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- CTR over the past two weeks have significantly dropped from their long-term moving averages. My visitors are not clicking as they used to over the past 3+ years. I saw such low CTR rates only after being new to the program, for about six weeks, and then never again. I remember that targeting at that time was an issue. So it could also be weak economy PLUS bad targeting (but I am seeing mostly related ads on my sites).
I'd say, it's the economy.
Last Saturday was the worst day of the year
Saturday and Sunday were pretty dire for me at about 50% of the daily average. Strangely my logs tell me my traffic was well below average however Google Page Impressions were normal!
Monday was my second best day this month and, my normally best day of the week, Tuesday, crashed in spectacular style...again, the third consecutive well-below average Tuesday.
My overall daily clicks are, like many others, substantially down however my EPC is definitely up at present therefore earnings have not yet nose-dived, having said that they are 50% of two years ago!
Breathe in and tighten belt comes to mind! Or stop drinking so much beer:-)
Granted, the article is about display ads (which obviously represent a minority of AdSense ads), but the numbers do suggest that many advertisers are cutting budgets and spending their dollars more selectively.
(Side note: In the sample of 5,000 or so Web sites, small publishers typically earned higher display-ad CPMs than large publishers by a 3-to-1 ratio--probably because their audiences are more targeted. In my opinion, there's a lesson in those numbers for AdSense publishers: Audience does matter, and as Google continues to refine the AdSense network, being able to reach the right audiences--not just optimizing for keywords--will be what separates the haves from the have-nots.)
...being able to reach the right audiences--
Indeed. Three days ago I split off a segment from a popular page which could have been split again into smaller segments but I thought it would have too small an appeal. Immediately, in fact just later that same day, this new page began getting extraordinary numbers from Google so I split it again. Both pages are now doing almost as well as the original page which still does OK. Narrow, narrow, narrow...
But is "audience" the right term for a mute page?
How can a bad economy NOT have an effect?
Ah. There might be even winners.
Imagine you have been selling cheap (and cheap looking) cars in Silicon Valley. Every day you see the luxury-car-driving-crowd from various startup and think - "Geez. I wish these were my customers." - Then comes the financial crisis, and you see your chance. You fire up a nice ad on Google, offering cheap cars in The Valley, and next day your showroom is full of people. :-)
Is that car dealer happy about the crisis? Sure. Do the websites displaying his ads see a downturn? Nope. They see nothing or even increases. So, some businesses might not see a change.
As a whole, I agree though. There's no way this could possibly bypass the web publishing world.
I think you answered your own question. Publishers who aren't in the investment/banking/realty sectors may not see losses. My stats are still about the same as usual. Sites that don't target lower income consumers (who have to cut spending due to the 'recession') could continue unscathed.
Also, the infusion of capital by the U.S. government and other governments may soon have a positive effect on consumer confidence. It could be a while, though, for inter-bank lending to pick up.
"Recession is when your neighbor loses his job. Depression is when you lose yours."--Ronald Reagan
I try to stick to niches that are mostly economy-proof.
Very smart in a downturn. But if you don't grab a hot niche when times are good you'll miss all the goodies. I'm in a cyclical sector but haven't suffered at all yet.
After the toxic hedge funds unwind we will see a very hot boom in some sectors (not housing related), find 'em nutmeg and you'll do much better.
a very hot boom in some sectors (not housing related)
Not lower end housing sector, the middle and upper end and those with good equity within their properties should remain fairly stable since many of those home owners are not being affected by this debacle.
Responsible homeowners "should" have known for quite a long time that this "house party boom" would end in tears.
Those old enough to remember the extended economic downturn in the U.S. during the 1970s will tell you that, once they get started, recessions continue for a long time. Many economists think this one will last five to ten years.
However, online advertising is more targeted, more efficient and more affordable than the established monopolist media and not nearly as likely to suffer greatly, IMHO. When this all ends, we'll be talking about how there used to be newspapers, magazines and even radio stations. How quaint.
Those old enough to remember the extended economic downturn in the U.S. during the 1970s will tell you that, once they get started, recessions continue for a long time.
One thing is certain, inflation will be the next tsunami and it will make your head spin this time.
Many economists think this one will last five to ten years.
Ya right, how many of them were blindsided by this crisis? Most of them. Economists who have really valuable information don't give it away.
I think they've all popped...what else is left?..oh..gold.
But that's only the most obvious next bubble, the people who profited from the last two bubbles are already cooking up their next scheme--count on it.
an edit: I should add that there's a remote possibility that the opposite will happen, world-wide depression and deflation but my guess is that the tinkerers-in-charge will find inflation more palatable.
[edited by: OnlyToday at 3:45 pm (utc) on Oct. 17, 2008]
Indeed, there was no China, no India, no Russia in the '70's.
And I suppose not one of them had that indespensable piece of equipment...the telex!
I don't suppose telephones worked then either, nor were there televisions or newspapers?
Yes, things will move faster--don't underestimate this generation.
Oh...is it this generation that lives for today and not for tomorrow? The many of this generation who have actually caused all these problems with their speculations?
Do not be surprised with the amount of new regulations these modern day snake oil sales people will be burdened, perhaps if they actually worked for a living instead of playing in a worldwide betting game all the time then society may possibly be far better off.