Forum Moderators: martinibuster
When I get into areas where I am multiplying a made up number times a made up number times a made up number, I normally decide to base my decision on something else. ;)
However, smart pricing may drop that down to anywhere between $0.0 and $3.50
I put AdSense code on an old site two years ago--a samll, fairly focused content site. I've seen click values vary by a factor of more than 100 over that time!
Build a site about something that interests you.
99% of $1
50% of $5
Which would you rather have? Now.... when you decide to fire your broker is when knowing the percentage is useful information. But again, all that really matters when you sell direct is that you get more by dealing directly than you got by using a broker.
Note as well, that the advertiser would only buy direct if it meant they got to spend less (or get added value). So once again, knowing what the advertiser pays the broker doesn't mean that you could get that same amount from the advertiser directly. (At least, not without providing them more than they receive now.)
I'd just like to be able to predict whether I'll at least break even or make a profit. Since this is the first time I'm investing money as opposed to time in a subject it's something I'd like to determine. How do you do that?
I'm not going to use just AdSense to monetize it but because there are hardly any Aff merchants in the field, my only other alternative would be to sell ad space.
Is there any way for you roll the site out in phases, and invest more only when you can see it working? Start with a small but fully functional site, in other words, and expand from there.
There was a recent long, and in the end fairly contentious discussion about this same subject, started by someone who had experience in magazines and was trying to do more or less what you are trying to do. We've lost our search function, but if you browse back through old threads you might be able to find it. The OP took some flak (he was pretty abrasive) but I think also got some good information, in the end
Perhaps someone who has done hundreds of sites has more data to build a formula. Of course, if they are doing hundreds of sites with AS, they probably don't want to share the formula that keeps telling them it's worthwhile to make more sites. ;)
This is how this niche presents itself:
main kw: ~22,000 monthly searches on OV
and 160 clicks estimated by Google (at $100 bid to see the maximum potential). Even if the OV estimates are skewed it's still some fair volume of searches.
main kw competition: ~2m pages, all results are subpages of other sites, no site focused on this particular subject, low PR, not many backlinks.
Average bid in Adwords is $5-6. Average product value between $30-90.
What do you guys think?
as you got no passion for what you are planning and you hand over the essential work to someone else, there is no such thing as trial and error anyhow.
The CPC that is spent on search network is not necessarily the same that is being spent on content network
hairycoo, whoisgregg has it right. As a publisher, you will get your money from the content network. Your "average CPC of $5." is probably derived from bids you have seen in the search network. Think about this:
- the top bids won't necessarily show on your publisher website, possibly lowering the average.
- the charge to the advertiser if a click occurs on your website may be much less than the charge to the advertiser as a result of a search. Then, your share comes after Google's cut (whatever that is... 30-50%?).
Factor in any Google SmartPricing and you may be in for one big disappointment. That's why everyone is urging you to create a website around something you like. It may not pay as much but the disappointment may not be as big.
BTW, how DID you calculate your "average CPC of $5."?
main kw competition: ~2m pages, all results are subpages of other sites, no site focused on this particular subject, low PR, not many backlinks.
Average product value between $30-90.
So I read those two snippets and I think to myself, "Even if Adsense turns out to not be the way, you could position your site to be the leader of this industry."
There's a lot to be said for just doing it and worrying about the monetization later. As long as you don't commit yourself to recurring expenses and this is the best idea you've got right now, I say go for it. :)
I want this site to be useful and educate customers, it will have product news, quizzes, I'll poll my visitors about the product, create a monthly newsletter. The design is nice, simple and clean, it will have all the ingredients of a good website but... I want to monetize it in order to be able to invest back in the site and eventually (about 6-8 months down the road) start reaping the benefits.
I'm just a bit worried whether I'll break even in the first 3-4 months given that this is the first time I've invested more than just my time but also money.
whoisgregg: yes, this could be a leader in this niche (it's a very narrow niche) but advertisers are paying a fair bit so online traffic must be converting for them.
