Forum Moderators: martinibuster
the data from the most recent quarter is from their conference call that just completed. the press release is here:
Is that the bottomline of the large article?
Google's REVENUE (NOT PROFIT) from partner sites (that includes us) dropped 3% year to year and 3% this quarter to last. (that' interesting that it actually did not drop within 2008).
What that means is advertisers are paying less to advertise on our sites, or there are less advertisers, etc, while at the same time, advertising on GOOGLE sites brought increased 6% year to year...blah blah.
It also almost certainly means that CTR dropped badly on content partner sites, resulting in less revenue, but that's always been my contention.
There's more interesting stuff, but too much gets overwhelming
So, there's no doubt that advertiser behavior accounts for drops, BUT so does visitor behavior.
Bottom line. Less money in the bucket from which google pays us, while more money in the bucket they have for their sites. No surprise.
Couple that with differential distribution of money from our bucket, re: sectors, niches, and you can get huge individual website owner crashouts as a result.
This is the only kind of pressure that will force Google to increase publisher payouts in order to stem further diversification.
The percentage of revenue paid to publishers is already high. (Read the earnings report.) What's more, the idea of "diversifying away from AdSense" is nothing new: after all, Web publishing existed long before AdSense was introduced in 2003, and most medium to large media sites use AdSense as only one source of revenue.
the idea of "diversifying away from AdSense" is nothing newThat's what I said, when I mentioned this being a goal for lots of established publishers for some time.
Read between the lines. All publishers are lumped together in those numbers. The big players get much more favorable rates like AOL taking 90%. While small publishers get around 65%. This all came out a few years ago. Was mentioned here and elsewhere. People in this forum pretty much ignored it.
The percentage of revenue paid to publishers is already high.
While small publishers get around 65%.
I've seen discussions about this going back for years, and the estimates have always been in this range. Frankly, what's the problem with that? Even with Google skimming as much as 35% off the top, I'm earning much more from AdSense than I could if I pursued other programs or my own ad serving, and with far less work on my part. If a publisher CAN earn more outside AdSense, then of course they should leave.
I've seen discussions about this going back for years, and the estimates have always been in this range. Frankly, what's the problem with that?
There's no problem at all, because (a) Google isn't guaranteeing or even hinting at a specific percentage in its recruitment materials, and (b) most ad networks take a significantly bigger cut than the guess of 35% for Google (which guru5571 stated as is it were a fact and not the kind of speculation that passes for fact among the credulous).
I'll also point out that the notion of publishers abandoning AdSense for greener pastures is based on a misconception that there are greener pastures for Web publishers who do poorly with AdSense. Fact is, the publishers who are most likely to leave are those who are worth least to Google. Let's say that the lowest 10% of AdSense publishers (as ranked by eCPM) were to jump ship and go to other ad networks. If anything, that would make Google's content network more attractive to advertisers while making those rival networks less attractive to advertisers (since the rival networks would be absorbing Google's leavings). Who knows? Maybe Google is culling the herd by encouraging the prospective cullees to cull themselves.
So maybe my traffic grew more than that of AdSense network or maybe G gave me more than other publishers or some combination of these.
Fact is, the publishers who are most likely to leave are those who are worth least to Google.
A drop in revenue spurs webmasters to consider options. It happens to the good sites as much as it does to the spammy end of the market.
Those making the high end (as an eg. we were doing $15 CPM at peak) are so good, have quality content, traffic, ect that we also have many ways to make money. So, we at the higher end leave too. And yes, WE are valuable to google and advertisers, which is why we have options.
AdSense revenues have grown steadily from one year to the next, which suggests that relatively few AdSense publishers are heading for the exits.
Sorry, I thought we were talking about NOW, and since rev DID drop by 3%, what exactly are you talking about? To be honest, I don' get the sense in your post at all. I contains a seriously logical fallacy.
If any AdSense publishers are headed for the exits, they aren't exactly trampling each other in a stampede.
Google’s aggregate number of paid clicks, which include clicks related to ads served on Google sites and the sites of partners in its AdSense program, increased approximately 17% over the first quarter of 2008 and about 3% over the fourth quarter of 2008, the company said.
FarmBoy
Fact is, the publishers who are most likely to leave are those who are worth least to Google.
And why would that be?
maybe the answer is here. It is:
..the kind of speculation that passes for fact
;-)
[edited by: Scurramunga at 5:59 am (utc) on April 18, 2009]
AdSense revenues have grown steadily from one year to the next, which suggests that relatively few AdSense publishers are heading for the exits.
limited advertisers
The limit is in the volume of traffic Google can provide.
Revenue can grow despite many publishers leaving.
If that's the case, then Google and the publishers who haven't left may be doing even better than the revenue figures would suggest! :-)
If that's the case, then Google and the publishers who haven't left may be doing even better than the revenue figures would suggest!
That Google took more or less money is not an indication of whether publishers as a group are doing better or worse.
Addendum: From a publisher's point of view, Google's total AdSense revenues, payout, and publisher population are far less important than individual earnings are. To paraphrase something that Martinibuster once said, it's more productive to focus on things that you can control (such as your content, audience, AdSense implementation, etc.) than on things that you can't (such as total Google revenues, payouts, and publisher turnover).
