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Traffic Estimator Has Gone Mad

Or Is it to be believed.

         

shelbeesmom

1:10 pm on Jul 12, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



I found a "niche" market the other day. Set up the campaign. Google estimated 1,125 clicks for .05 cents with a 1.7 page rank average.
I thought, "Oh goody" and started to work.
The last week, I've averaged 2 clicks a day. Spending more money does NOTHING to change the stats....so why would G estimate 1,125 clicks a day.....when reality is barely 2 clicks?
This is NOT a seasonal item. It's an extremely HOT item as it gets TV coverage. I'm totally confused!
Help!
Thanks!
Shelbeesmom

AdWordsAdvisor

10:17 pm on Jul 12, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



I found a "niche" market the other day. Set up the campaign. Google estimated 1,125 clicks for .05 cents with a 1.7 page rank average.
I thought, "Oh goody" and started to work.
The last week, I've averaged 2 clicks a day...

Shelbeesmom, the Traffic Estimator, even under ideal circumstances, will only give you an estimate. And in my opinion, the information in the estimator which is the least meaningful is the number of clicks it predicts you'll get in a day.

Why? Because the number of clicks you actually get in the real world is entirely dependent on factors the tool can know nothing about. Primarily, these factors are:

* How well targeted is the ad to the keyword that was searched on?

* How well written is the ad?

Let's say,for example, that you enter the keyword 'software' into the Traffic Estimator. It will probably tell you that you will get a hundreds of clicks. Why? Because many thousands of people will search on a phrase that has the word 'software' in it during a 24 hour day. And the system figures that an average number of those people will click on your ad. Think roughly 2%.

Now imagine that thousands of folks search on the word 'software', and they are shown an ad about, say, really soft cotton undershirts. Well, then maybe the ad will get one click. Or maybe it won't.

So if the system predicted that you'd get 1,125 clicks, it really only means that it expects tens of thousands of folks to do a search that includes your word. And it expects about 2% of them to click on the ad that you show them. However, if only two people a day click on the ad, it means the rest of those who saw it thought it wasn't relevant to their search.

Bottom line, the keyword is probably way too general, and/or the ad that appears for it is probably not focused enough.

Just an educated guess. ;)

AWA

salsacrazy

11:33 pm on Jul 12, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Rerun the estimator for your keyword.

It varies wildly at times, giving totally meaningless results. When it decides to be accurate, its usually accurate to an order of magnitude only. For what you're seeing, you need to rerun the estimator.

Also check out what overture's traffic estimator says for the same keyword.

shelbeesmom

3:21 am on Jul 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Yes, I DID check overture and the results were extremely similar. I also just did a random search on google and, I mean, this is a HOT topic and there was only 1 ad running....even on the exact match....3 and 4 word phrases...there was open field.

Overture showed an incredible amount of search/result ratios with almost NO google ads covering it...
I am astounded at why I'm not at least getting impressions!

For 7 days now...not a SINGLE impression on 2 ad groups and minimal results on 1. Google has not sent me a notice about mispellings...or disabled keywords...credit card limits....NOTHING.
Let me give you a hint.
Let's say the ad is for "learning to gamble in Vegas".....tens of thousands of people try to "win" at gambling in Las Vegas. (the ad isn't for gambling).
So I type in all forms of that and it shows 5,000 searches a month with 7,000 results....and NO GOOGLE ADS.

That is what I am seeing here. At least my impressions should be out of this world...even IF the ad isn't worth clicking on.
Anyhow...now I'm screeching....But you get the jest of it!
Thanks for any help you can give me!
Shelbeesmom
<///><

salsacrazy

10:36 am on Jul 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Make sure you're using all 3 forms for the keywords, eg:

keyword
[keyword]
"keyword"

and broaden the number of similar variants you are showing your ads for.

Also make sure your ads are showing for the USA, in the account settings, and that your daily budget is set very high (eg $1000).

shelbeesmom

12:51 pm on Jul 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Yes my campaign settings are set to $15,000/day....with content AND search checked....**sigh**.....ok...I will go back in and review!
Thanks!

AdWordsAdvisor

5:51 pm on Jul 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



For 7 days now...not a SINGLE impression on 2 ad groups and minimal results on 1. Google has not sent me a notice about mispellings...or disabled keywords...credit card limits....NOTHING.

shelbeesmom, I know I have been returning to this theme a lot in the past few days - but I hope that you'll contact AdWords support via phone or email. These folks can take a look a the actual account, and most often can (quite quickly) tell you what is up, and what to do about it.

Best of success!

AWA

shelbeesmom

6:08 pm on Jul 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Thanks AWA when I get a break at work I will!