Forum Moderators: martinibuster
Anyone else notice this lately?
I don't think maintenance = changes like you describe. Instead, people in similar situations often post saying me too and false conclusions are made by that.
It is meaningless to postulate anything from such a short time
I agree, if something that never has (statistically) happened before happens, the best option is to wait 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years to get the statistics absolutely right, I know, I know - it really cannot hurt your business ;-D
Even if our civilization is destroyed, just wait, and one day aliens (green or gray, I really do not know) will create a new one on this planet, and eventually they will have content-ads online, and your stats will return to normal (I'm quite confident that they will automatically include quality publishers from archeological digs to their existing ad-platform) - see, you really don't need to fix anything, or to worry, or to adapt to changes %-D
But I still think that if your hour to hour, day to day, week to week, month to month, year to year stats suddenly change the way they have never done in the recent years, it's a good thing to increase your awareness level, so, if needed, you can react quickly.
Of course, if you have 7 clicks per day, and clicks collapse to 6 per day, that just isn't enough for a proper statistical analysis.
But with enough zeroes in your numbers, I would say that even a post maintenance day can be compared to other post maintenance days, and if there is a major change, I will worry - after all, that's what being an adsense publisher is all about ;-)
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that's what being an adsense publisher is all about
No, down here an AdSense publisher can be one of many creatures:
- The 'bucket of money' gold digger
- The I'fe bean band hlp me pleeze
- The I've been banned and so will you
- The missing one click anal retentive
- The million clicks a day show off
- The Google is Devil (yuck)
- The Google is God (double yuck)
- And my favorite, the I hate my life and will shove my fist down your throat and kidnap your children if you dare ask another stupid question you low life scum.
.. Finally there's the rest of you all nice reasonable folks that couldn't find your type listed above ;-)
The past few days I've been getting the same page views but significantly less clicks
Well I'm as confused as hell as to what's happening! Saturday I saw a pre-Glitch CTR, eCPM and earnings' day, Sunday not far off and then a complete collapse this morning!...Now watch it recover!
Oh for the good old days when weekends meant 65-75% of weekday earnings, at least I knew where I was then, I just do not understand why my logs show completely normal traffic yet AdSense weekend earningss are considerably up.
Finally there's the rest of you all nice reasonable folks that couldn't find your type listed above ;-)
I'm not too sure which one I fit however I do know the category that some would like to allocate me!
I'll get it in before anyone else does:-)
[edited by: Hobbs at 3:11 pm (utc) on Jan. 14, 2008]
Well I'm as confused as hell as to what's happening! Saturday I saw a pre-Glitch CTR, eCPM and earnings' day, Sunday not far off and then a complete collapse this morning!
So we've diverged. Saturday was our first miserable day since December 26th, went right back to post October crash levels. Sunday was fine.
But it gives me an idea on how we could remove the risk from our business. I propose a financial instument, which I've name Click Drop Obligations, or CDO's.
My theory is that some clever boots on Wall Street can aggregate the incomes of many Google publishers into a CDO, and gaurantee us an income that will remain on trend. The CDO originator can then sell different tranches to pension funds, private investors and banks, where the return investors will get on the CDO will be based on how risky a tranche they purchase.
The smartest investors will purchase the riskiest tranches, those returning over 20%, and then hedge their bets by also puurchasing CDSs (Click Defualt Swaps) for the same or similar CDOs, which will be underpriced by an insurance industry that doesn't really understand the online world. The result is that a few savvy investors will get wealthy, a bunch of Google publishers will have a steady income stream, and a lot of banks, pension funds and private investors around the world will get screwed.
And it's all legal. So come on, somebody start originating Click Drop Obligations, I'll put up out Google income to help back the note. In fact, I'll pledge our income as many times as required:-) After all, no reason to limit this booming new industry to the actual amount of Google Adsense income in existence, it's the thought that counts.
which I've name Click Drop Obligations, or CDO's.
Was this pure immaginaton or a hint?
CDO = Collateralised Debt Obligation
CDO = Collateralised Debt Obligation
I couldn't even spell that first word, much less read about it in the Journal every morning:-)
But I wasn't entirely funning. After all, we do have legitimate businesses with legitimate incomes. Risky as they might appear, compare online publishing to insuring sixteenth or seventeenth century merchant shipping, whaling, etc, and it looks downright safe. The trick for the CDO originator is to get enough publishers signed up to spread the risk sufficiently so the "I got banned from Adsense" losses don't seriously affect the value. I suspect the larger risk is the "Our eCPM is falling steadily", but a good actuary can price for all that.
Or maybe we should take the farming approach, and just create an Adsense futures market, where we could lock in our current value by selling our future revenue for a given month. Of course, it's not really the revenue we'd be selling in a futures deal, but page views at a given historical eCPM, which would be tough for small publishers to document well. But online advertising is a multi-billion dollar industry, so something should be possible. I'll bet Lloyds of London would sell eCPM insurance for the right premium.
Or maybe we should take the farming approach
Ohhhh...just think about all those EU farming subsidies!
The paperwork, the corruption, the PROFIT:-)))
