Smart Pricing

[yosaid]

The only people who are stuck with Adsense are the foriegners, the clueless, and the big dogs who profit from the unfair "smart-pricing" fraud. I am serious.

At this time Google needs publishers. Publishers don't need google. Thanks to YPN, Chitika and the new Adcenter from Microsoft.

Greedy Google is panicking. Check out their Referral program. looooooool.

[dzcap]

My network of sites are a result of teamwork, same as Google's success. I won't waste any more of my time arguing, I should've spent my time on pumping out more sites instead. Quantity and some valuable content = king. This was a lesson well learned!

[david_uk]

Only sites that are being smartpriced are being smartpriced. The sites I run actually sell stuff, so my assumption is that "my" adsense advertisers get very good conversion (simply guessing by what conversion I get for stuff I sell). There are plenty of us, who don't get smart priced

Erm - how do you KNOW you aren't getting whacked by smart pricing? Am I missing some trick that tells us this info?

Also, the impression I get is that you think sites are getting penalised justly. If that was how smart pricing worked, I'd have no problem with it. However, it's penalising me by some 28% for having a promotion to #1 in my niche and getting extra traffic and clicks.

[jonathanleger]

Google has the easiest way to know if a site converts even if there is no tracking in place, GG just relays in the Advertiser's fact that if the 'site' is choosen for CPM it is because its quality and good ROI.

So you're claiming that all sites not chosen for CPM ads are crap sites and so smart pricing lowers their click value? That only sites chosen for CPM have high values because the advertisers must be getting their money out of them? What about advertisers who are only interested in branding and not in clicks at all?

Sounds like hogwash to me.

[jomaxx]

That's a complete misrepresentation of what the poster said or implied. Frankly it's plausible to me that the existence of CPM ads is a data point that AdSense might choose to use when rating sites for quality, but none of us know what criteria Google do or do not use, so this argument is doomed to go around in circles.

[jonathanleger]

I don't think it's a misrepresentation at all. My original post that he responded to said that there was no way for Google to estimate conversions for advertisers who don't use the conversion code. His response was that Google could say that a site gets good conversions if they are targetted for CPM ads. That implies that all sites not targetted for CPM ads must not convert well, which is hogwash.

[DavidDeprice]

Erm - how do you KNOW you aren't getting whacked by smart pricing? Am I missing some trick that tells us this info?

I don't. All I know is that my incomes or CPC did not go down. It's entirely possible that I am being smartpriced just very little. Or maybe not at all. Why should I care, if it does not have any effect moneywise?

Also, the impression I get is that you think sites are getting penalised justly. If that was how smart pricing worked, I'd have no problem with it. However, it's penalising me by some 28% for having a promotion to #1 in my niche and getting extra traffic and clicks.

It's been long discussed and explain that smartpricing is not a PENALTY. I also see no connection between you getting more traffic and the fact that your earnings should rise in the same manner. I actually sell stuff. Sometimes I get spikes in traffic and they don't increase sales. Now that you get more traffic, it's entirely possible that the quality of your traffic dropped down. I can't tell you about organic search result placement, but as far as pay per click, I can actually show you that pros suggest that your ad is not ranked first, but rather 3-4 place for best ROI. There is also an explanation why first place does not offer the best ROI as far as PPC campaigns go. Would you like me to dig up the link?

[dzcap]

Don't bother with him, like someone said, he'd jump off a bridge if Google told him to. LOL! How very true and sad.

[DavidDeprice]

Really? DZCap, looks like you are suffering every time Google makes a move. Seems more likely that you'd start a thread "Google told us to jump from a bridge. It's not fair". I simply ignore Google, in a good sense. I don't depend on Google for traffic. I don't depend on Google for money, I'm not going to go hungry if AdSense kicks me out. I'd say that it's better be in my Google-independent shoes, than in yours "I don't believe google, but I start several sites each week and still make three cents a click, even though I have a great team" shoes.
What really matter, amigo, is how much money you make. And if you don't make much, finding some one or something (namely Google) to blame won't increase your income. Seriously, dude.

[edited by: DavidDeprice at 1:30 pm (utc) on Nov. 14, 2005]

[Max_M]

Smart pricing cannot possibly determine conversions in real time and with great accuracy UNLESS all advertisers put the tracking code on their order pages (which i don't think is the case for probably 40% - 60% of advertisers. They are just to lazy, clueless or unable to place the tracking code on the order pages - affiliates for example. They don't necessarily have access to the merchant order page and unable to place the tracking code, in most cases).

So question asked (assuming google's mantra of "do no evil" still stands) HOW doe's smart pricing determines conversions and click price?

Here are my thoughts:
1. By checking the viewer geo location and system language.... i have no doubt that some countries convert very poorly if at all (network wide). These clicks are probably heavily discounted. Unless the ad is specifically geo targeted to this viewer.

2. By checking the referrer(?) possibly looking into past search strings in the referring url (?). This may give a clue to what this user is after.

3. By looking at site rank and past traffic trends (this info is probably gathered via the google bar (alexa like)

4. Adsense ads relevance to the page in question (did the user click a spot on targeted ad for the page in question OR the user just clicked a site wide targeted ad - this probably in conjunction with page que on the adsense boot list of pages to be indexed and analysed). (?)

5. And then probably Past merchant conversion history for the ad in question is being added to the mix.

These are some of my thought and probably how i would have done it....

Thoughts?

[DavidDeprice]

Smart Pricing DOES estimate total conversion remarkably accurately if only 2% of all advertisers use tracking.
It's called statistics. Check out exit polls for German or Polish elections (not to be confused with predictions). Even when polls are incorrect, they are off by 2-3%.
By definitin about half of advertisers will be below average and a lot of publishers will get smart priced, some more, some less, but there is no evidence that smartpricing is somehow inaccurate or unfair. The biggest argument is "I used to get 50 cents, now I get 5". Sorry, this is not a proof of the system not being unfair, it means that Google advertisers may have overpaid in the past, the same way some companies overpaid for 25 dollar CPM banners in the dotcom era.

[dzcap]

Actaully I am quite happy being dependant on adsense and now ypn. I don't know how much you're making but I think a lot of people would like to be in my 5 figures a month shoes. LOL! BTW, several sites a week is nothing, I am pushing for 10 a week now. Seriously, do you work for Google?

[Max_M]

Smart Pricing DOES estimate total conversion remarkably accurately if only 2% of all advertisers use tracking.
It's called statistics. Check out exit polls for German or Polish elections (not to be confused with predictions). Even when polls are incorrect, they are off by 2-3%.
By definitin about half of advertisers will be below average and a lot of publishers will get smart priced, some more, some less, but there is no evidence that smartpricing is somehow inaccurate or unfair. The biggest argument is "I used to get 50 cents, now I get 5". Sorry, this is not a proof of the system not being unfair, it means that Google advertisers may have overpaid in the past, the same way some companies overpaid for 25 dollar CPM banners in the dotcom era.

Still doesn’t explain why on some channels i sometimes experience 2-3 days of $2-$3 clicks and $0.01-$0.04 the next and then back again to high paying clicks and round and round it goes.

Wouldn’t A statistical frame work would have caused a more steady ppc income. The marginal differences in click pay are just too great for a simple statistical explanation. There must be other more important factors. It just doesn’t make sense that the same channel suddenly convert like crazy and then two days later it doesn’t....and then again it suddenly convert again, and then not....nope this is not it. There must be other greater factors.

[edited by: Max_M at 1:52 pm (utc) on Nov. 14, 2005]

[dzcap]

no one knows how sp works except david..hahaha

[DavidDeprice]

Please, accept my congratulations, dzcap, if you really over 10000 bucks each month, as you claim, then you are all set. Not quite sure why you'd waste your time complaining.

As far as Max's question about channels - I can't say anything specific, unless there are numbers. Statistics is an exact science. If you know how many clicks you get for specific channel (per day, week or month) and know what the average value is, than you can calculate what your normal deviation is. I've gambled in Vegas ones and there were seven reds in a row (the probably of getting red is the same a getting black). Seven reds in a row (or seven blacks in a row) definately seems out of the ordinary, but statistically speaking there is 1/1920 (unless I made a mistake) chance that it will happen and I was a witness to when it DID happen. I am sure other people though that it was rigged and I had the same feeling, but it was not.

[dzcap]

Who said I was satisfied? I am aiming much higher. I am complaining because I could be earning a lot more.

[Max_M]

I've been long enough in this business to know that internet marketing is no Vegas.

A well presented page + with targeted spot on ads/products + quality targeted traffic (from the right countries and the right sources) = good conversations.

Steady variables (like the above mentioned) should = steady pay per click....that's IF conversions are really properly tracked and being put into the formula the way they should or are said to be put.

[DavidDeprice]

Sorry, dzcap, buddy, look's like you are pulling our legs, so to speak. I've checked your records - your site was banned by Google in August of this year, being only two months old, you don't have as many sites as you claim and I find it hard to believe that you make five figure income. I am not quite sure what's the reason for pretending you are something you aren't.

[DavidDeprice]

God, this is so funny, DZCap, you are a total nub, less then 5 months with AdSense, only about 10 days with YPN, got conned into paying 70 bucks for someones YPN invite that you can't use - which means you are really green - and you are trying to make us believe you really make all that money? Dude, this is so silly.

[wheelie34]

no one knows how sp works except david..hahaha

sounds more like a 12 year old or a Dizzy Chap

Sp hits almost everyone at sometime, I increased my traffic and got smacked, but now since Jagger 1,2,3 & flux have lost some of that traffic, BUT, still earn about the same........so far

[DavidDeprice]

Thanks to Jenstar, we know how smart pricing works and we also know that it's a weekly deal. Certainly most publishers are likely to get hit with smart pricing at one point or another, but if you are stuck there week after week, it probably means something's wrong with the site (or account more accurately), not google.
It really sucks too that, despite that this is really a professional forums with dozens of very experienced men and women who know what they are talking about and can help with their advice, occassionally folks like dzcap will slip by and pretend like they really know things, and it turns out that it's some green nub who talks about YPN, but has not been with it for more than two weeks. At first I actually believed that dzcap was a legit publisher with a team that helps him start sites who's suffering from smartrprcing for no apparent reason, but it certainly does not look like it any more. Might be some cocky kid who wants to look smart and rich. Dont' worry, DZCap, we all went through that stage. And it really does pay to KNOW things, which only comes with experience. Don't give up, put some thinking into idea that we create what happens to us and try asking "what's wrong with me" first, before asking "what's wrong with Google, government, American women, Wall Street ... whatever, the list is endless.

[dzcap]

I love doubters...already made over $100 today on YPN.

You've just embarassed yourself. LOL!

[edited by: dzcap at 3:16 pm (utc) on Nov. 14, 2005]

[DavidDeprice]

Sorry but I simply can't believe you any longer. It just does not jive together - you get your site banned by Google (for "no reason" as you say)when your site is only two months old, you don't know that you can't use other people's YPN and get conned out of 70 bucks, as of past month, you did not even know if smartpricing affect the entire account, site or certain pages and were asking around, this just does not sound like a person who's been around for a while. That screenshot proves nothing, especially since you lost all credibility by pretending.
You've been with AdSense for only five months, correct? And you've been with YPN only about a week, right? This certainly sounds fishy. First you say you make five digits each month, which whould mean over ten grand at least, then you say you make only 1 cent a click with AdSense, then you say you make 100 bucks a day with YPN. Sounds like a lie to me.
How many sites do you have? How about a number?
Is it several sites a week or is it "10 sites a week", as you say your goal is. I don't know any successful publishers, besides cybersquaters and expired domain buyers who manage to add 10 sites a week.
This awfully remind me highschool talk "I've slept with 80 women". So far, nothing that you wrote suggests that you are a successful online enterpreneur.

[edited by: DavidDeprice at 3:23 pm (utc) on Nov. 14, 2005]

[dzcap]

Lost all credibility by pretending? I AM making that much, it's not pretending, but if believing that makes you sleep better, be my guest.

You're right, I do not sound like a person who's been around for awhile. Didn't I already said I started less than 5 months ago?

Doesn't jive together? When did I say I only have one site?

I would guess a lot of people didn't know smart pricing was account wide, so what do you have against me for asking about it? In fact, jensense just posted about it late October.

You just embarassed yourself again, when will you stop?

BTW, I won't waste anymore time arguing with you. I got more sites to bust out. LOL!

[Max_M]

When will you both stop LOL....

[dzcap]

I am stopping now, arguing with him has costed me at least a breakfast AND lunch. I don't want to lose a dinner as well. =D

[hunderdown]

Something to add to the mix:

Swings in your EPC are not necessarily caused by Smart Pricing. With the same traffic, same CTR, if visitors click on different ads, EPC can be drastically changed. I'm not saying that the following effects everyone, but you should consider it.

This is based on my site, but the numbers are made up.

I have seen clicks worth less than 5 cents, and others worth more than a dollar, and a whole range in between. Let's assume a small site or channel with 1,000 impressions and 50 clicks over the course of the day. Half are 5 cents, half are $1.00. (Of course, it's more complicated than that, but this simplification helps me make my point.) Average: 52.5 cents per click. Pretty good, from what I've seen. But with the same traffic, same CTR, even the same ads showing, what happens if more visitors click on 5 cent ads? Say you got 40 5-cent clicks, and only 10 $1.00 clicks. All of a sudden, your average is 24 cents, less than half what it used to be.

Not smart pricing, but a change in the ads clicked on. I know some of you will have considered this, but I'm not sure that everyone talking about smart pricing is taking this into consideration. So all I'm saying, before assuming that smart pricing is bringing down your income, look into this possibility too....

[DavidDeprice]

When will you both stop LOL....

It's hard to stop, dzcap is such a funny fellow. He admitted that he is very new to adsense and YPN. I've come across one post where a guy says basically "please congratulate me, I'm finally making 50 bucks a day" and dzcap says "I am hoping to make $100000 (one hundred thousand dollars) a month in 6-8 months". DZCap who's new to AdSense, who managed to get his first site banned by google and does not know how to check if a domain has been banned or not before buying it, and got conned out of 70 bucks this month for somebody elses YPN invite will be making one 1.2 million dollars a year in a matter of 6-8 months. Sure, buddy, I believe you. Keep 'em coming. We'll be laughing together.

[dzcap]

That $100K/month is a goal, there's no guarantee I would reach it in time. Something more interesting is despite all these rookie mistakes, I've managed to come out way ahead. I work over 15 hours/day, I am not getting these hard earned money handed to me.

Now could we drop this please? What do you gain by embarassing yourself?

[dzcap]

I might actually have to thank you David, you don't know how motivated I am after reading your "encouragements". Be sure to bookmark this thread and we'll see where I am at in 6-8 months.

[moTi]

from what i've read from dzcap, i wouldn't believe this kid one word.. his diverse statements simply aren't consistent.

as well, people here stating their epc ranging by 10000%. get real!

also, you should know, that traffic growth is naturally not an equivalent to income growth in the same degree - more than ever when it comes to adsense. decreasing returns to scale. that's basic knowledge. smart pricing seems to take that into account correctly.

to me, looks like smart pricing is working very efficiently and in the right way..