not, this may be the reason for some of the substantial errors?
I'm not really aware of the nitty-gritty details of the algo, mquarles. But I'll see if I can find out more and post again later. It's likely to be a day or two though, as I've gotten quite busy in the past few weeks - and it doesn't seem to be slowing down! Funny how that works. I'll do my best, though.
AWA
I am just now getting to WebmasterWorld for the first time today (!), as it has been an especially busy day.
And, unfortunately, I'll be out of the office on Friday. Back ASAP with more info though.
My apologies.
AWA
The most accurate way to judge traffic and cost-per-click has become to actually run an Ad and observe the results. The only problem with this method is the time delay before Adwords stats are available.
Does the tool use a weighted average based on impressions? If not, this may be the reason for some of the substantial errors?
Finally got a bit more info on this, mquarles - my apologies for the delay.
While I'm not able to go into the particulars of the algo, the short answer to your question is Yes.
Since I can still hear my English teachers reminding me to use complete sentences: Yes, the tool does take into account the varying traffic levels (impressions) in each country you've targeted.
AWA
/unless the stats are about 15 hours behind, I would say that yes the estimator is way off. Only US targeting here so no other countries involved.
Edit: Average position is 5
