Forum Moderators: martinibuster
What if the payout has never changed?
How does that affect all the wild theorizing?
it would seem that if people could remove this possibility from their theory they might have a better chance of figuring things out.
Everyone loves to use "Google took more of the pot" ...
Not "everyone".
What I DO think is that smart pricing has undergone numerous changes and tweaks since it rolled out and that each time one of these tweaks is made, new publishers get caught up in the mire. That's what I think.
But I think Bigfoot is actually Elvis in hiding, so what do I know?
Everyone loves to use "Google took more of the pot" as a fall back for theory.
What if the payout has never changed?
How does that affect all the wild theorizing?
First, it isn't "theorizing." A theory has been tested scientifically; an unsupported claim that "Google took more of the pot" is conjecture that barely deserves the term "hypothesis."
Second, even if Google were taking "more of the pot" in some instances, that wouldn't change the fact that individual declines or increases in EPC, eCPM, and earnings could be caused by multiple factors such as:
1) Supply and demand on the advertiser and/or publisher side
2) Smart pricing
3) The site-exclusion filter
4) Changes in currency-exchange rates
5) An unnannounced "quality scoring" mechanism (see next point)
6) A compensation formula that rewards some types of sites, content, AdSense usage patterns, etc. more or less than others
7) Various combinations of any or all of the above.
First, it isn't "theorizing." A theory has been tested scientifically;
The word "theory" has a popular use, outside of the scientific term, that means "a possible explanation". We have to accept it or it just gets frustrating. Now, I understand your point if we were, say, talking about the theory of evolution, which is a real scientific theory, compared to creationism, as they do not equate as just being both "theories", but we're talking about adsense here. Black box bonanza.
one dictionary definition of theory is
a proposed explanation whose status is still conjectural, in contrast to well-established propositions that are regarded as reporting matters of actual fact.
2 others are
contemplation or speculation.
guess or conjecture.
be that as it may,
>> black box bonanza
I like that term
>> Not "everyone"
true enough, it just is an oft adopted position and really shouldn't be worried about because there just isn't any data to support it.
Now, I understand your point if we were, say, talking about the theory of evolution, which is a real scientific theory, compared to creationism, as they do not equate as just being both "theories", but we're talking about adsense here.
Yes, we are talking about AdSense here--and if we assume that pure conjecture or mindless venting has the same validity as reasoned thought, we end up with threads that cause confusion and misconceptions.
In any case, I have no desire to turn this thread into an argument about whose dictionary is right or wrong; the meat of my message was in the second part:
...even if Google were taking "more of the pot" in some instances, that wouldn't change the fact that individual declines or increases in EPC, eCPM, and earnings could be caused by multiple factors such as:1) Supply and demand on the advertiser and/or publisher side
2) Smart pricing
3) The site-exclusion filter
4) Changes in currency-exchange rates
5) An unnannounced "quality scoring" mechanism (see next point)
6) A compensation formula that rewards some types of sites, content, AdSense usage patterns, etc. more or less than others
7) Various combinations of any or all of the above.
As to where this cut is diverted (the conspiracy theory), I agree that it is pointless to speculate, but this is exactly what you get with a black box.
There is data to support the earnings cut, deliberate or not does not matter much
Hobbs, some (repeat: some) publishers are reporting an "earnings cut." Whether it's "deliberate or not" does matter, because if the affected publishers think it's deliberate, they might benefit from considering the reasons why they might have been targeted while others haven't been. Falling back on the myth that "Google has cut the payout for everyone" may be comforting, but it won't help to buy groceries or pay the rent.
My guess is that smart pricing and sector- or keyword-specific supply and demand are responsible for a lot of the plunging AdSense revenue that some publishers are reporting, but if I genuinely believed that Google had selected me for a lower payout, I'd be asking myself "What things might I be able to do at my end to recover?"
quality score (or whatever you want to call it in this instance)
conversions
smartpricing
are the things I would say primarily lessen click value, either all together or in combination
it would be nice to see people address site quality issues, or the quality of attracted visitors instead of just worrying that they were getting ripped off by G.
