Forum Moderators: martinibuster
I am thinking to quit my job now and concentrate full time on adsense. But will it last for long? let's say 5 or 10 years?
what do you guys think?
But the end of an "easy money" boom won't mean the end of AdSense, or the end of opportunities for publishers and other businesses that deliver real value to the end user. Advertisers need audiences, and in the case of direct-response advertising (such as AdSense), what they really need are targeted audiences--preferably targeted audiences of real prospects, not just people who clicked on an ad because they couldn't find anything of interest on a made-for-AdSense site.
I agree. I don't expect a total crash at all, but if you look at the last bust, it wasn't total either, but it was the case that companies paying $20 CPM are now paying 50 cent CPM.
There will always be business opportunites -- even during the depressions of history, there were always people who grew rich.
Whether the majority of adsense participants will be able to take advantage of those opportunities if they have to is questionable. My guess is a very small percentage will be so able. That's particularly the case if the quality bar in terms of the skills abilities gets raised. What value, for example do the hundreds of thousands of "filler" web site articles and content have in any other place on the planet? What value are the thousands of e-books and self-published books marketed over the Internet have to the author if they aren't succeeding at selling them on the Internet?
When you have a system that provides easy money to people with narrow skill sets and experience there's a tendency for people to grow lazy in terms of learning. Heck, for many in adsense, it would be hard NOT to make at least some money. You'd have to try pretty hard not to.
What happens if it now longer is "so easy".
I agree. I don't expect a total crash at all, but if you look at the last bust, it wasn't total either, but it was the case that companies paying $20 CPM are now paying 50 cent CPM.
Maybe for run-of-network banners. Display ads on targeted sites can cost a lot more than that. (More than AdSense rates, in some cases.)
Whether the majority of adsense participants will be able to take advantage of those opportunities if they have to is questionable. My guess is a very small percentage will be so able. That's particularly the case if the quality bar in terms of the skills abilities gets raised.
I wouldn't disagree with that.
What value, for example do the hundreds of thousands of "filler" web site articles and content have in any other place on the planet?
None.
When you have a system that provides easy money to people with narrow skill sets and experience there's a tendency for people to grow lazy in terms of learning. Heck, for many in adsense, it would be hard NOT to make at least some money. You'd have to try pretty hard not to. What happens if it now longer is "so easy".
Easy come, easy go.
Maybe for run-of-network banners. Display ads on targeted sites can cost a lot more than that. (More than AdSense rates, in some cases.
Yes, I guess that's accurate, but the issue is how to tap into that. Since the late 90's I've been part of Burstmedia. It distinguished itself from most of its ad serving competitors by having those kinds of targeted ads (or at least in theory).
Has it worked? Well, it's still in business, but it has NEVER been all that successful in obtaining and serving those high value targeted ads to supply to its publishers IN QUANTITY.
It's exceedingly labor intensive for most sites (or ad networks) to go that route.
Since we're talking about adsense here, I wonder how many site owners are benefiting financially from site targeted ads (we tried as an advertiser before giving up). I suspect that for NOW, for most publishers, it doesn't work.
For instance Xmas 2005 saw one of my friends complete all their shopping on-line during November. All bargains secured, all presents wrapped, all seemingly completed.
Actually, I do almost all of my holiday shopping online, but I very rarely click on ads. It's not a desire to spend less on gas so much as a desire to avoid crowds and long lines.
I was very impressed by their organised lifestyle...that was until December 27th through til early January when they duly drove to nearly every major shopping centre throughout the UK for the Xmas and New Year sales!
I sometimes hunt around for in-store after-holiday bargains. However, I rarely drive to places I wouldn't normally go. Again, it's not a desire to spend less gas as much as a desire not to spend too much time driving.
I would be very surprised if the price of gas had a marked influence on online shopping. The general trend (at least in the US) is for people to continue to use their cars during gas price hikes as long as gas is available. There have been some increases in use of public transportation during gas price hikes, but PT uses gas too ...
If online advertising has a future, it will be because it provides a generally valuable service/convenience, not a means to spend less on gas.
It will work this way for me with six or ten dollar gasoline too, but I don't have a tight budget. Some people who have trouble making ends meet at the end of the month will discover online shopping... So a slowdown in the economy could be good for e-biz in a perverse way.
Hmmm ... I wonder if people having trouble making ends meet will be useful to (new) advertisers. I could make the argument that these people are already being served by the WalMarts of the world, who have already established strong online presences. Furthermore, even though they're driving less, their goods will still have to be shipped to them. Thus they will be affected by the price of oil anyway.
To use a simplistic example, if mortgage interest rates shoot up to 15%, publishers who run home-mortgage sites will probably see a decline in their AdSense income, but publishers with sites about buying repossessed houses may see their AdSense income skyrocket. And if Los Angeles gets hit by an earthquake, Los Angeles travel sites may feel the pinch, but sites about making homes earthquake-resistant are likely to do quite well.
True, but this doesn't necessarily mean that the earthquake-resistant publishers will make all the money lost by the travel site publishers.
Yes, I guess that's accurate, but the issue is how to tap into that. Since the late 90's I've been part of Burstmedia. It distinguished itself from most of its ad serving competitors by having those kinds of targeted ads (or at least in theory).
I never had much luck with Burst, FastClick, or Tribal Fusion, but I've done very well with the Travel Ad Network (a rep firm that works with medium to large travel sites). IMHO, a rep firm that focuses on one industry and has a staff with great contacts in that industry is going to bring in more targeted display ads (and higher-paying display ads) than a general ad network.
Since we're talking about adsense here, I wonder how many site owners are benefiting financially from site targeted ads (we tried as an advertiser before giving up). I suspect that for NOW, for most publishers, it doesn't work.
I've seen quite a few site-targeted ads for a major airline on my site lately. I don't know what they're paying, but since they appear on my index.html pages from time to time, I assume they're paying more than if they merely turned up on my photo galleries and other underperforming pages.
True, but this doesn't necessarily mean that the earthquake-resistant publishers will make all the money lost by the travel site publishers.
Of course. But averages are of academic interest; to the individual AdSense publisher, his or her earnings are what count.
It's here to stay. As long as Google is around. Nobody sees Google going bust. The ad rates are pretty stable now, too. It's not 1999. We've gone through the days of wild speculation. The advertisers now know what to expect. There is very little guessing left. Big companies are taking the web seriously; the research data support using the web for advertising. Advertising online is picking up gradually.
p/g
