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Best guesses for when the upturn will begin?

...adsense earnings have fallen off a cliff

     
7:53 pm on Jun 7, 2009 (gmt 0)

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imagine a man walking along the edge of a beautiful cliff, and then slipping on some excrement and plummeting to his death. that is pretty much what has happened to my adsense earnings this last month.

probably started around the end of april, before recovering a little tiny bit first week of may, and then heading south. shows no signs of slowing either. i'm now down to about half what i was earning at the end of april. the last two days have been truly awful.

i've seen some graphs about the slump in eCPM for various different countries (uk, spain, france), and they all show drops of nearly 50% from about December 08 to February 09. i'm guessing the economy has only got worse since then.

so instead of another depressing thread about how we are all doomed to die a penniless death, i was wondering if anyone has some good guesses about when the upturn will begin.

i figure that a lot of advertisers plan their budgets quartley and half-yearly, so the earliest that we might realistically expect an upturn is july. probably a bit optimistic though.

6:46 pm on July 10, 2009 (gmt 0)

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If people are not spending, then how come adwords are not cheaper during "crisis"?
10:17 pm on July 10, 2009 (gmt 0)

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If people are not spending, then how come adwords are not cheaper during "crisis"?

Some people are spending, even in niches where spending is purely discretionary. There just aren't as many of them as there were a year ago.

Just as important, AdWords/AdSense is an auction-based system. If advertisers are forced to compete aggressively for the prospects who are still spending, their competition will tend to drive up bids. (That may be why some AdSense publishers have reported significant gains in earnings per click even though their clickthrough rates aren't as high as they were before the current economic crisis.)

3:43 am on July 11, 2009 (gmt 0)

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I'll buy that. EPC so far this month is higher for me than same period 2008.
1:16 pm on July 11, 2009 (gmt 0)

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So who cares about the CAUSE for higher priced adwords? discretionary theory of relativity, electromagnetism, who cares?

We KNOW for a fact adwords prices are up.

My question is simple: shouldn't adsense be proportional to adwords on the content network?

1:37 pm on July 11, 2009 (gmt 0)

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Well, just because people are spending more doesn't mean you get more overall. Your point, is not that simple.

Due to the economy and unemployment etc. people are clicking less, so there is less traffic for advertisers, so they have to bid more to try and get the same # of visits they were getting.

This means your cpc my go up, but due to a lower ctr you get the same or less.

This is just one example, there are more.

2:25 pm on July 11, 2009 (gmt 0)

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So who cares about the CAUSE for higher priced adwords?

Well, you did ask "why."

Knowledge is power. Ignorance isn't always bliss.

6:41 pm on July 11, 2009 (gmt 0)

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Well, just because people are spending more doesn't mean you get more overall. Due to the economy and unemployment etc. people are clicking less

Let me try to get this straight: so you're saying they're spending more on adwords but there are less clicks? So the clicks are more expensive? I mean, one of you is in contradiction....or this thread makes zero sense.

, so there is less traffic for advertisers, so they have to bid more

OK, so clicks are more expensive? Then how are they worth near nothing on the adsense content network?

6:42 pm on July 11, 2009 (gmt 0)

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Well, you did ask "why."

I did not. Go back and read what I asked.

Knowledge is power. Ignorance isn't always bliss.

You don't get invited to parties, do you?

6:46 pm on July 11, 2009 (gmt 0)

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PS. I'm honestly trying to understand. If I felt eveyrthing was ok, I would not be asking.

I see Google's earnings are high, adwords are high, only adsense publishers complaining all across the Web. I can't be making this up....

8:52 pm on July 11, 2009 (gmt 0)

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Seems pretty simple to me.

Lets say there we're 1 million clicks on the network a month before the recession, now lets say there are only 250,000 because no one is clicking as they don't want to buy.

Those adwords users are now getting 75% less trafic, so they need to up their bids to get some more traffic from others, they in turn up their bids.

Supply and demand.

before there were more clickers but maybe less conversion, so the price of traffic was lower. Now there are less clicks but the people clicking are probably more serious buyers, so conversion is better, so adwords users can afford to pay more, and have to as there is more competition for the low traffic numbers.

My earnings are the same pretty much, except i have a much lower CTR, but CPC is up a fair bit and the exchange rate too makes things even out for me roughly the same.

3:03 am on July 12, 2009 (gmt 0)

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OK, so clicks are more expensive? Then how are they worth near nothing on the adsense content network?

If your clicks are "worth near nothing," I can think of at least three possible reasons:

1) Your topic attracts ads with low bids.

2) The ratio of publisher supply to advertiser demand is unusually high for your topic.

3) Your clicks are being "smart-priced," which means you and Google are getting less for those clicks because advertisers are getting a discount from their nominal bids. (See The Facts about Smart Pricing [adsense.blogspot.com] at the official Google AdSense Blog.)

Other factors could come into play, too: Advertisers can block sites if they choose, or they can pick the sites where they want their ads to run.

For what it's worth, some publishers (such as Dave_Hybrid in the previous post) have reported increases in earnings per click during the current economic slump.

3:41 am on July 12, 2009 (gmt 0)

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Since advertisers don't pay per impression, but by click, and assuming people who click are interested in buying, the seller still makes his usual profit, recession or not. The ROI is the same. Maybe that's why for many the EPC is stable.

However, since consumers aren't spending as much, they don't click ads because they don't plan on buying anything, and publishers suffer from low CTR.

Seems to be my current predicament.

8:29 am on July 12, 2009 (gmt 0)

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Don't know if this helps, but we spend a lot on Adwords. We've cut back heaps (PPC bids) on all adsense/content sites because the converts are getting poorer than before, it seems the clicks are still there, but people are just viewing, not buying. I suspect a lot of other advertisers are doing the same. Lowering their PPC bids, and others frankly just stopping their adsense campaigns, thus less competition bidding those keywords/sites, causing lower ppc payout fees.
12:33 pm on July 12, 2009 (gmt 0)

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I don't know anymore. Feeling frustrated! I have been charting EPC and it is trending downward ever since April 24th.
I look at my stats daily and paste them into an Excel workbook which develops my designed KPI (Key Performance Indices).
YTD to LY, All Time trends, Day of Week Trends etc.
Bottom line as of yesterday -
Using percent Change compared to 2008 by day.

Ads are up by 53.3%
Clicks are up by 90.7%
CTR is up 24.4%
eCPM is up by 13.4%
Total Revenue is up73.9%
BUT the Revenue paid per click is down-8.8%

Rev per click dropped below LY on Apr 24 and is continuing to slide downward.

3:39 am on July 13, 2009 (gmt 0)

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To answer to OP post:
I don't know, but what I do know is that my stats have been abysmal the past two days. 70 - 80 % down.

Has there been another public holiday in the USA this weekend or something?

5:04 am on July 13, 2009 (gmt 0)

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I'd say signor_john nailed it on his 3rd suggestion: i'm getting smart priced.

I wonder what my grandma would call "smart pricing" other people's hard work. She'd call it something else.

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