Adsense predicting earnings increase in dashboard message

[Sgt_Kickaxe]

I'm seeing a message in my dashboard that suggests I enable images in a particular unit and the message has a prediction of a low double digit percentage increase on earnings if I do. Has anyone else seen the suggestions with an actual revenue increase prediction before?

I have tested images on this particular unit before and though the payout per click was better the CTR went through the floor and I lost money. There is a link to "learn more" next to the recommendation and the more is as follows

Recommendation to opt in to image ads in a text-only ad unit. We've run a simulated experiment on your site's ad traffic. It shows that some of your ad units, which are currently enabled for text ads only, could earn more if they were also enabled for image ads.

Google has no reason to deceive me but this particular message, with suggestions of enabling images, has stung me in the past. Have they improved their simulated experiment enough to give it a go now?

edit: decided to throw 100,000 impressions at it. go Google go.

2nd edit: omg I have glazed donuts and a man holding an inertube looking at some gym equipment on my site... and the site is about none of these things. /cringe

[Windslide]

I got that same message about 2 months ago, I enabled images for ads. In the message they predicted a 40% increase for that particular ad if i turned to images/texts. But nothing. My CTR% keeps on going down the hill. Not so sure about what's going on with AdSense.

[Reno_Chris]

omg I have glazed donuts and a man holding an inertube looking at some gym equipment on my site...

Exactly the reason I dont have images on my site. They seem to have no relation whatsoever to the content of my site (which is a comparatively narrow niche). Just because the geniuses at the G-plex have made a computer model that supposedly simulates your site does not mean that the model is accurate in any way. I've gotten a number of messages about enabling image ads and my experience is they always result in significantly lowered CTR. Your actual experience is far more accurate than some one-size-fits-all G-model.

[netmeg]

Images seem to work well for me.

But Google sends you messages to serve Google. And their "simulated experiments" may well be run on a GROUP of sites, of which your site could be one, and on average the GROUP showed improvement, which doesn't necessarily mean you would. It's hard to imagine Google being able to scale individual simulated experiments, even if they just picked sites above a certain threshold of traffic.

I'm all for testing, and I'm always doing it. But I treat all the helpful hints in my AdSense dashboard with skepticism.

[DaStarBuG]

Here is the blog post about it on the inside AdSense blog: [adsense.blogspot.com...]

[fanboy]

Their suggestions have never been as good as my experience with my visitors. I've attempted to alter my ads as they recommend and it's been followed each time by an earnings drop. At this point I just ignore them; I know my site better than some automated process.

[ember]

I was told that if I added image ads to the mix, my earnings would increase by 400%. I added them, and earnings increased a bit, but not by 400%.

[IanCP]

I take messages from AdSense with a grain of salt.

Those kids live on a distant planet. Maybe having a working web site should be a minimum requirement to work for AdSense.

[HowYesNo]

a few years ago images were bad, poor ctr, poor click value

but last year i tested them again and my earnings increased by 50%, now i almost have all images on my sites, but i'm still testing text ads

[Atomic]

Images both increased my revenue and improved my bounce rates. But you have to keep tabs on the ads themselves because once in a while an ad is served that hurts both.

I also use a mix of image and test ads. I have an image at the top of the site. The rest are text/image and I let Google decide which is better.

[loner]

Great, and if you don't do what they ask, they want to know why. The increase should be as dramatic as these muscle-heads predict. 100,000 impressions to make an impression on me.

[Sgt_Kickaxe]

Well, the prediction was off as my site lost revenue with images enabled, I've confirmed it's not for my niche, but I did notice that a smaller site of mine increased in earnings a little. I make my guides available for download on that site and the images mostly have a big "download" button on them. It's easy for visitors to mistake my download button for the(often very creative) download button image in the adsense ads.

Unfortunately that's a bit deceptive and not what I want either. The text ads are much more properly targeted, at least for me. it's nice to read that they work for some though.