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A black and dirty hand that controls your EPC

     
3:00 pm on Mar 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

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When we first knew the so called smart pricing, I told you that there was no such thing in the whole world as smart pricing, instead there was a black hand doing that. It controls such things as OK this site's daily earning should not exceed $500, EPC should be at $0.4. That's fixed. After some time, it becomes greedier, and gives a new cap to your site, this time it decides to cut your profit by exactly 50% with a $0.2 EPC. The hand is so obvious that there is even no daily variations.
3:11 pm on Mar 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Sometimes my CTRs and eCPMs so precisely match with each other that brings suspicions.
3:20 pm on Mar 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I'm not a big fan of conspiracy theories, but I have to agree with you on this.

My epc in general is quite stable +- 10%. Once in a while (especially when I have a traffic spike) it wacks down by about 40-50% and stays stable again (+-10%) around the new lower epc.

3:33 pm on Mar 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

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You guys are in the minority ..see this.

[webmasterworld.com...]

BTW, I accept the cap hypothesis. I have seen caps being raised slowly and surely.

3:58 pm on Mar 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Sometimes my CTRs and eCPMs so precisely match with each other that brings suspicions.

Lets say without it you could earn $500 one day, $300 another day, and $600 next day.

What Google could try to do is make daily earnings more stable so you could feel more confident in what you would earn next day. So instead of $500, $300, $600 you would get $500 + $300 + $600 / 3 days = about $466 each day.

What do you think?

4:25 pm on Mar 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

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If this is really true, sooner or later a former employee will squeal. Not every employee who sees this and knows the don't be evil maxim will be able to keep quiet.

p/g

4:39 pm on Mar 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

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When we first knew the so called smart pricing, I told you that there was no such thing in the whole world as smart pricing, instead there was a black hand doing that.

Are you suggesting that Google is run by Sicilian extortionists or by Serbian terrorists?

[en.wikipedia.org...]

[en.wikipedia.org...]

5:10 pm on Mar 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

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What some refer to as a "cap" could be more like smoothing out the earnings. You have to get higher earnings consistently over a certain period for the smoothing algo's "average" to go up. This makes it look like your cap has been increased to a new level.

So if your true earnings are... $100, $200, $175, $125... Google tries to smooth out those numbers so they're all close to the average of $150. You think you're capped. Maybe you even had a big traffic day, yet still did not earn much more than $150.

But maybe at some point you earn higher amounts consistently enough that your average rises, and the smoothing algo reflects that change. Seems to you like your cap has been increased.

This is all just rampant speculation and should be treated as such. There are times when I've thought it plausible and times when I haven't.

5:25 pm on Mar 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

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My epc in general is quite stable +- 10%. Once in a while (especially when I have a traffic spike) it wacks down by about 40-50% and stays stable again (+-10%) around the new lower epc.

If you have a "traffic spike" you are presumably taking about a short term significant increase in your traffic. This respresents different traffic from your "baseline" position, so it should be no surprise if it behaves differntly to your normal traffic - typically these spikes will be associated with much lower CTRs - the additional traffic is attracted to your site for some reason, and it it not usually to click on an ad.

Similarly, a significant increase in traffic may require digging deeper into the available ads for your theme - typically this can mean more lower ranking and therefore generally lower paying Ads are being shown - hence reduced EPC.

You don't need a conspiracy theory to explain this behaviour.

1:10 pm on Mar 19, 2007 (gmt 0)

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"If you have a "traffic spike" you are presumably taking about a short term significant increase in your traffic. This respresents different traffic from your "baseline" position, so it should be no surprise if it behaves differntly to your normal traffic - typically these spikes will be associated with much lower CTRs - the additional traffic is attracted to your site for some reason, and it it not usually to click on an ad.

Similarly, a significant increase in traffic may require digging deeper into the available ads for your theme - typically this can mean more lower ranking and therefore generally lower paying Ads are being shown - hence reduced EPC.

You don't need a conspiracy theory to explain this behaviour."

I would agree Pengi if I would see my epc high during the morning and then gradually fall. However after my epc drops it stays low in the morning as well.

5:28 pm on Mar 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

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It seems to have happened to me also. Had a traffic increase and made a good grip that day. The next day..boom! ECPM cut down to a 1/4 of what it was the day before and I have seen it happen before. Although my traffic has doubled my earnings stay the same overall. That is why I try to diversify my income.