Forum Moderators: martinibuster
As people become more internet-savvy and begin to understand that 'ads by gooooogle' indicates paid advertising, I believe we as publishers will see less and less CTR, and hence less money - as well as Google.
Furthermore, there are already plugins for Firefox (and Opera?) that BLOCK 'Ads by Google', and other forms of advertising by readint the javascript in the code.
I believe that these "AdBlockers" are still in their infancy, and that their popularity will continue to grow until they are as standard as "Popup Blockers" are today.
Given these two major points (1.) internet savvyness and 2.) ad-blocking software) where do you see the AdSense and other contextual advertising programs going in the future?
My opinion is that AdSense will have to evolve to either a PHP or ASP script, and will some how have to be MUCH more discreet about being a 'google ad'.
Personally, I'm not excited about the thought of an internet filled with text-ads in which you have no indication that they are ads, however something like this may need to happen in order for google's main source of revenue to continue.
It's the same reason many people read newspapers: to keep track of sales, specials, etc., not to read the news.
Advertising is a firmly-ingrained part of our culture. In fact, I'd be willing to bet that given a choice between advertising and editorial content, a surprising percentage of consumers would choose the ads.
If you think people who know what ads by google means won't click on the ads you're wrong. A few minutes ago I was looking for a product. I opened up google, typed and entered my search, saw a sponsored link that looked relevant to what I'm looking for, clicked it, found exactly what I was looking for, and purchased the product.
You can't really compare the two mediums, anyway. Newspaper ads give you the information they are going to give you without having to 'click through' to get more. You glance at it, and move on.
And to expand on what jhood said, readers view advertising as a useful companion to editorial content if the ads are relevant and are about things that interest them. That means direct-response advertising (such as AdSense) is likely to work best on niche sites, which are the online equivalent of trade, enthusiast, and other special-interest publications.
Example: Joe User is thinking of a luxury kayak cruise in Elbonia, so he reads a review of Klassique Kayak Cruises at kayak-cruising.com or elboniatravel.com. Assuming that the review floats his boat, there's a good chance that he'll click on at least one of the AdSense ads for travel agents who handle bookings for Klassique Kayak Cruises. Why? Because Joe needs a travel agent (since, like most cruise lines, Klassique doesn't book direct), and he's delighted to have four or five travel agents' ads plastered across the top of the page.
Most of us can cite examples of advertising that we're happy to see. If we're we're camera enthusiasts, we scan the ads in POPULAR PHOTOGRAPHY or note the dealer price links on camera-review sites; if we're fashion followers, we look at the ads in VOGUE or GQ. And if we're yachtsmen who want to float our own boats, we devote our full attention to the ads in BOATING or SAILING.
However, where this falls down is when the ads are not targeted correctly, or the ads themselves lead to a page of ads, that in turn leads to yet another page of ads.
Whilst visitors find the ads useful, they aren't going to want to block them. If they find that they aren't useful, they are going to either invest in ad blockers, or most likely simply ignore them and not see them (ad blindness), or make a decision not to click Google ads as they know they are spam.
The challenge Google have is to make sure that the ads remain targeted and of value to potential customers. The current situation is that people are wising up to the fact that most Google ads are going to lead to more ads leading to more ads. People are getting less inclined to click on genuine ads for that reason, and that's something Google should be concerned about and make the effort to see beyond the next balance sheet and take the necessary steps to ensure Adsense's survival long term.
You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink. The technology exists now, and has done for some years to get round ad blockers using server side such as .asp or .php to deliver text links, but if people simply don't click on them because they know in most cases all they will see is another page of ads, that lead to yet more ads, delivering the ads in that way aren't going to help the situation. The real issue isn't the technology to deliver ads past the blockers (though I'd like to see this happen personally), but to remove the layer of useless middlemen from the system that stands between advertisers selling products and services and their customers.
The challenge Google have is to make sure that the ads remain targeted and of value to potential customers. The current situation is that people are wising up to the fact that most Google ads are going to lead to more ads leading to more ads.
Or to generic affiliate sites that have the same boilerplate copy and the same links that the user saw the last time he clicked on a "Hotels in Widgetville" or "Discounts on Windows software" ad.
I do think the percentage of ads-leading-to-other-ads varies by topic, though. On my own site, for example, I'd guess that most ads for a topic like barge cruising or bike tours lead to real businesses that provide an added-value service for the user (travel agencies, tour operators, etc.), while ads for hotel bookings are more likely to simply pass the user up the e-commerce chain.
But let's go back to what you were talking about, "ad leading to more ads":
Right now, the AdSense-arbitrage crowd are profiting from their ability to buy low (by picking cheap keywords) and sell high (by getting users to click on mor expensive ads). It's possible that, over time, increased demand and sophistication among advertisers with real businesses will reduce the supply of cheap keyphrases and narrow the spread between "low" and "high."
Then again, maybe not.
As people become more internet-savvy and begin to understand that 'ads by gooooogle' indicates paid advertising, I believe we as publishers will see less and less CTR, and hence less money - as well as Google.
Hmmmm. Suppose I'm in the widgets business.
I create an ad that reads, "I sell widgets. This is an advertisement for widgets. Click here to see my widgets"
Are you assuming that a significant number of people who are looking to buy a widget will see my ad and decide NOT to click because it is an advertisement, thus depriving themselves of an opportunity to shop for widgets?
FarmBoy
Of course, if the browsers come with adblocking software enabled by default, then that's a different story... interesting to think about.
Deb
My opinion is that AdSense will have to evolve to either a PHP or ASP script
That's an awsome idea. I wish they would do that. With PHP you can "include" a script from a URL rather than just a file on your server, and this script could have a simple function call to display the ad. It'll be woven into your page rather than populated with easily-disableable javascript.
Of course it might introduce new fraud exploits, but Google are smart people, they should find a way to do it.
However, I do believe when people start creating sites of their own and become aware of adsense then they click less on ads.
But a person who has little to interest in web development will not stop clicking on interested ads simply to deny the webmaster a few cents.
Also, let's face it: Many AdSense publishers try to disguise their ads as content (e.g., as navigation links or directory listings), and users who have found themselves being shunted off to third-party commerce sites may be soured on AdSense ads--or at least on thinly-disguised AdSense ads.
I don't think DrShields was suggesting that people won't click on ads because publishers are getting paid; the implication was that people won't click on ads because the ads aren't perceived as being "real content."
This is precisely what I am saying.
Many people have made the point that they have clicked on advertisements in order to find the product they wanted - I think we all have. However I think there is some truth the philosphy that there are waaay too many advertisers that are just not worth our visitors time. And the more they get used to this, the less they will click anything that looks like 'Ads by Goooogle'.
I'm not knocking AdSense by any means - I love it, and less than a week ago I just had my first $20.00 day, which was exciting for me - but I guess I am worried that this opportunity will eventually level off as more and more worthless advertisers purchase links.
Are you assuming that a significant number of people who are looking to buy a widget will see my ad and decide NOT to click because it is an advertisement, thus depriving themselves of an opportunity to shop for widgets?
It's quite possible. Ad burnout has occurred in all other ad-supported media.
Ad blockers have been around for quite a while, but few people use them.
Some ISP's now offer all kinds of adblockers, spyware blockers etc.
Newbees don't need to do much else except pay their 9.95 a month.
Just am wondering if ad blockers is what's bring my clicks way down?
I, personally like well behaved ads for the information I get from them and won't use the software.
Even my Sat hookup offers it....
