Forum Moderators: martinibuster
Most have speculated that recent drops in AdSense income were associated with the latest Google updates to AdSense last weekend, which coincidentally was timed with the fires in Southern California. When you consider that an estimated 500K people have been evacuated from their homes it's reasonable to assume that this mass exodus will have a noticeable impact on the online economy.
This isn't the first time that natural disasters have been responsible for a decline in AdSense earnings. Previous dips in AdSense were felt by many with the impact of Katrina, major power outages due to winter storms in the Midwest and East Coast, and massive flooding in various places around the country. These events tend to be felt strongest when they hit areas that tend to be more wired such as a major city or high tech area like Southern California.
My guess is that the World Series will have a bigger impact on internet surfing than the fires.
My guess is that the World Series will have a bigger impact on internet surfing than the fires.
Depends on your niche and how you market your site.
I depend on a lot of local traffic, meaning people looking for things in their own local area, and I took a pretty decent hit this week from that area.
Historical metrics show me that even when there's a major event happening somewhere, such as the Olympics or soccer World Cup, even during Katrina, my visitor levels were all within the usual range.
It always surprises me when massive international widget trade shows are occurring that my earnings do not vary much.
YMMV!
[edited by: HuskyPup at 6:10 pm (utc) on Oct. 25, 2007]
Besides the people actually displaced, there are probably power outages, and people are dealing with cleanup in those areas.
But I think the impact on Southern California-based traffic as a whole should be minimal.
But major sports, they do affect major parts of the world.Has anyone any experience of setting up websites aimed at these one off events? Olympics, world series, garnd prix, world cup? Is it a wothwhile market to aim for?
Not exactly a natural disaster unless you look at the teams playing this year.
Ahhh! Boston certainly deserves to be there and Colorado one 21 out of 22 games. I'd say they deserve the trip too! :)
The World Cup is a huge event everywhere but America.
Not as huge as everywhere else, but probably watched (and attended) a lot more than most people outside of the U.S. think.
I agree with incrediBill's observation. I've made the same observation in the past when significant events take place around the world.
I think the number (500,000) has gone up a little and even though that's not a huge number (compared to the population in all of California), you have to look at the 500K that was displaced. Were they middle-class internet users? Or, were they low-income families? The former will have a much bigger impact on web traffic.
Plus, you have to consider the fact that many people have relatives in the area (this keeps them from their normal, daily routines of surfing the web); millions are following the fires and the story (which keeps them away from their normal routines).
So it's not just "500K", it can relate to many more.
The Uk has a popoulation approaching 30 million.
Perhaps you'd enlighten our Government, as they seem to think it's somewhere around 60 million - something to do with the last census in 2001 - and set to increase to 70M within the next decade. ;)
Can't say I've noticed any downturn in traffic despite the half-term holiday here; seems to be holding pretty steady. But I did notice a slowdown back in the 'summer' when we had all that flooding, so I guess localised crises can affect Adsense.
It's only relevant if you are dependant on that particular area for your earnings.
OK, that's just silly because traffic comes from all over so when an estimated 500K-1M people are in flux they aren't a part of the internet economy and it has to make an impact.
Sites that provide local services like I do might notice it more readily simply because we already track local response rates but that doesn't make the site dependent on one area, it just means that now there is a gap in the bottom line.
In your first post I thought you were getting at the idea of some large advertisers having their businesses disrupted due to the fires. Since California is a huge center for e-commerce, that actually seems more likely to me, although the impact of that would be on eCPM rather than overall traffic.
It's actually only a small portion of the area (and population) here, LA is enormously spread out.
provide local services like I do
Bill, you mentioned a 50% drop in San Diego traffic - that couldn't possibly be directly related to those displaced residents not using the internet. Half of San Diego wasn't evacuated.
But here's a thought that could help explain your stats. There are probably power outages that might have affected routers that are local to San Diego. That traffic might have been rerouted through other cities. So it's possible that some of your 50% is simply showing up somewhere else.
Side note: As I understand, lower income groups use the internet as much as higher income groups. The only real difference is when it comes to age. Younger people use the internet more than older people.
Additional footnote: the World Series is also taking massive amounts of people away from their computers at the moment. Not exactly a natural disaster unless you look at the teams playing this year.
My AdSense income is mainl based on my German sites.
Last year in June was the soccer world champion ship in Germany.
About 25% income loss
Bill, you mentioned a 50% drop in San Diego traffic - that couldn't possibly be directly related to those displaced residents not using the internet. Half of San Diego wasn't evacuated.
It could be attributed to those in San Diego glued to the news instead of the internet or helping friends and family that were evacuees.
The World Series is also taking massive amounts of people away from their computers at the moment.
I make most of my Adsense money from people goofing off at work.
p/g
p/g
I make most of my Adsense money from people goofing off at work.
Good point. My revenue is typically higher during the weekdays than it is on a weekend. In fact, I'm at work right now :)
One was for fire extinguishers. Not sure it's going to help at this time.
I'm sure (fire) insurance ads are getting a lot of traffic as well. However, I suspect the "Find fire at eBay" ads aren't doing so hot. (pun intended) :)
[edited by: LifeinAsia at 6:21 pm (utc) on Oct. 26, 2007]
In fact, Katrina more or less put our site on the map.
I really feel kind of bad about it, knowing that the misfortune of thousands of people is directly helping my AdSense earnings. I try to donate some of the extra to relief-related funds, though the extra I earn from AdSense in times like this is rather minimal.
