Google ZOMBIE Traffic Observations

[samwest]

Mods Note: Split out of the October 2015 Monthly Observation thread into a separate Zombie Traffic Thread
---------------------------------
Sunday morning, usually banging away, but nothing but slow moving Zombie traffic, one or two at a time and sitting on the same pages for several minutes. Switch is currently OFF.
Still in decline. No sign of any seasonal upswing, which is way overdue.

[edited by: aakk9999 at 7:08 pm (utc) on Oct 19, 2015]

[Simon_H]

@Nutterum There is a potential explanation for what you're seeing and we see it too with remarketing. Remarketing has the effect of reminding people that they've been on a site before. But many don't click the remarketing ad, especially for higher value purchases, as they're in the middle of viewing a different website, or need more time to decide if they want to buy, or don't like clicking on those sort of tracking ads, etc. Having been reminded by the ads, the user then comes back to the site later when they're ready, but finds it through organic search or direct, i.e. organic or direct traffic appears artificially inflated and we see view-through-conversions. Might this explain what you're seeing?

I may be misunderstanding @Yukko, but I think there's a subtle difference between what you and he/she are saying. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but @Yukko is saying that simply the creation of a remarketing goal in GA (even a meaningless one) causes Google to increase organic traffic in order that it will generate remarketing ads and earn it money through unrealistic paid clicks. That's a very specific allegation!

[Simon_H]

At least with an iPad you have something physically in your hands that can be proven does not work. On the other hand, how is one going to prove that Google is using bad traffic to earn more money?

Errr... because you don't get any sales. So you stop using Google paid. Just like you would stop buying iPads if they didn't work.

Ask yourself why Google is shaping traffic at a time when the holidays are right around the corner.

Many believe they've been shaping traffic for years. And it's been 2 months since this phenomenon started getting written about. I see no relation to the holiday season.

this current trend of zombie traffic feels more like a money grab by Google to me.

I know it does! But you say (paraphrased): "Google is intentionally sending us non-converting traffic to earn more money. So I've turned off my campaigns." You do see that those statements are contradictory? If Google sends bad traffic, people turn off their campaigns. People only increase their paid spend if they see good conversions. You say that it's a short term strategy to send bad traffic, but I really can't imagine the Google board deciding that it's a great short term strategy to lose a load of money and/or a load of customers.

Consider that Google isn't (intentionally) generating bad traffic in order to steal your money. Could we perhaps explore some other reasons why there are these up/down apparent mismatches of user intent?

[Tourz]

10:00pm is the trigger hour for me. If I don't shut my android phone and tablet off before then there are no email inquires overnight and most of the next day. 9:55 is ok, 10:05 no.

[mrengine]

I think we can all agree whatever is happening has staying power. With that in mind, does anyone have any thoughts on solutions? Add more content, get more links, install Google Analytics or something else? I find it hard to believe we are all on the edge of a penalty, but who really knows. I would like to find a way out of this mess and doing everything right and by Google's own guidelines is not cutting it. If some would be so kind, can you please share some thoughts on solutions?

[WhiteHatTryHard]

Again Zombie Traffic. It shows best in our Facebook likes per week. Usually its about 200, now its a measly 80... Same with conversions. Last week was an ON week, now we get an OFF week. It's freaking amazing.

For literally 2 years our Facebook likes per week have been constant at 200+-20 and now this starting in mid September.

Best way to figure out what is happening would be to see WHO is getting the higher converting traffic during OFF times. So who is seeing conversion rate increases? Anyone?

*grabs pitchfork*

[Yukko]

I can't believe Google would make it that easy to prove/observe that they manipulate organic traffic in order to generate 'fake' paid clicks.

they prove they have the needed inventory for it.
they also proved many times they use A/B tests to optimize their own earnings and own conversions.

The argument that Google does this to make money out of fake/non-converting clicks is flawed

Come on! Google a just a big directory with scripts on a webserver. They do not know your business so well that they can definitely tell that the form is fake or not. The form is form for them. A piece of html. They do not know if you benefit from the fact people interact with this form or not. They do not know if people have offline conversions with you after filling the form if you do not tell them. Only you can say and determine that visitor's behavious is logic or not.

Just think of this scenario.
you've got a person interested in candy on your website
he reads the information about his favourite candy
you know he needs candies for his everyday meals, he consumes them a lot
he is interested in buying candy on your website, because you see him that he is interested in price, so he goes to the page with prices and clicks the button 'I want to have a price, please' and you catch this Event, mark him and start to remarket to him
As a remarketing Goal you promote your email list subscription which is actually a form
The visitor clicked the ad, filled the form and shared his email with you, he wants to know more facts about his favourite candy
he reads the emails you send to him
then you offer him a bonus. Free coupon to go and take half kilo of his favourite candies and the coupon can be redeemed downstairs in the candy shop. You tell him: just go to the store, give the coupon on cash desk and get your half kilo of candies, no obligations, no credit cards, no prepayments, everything is free. If you like the candies, just return to the shop any time you want and buy more. Half kilo of your favourity candies downstairs waiting for you when you go home and pass this candy shop.

The result. He goes in and redeems the coupon and... does not take the candies from the shop, does not even try.

This is exactly what I see except for the fact my product is not candies. And google stops tracking the customer on the moment he filled the form and subscribed. The subscription itself is a completed Goal for Google, a conversion. But Google script does not know the person did not even try the product after having redeemed the coupon in the candy shop. And at the same moment you see lots of other customers from other sources who just sit and eat their candies. Thousands of lucky guys eating sweet free candies. They act logic. They convert well in offline after having the coupon redeemed.

Suggesting that Google intentionally sends everyone fake/non-converting paid traffic for financial gain is like suggesting Apple would sell iPads that don't work to make money.

iPad is just an expensive well promoted facebook reader. So they are selling air to people who want to buy it. Google does the same. If you pay for conversions with no real Goal they will take your money with pleasure.

Just create a web form with one field for email ID and launch a campaign with an ad text similar to this:
A Senseless Form Here
Fill the form and get the secret now.
Do not miss the chance.

And people will click and convert, and Google will take your money.

[wgchris]

I haven't had time to get caught up on the many pages I've missed in this thread but more of the same over here except last thursday where there was a massive flood of conversions. Then the spigot was turned off. I'm still pounding the pavement on climbing serps, the result pages are showing gains but the traffic isn't changing. Truly bizarre.

[Yukko]

If Google sends bad traffic, people turn off their campaigns.

and lower the competition, so someone will start bidding again thinking he can convert the traffic better.

[masterjoe]

Zero conversions yesterday.

[goodoldweb]

Same here. Still nothing but dead beats.

I insist on keeping all my adwords campigans off. No longer going to support these gutless information super highway thives.

Now in the process of starting new Bing and facebook campaigns.

[masterjoe]

I was hoping things would remain as they did last week. There were some dips, but there were a few days where the sites were actually converting decently. I don't buy that Google doesn't know what they're doing, that's where myself and Simon differ. There are a lot of reasons it COULD be happening, but Google knows everything they do can have tremendous effects on their bottom line. They are squeezing more money out of less people (ad blockers, competitive browsers, etc etc).

[Simon_H]

@Yukko Thank you for explaining further. So, using your example, you're saying that Google is sending you real people via organic that seem to like candy, these real people are returning via remarketing, these real people are redeeming the coupon (= goal), but then not collecting the candy? I'm guessing there's a process in between the 'redeem coupon' and 'collect candy' that you're not mentioning. It may not involve paying, but does it, for example, involve the user entering their address or phone number in order to collect the candy? That'll kill conversions, especially from remarketing.

Otherwise, what are you alleging? Are you saying that these *aren't* real people, i.e. they're bots or users paid by Google to fake clicks? Or is the issue that these *are* real people (which is what you've maintained throughout), but you're frustrated because you can't understand why they don't collect the candy despite redeeming the coupon? If it's the latter, the issue plainly isn't with Google as Google is sending you real people interested in candy. The issue is some barrier on your website to users collecting the candy.

Regarding your point about if people turn off their campaigns, others will start bidding again, hence Google doesn't lose money, that's plainly incorrect. If merchants leave Google, the competition reduces, the less people bid, the average CPC drops and Google loses money. Google *needs* as many people as possible bidding on the same products/ad space to maximise profit. Not debatable!

[goodoldweb]

the less people bid, the average CPC drops

LOL... another fairytale Google would like you to believe.

[glakes]

"Google is intentionally sending us non-converting traffic to earn more money. So I've turned off my campaigns." You do see that those statements are contradictory? If Google sends bad traffic, people turn off their campaigns. People only increase their paid spend if they see good conversions. You say that it's a short term strategy to send bad traffic, but I really can't imagine the Google board deciding that it's a great short term strategy to lose a load of money and/or a load of customers.

Imagine if you could take half or more of the non-converting visitors to your site and make them buy something against their will. How much extra money would you earn? I know I would learn a lot. There's a lot Google can do with the data they have. As one that does not obsess over changing bids, I did not login to my Adwords account often nor did I have to because I was high bidder on the most important keywords and my competition is small because I'm in a small field. What this lead to is a delay in me pausing my campaigns. During this time Google made quite a bit of money off me by sending crap traffic. If this is replicated among all ecommerce websites, Google makes a ton of money and most ecommerce websites have no choice but to reactivate their campaigns prior to black Friday sales.

If Google were to hit 10% of each site within an industry with this crap traffic, there will always be others there to absorb paid clicks and generate Google money. It's a net gain for Google when they monetize people that otherwise are useless (no buyer intent) and should not have been monetized in the first place. This assumes they are real people in the first place, because as others have noted they do not behave like real people with a genuine interest in our products.

[Shaddows]

Just throwing this one out there: what if, due to the holidays, G is assuming "everyone's a buyer" - scrambling their usual intent-matching?

It's a net gain for Google when they monetize people that otherwise are useless (no buyer intent) and should not have been monetized in the first place

Interesting, but why displace your normal traffic?

[smj1980]

Hi everyone. I just had to come on here and share my experience.

October 13th was the day the conversions died!

About me:
Experienced in Adwords for 3+ years.
Daily spend of £5,000.
I know what I'm doing in Adwords.

I work in Insurance, which is a very competitive space on Google. Luckily I'm experienced in this field and know the dos and don'ts.

I started our new account on September 7th, with a small campaign and a few keywords *I know* convert. this account was setup and optimised well from day one. I spent a long time making sure the money was spent correctly. Everything was going fine. 35-40 conversions a day and all at, or below our target CPA.

Now, nothing. I see a few conversions a day but nothing on our site has changed. I have had the adwords account audited FOUR times and each Google specialist says it's all good.

Something isn't right here, I'm deadly serious. I've even seen the double conversions myself, had it happen about 30 mins ago.

I used to be a private investigator and have spoken to my Google rep this morning and told him all this. I told him I know something is going on, there are patterns, I told him I used to be a PI and will be investigating this starting today. He absolutely s**t himself. Since our conversation this morning, I've had 5 conversions - I do NOT believe in coincidence.

He's emailed me twice suggesting I wait and see what happens - he basically wants me to drop it. He's done a complete about turn and gone from knowing everything about this to "Sorry this isn't my field of expertise" - what's not your field? Adwords? Why do you work there then friend?

This is too weird.
<snip>

[edited by: aakk9999 at 9:53 am (utc) on Nov 13, 2015]
[edit reason] Please read Terms of Service [/edit]

[Jez123]

There are also similar styled threads to this one happening on eBay and Amazon. They are blaming Amazon / eBay for the downturn in sales as you blame google. I have always believed that gooogle favours those 2 brands above all else so are they deliberately affecting them? Why the change if so? It must be something else that is happening to google as well as others on here. As well as Amazon / eBay.

[Jez123]

spoken to my Google rep this morning and told him all this

I seriously doubt that an adwords rep would be privy to the kind of info that you are talking about. Would they trust the trust of google to an adwords rep? I find that hard to believe given how secretive google are.

[smj1980]

Believe me, he's crapping himself.

[Jez123]

Believe me, he's crapping himself.

He might be scared to lose a decent account? £5,000 a day is not to be sniffed at IMO.

[Shaddows]

"Hello Newbie Employee in a glorified Sales role.

"Welcome to Google. I will now induct you into the Secret Society of the Googlers. You will know of the Zombies, and the Pandas. Yours shall be the knowledge of the Penguins.

"You shall meet Vince.

Welcome, my brother"

[smj1980]

True, but our money is best placed either:-

A - Down the toilet
B - Thrown out the window

Can't do worse than the result Google is giving me.

No one can explain the 13th October to me. Where did all my conversions go?

[masterjoe]

smj1980 I believe Simon_H might be able to help you there. He has looked into this for a while now and is good with statistics that might help your cause. I too believe that there is something very fishy going on here considering how many of us have been affected. The adsense guys are having a hard time with lowered click throughs too so you might want to check their corner out if you want to build a case up.

[smj1980]

I can only approach this from a PPC perspective.

We do not attempt any SEO or anything else.

<snip>
They have been fleecing me for roughly 5k everyday since the 13th October. Somewhere in the £140,000 region. see why I'm pi**ed?

We are a clean business, heavily regulated in the UK so we HAVE to be clean. Everything we do is scrutinised by the regulators so we can be nothing but clean.

We're not a lead generator, we're an actual business that generates it's own customers. We don't even re-market our customers yet. We NEVER sell their details or pass them on to anyone - it's one of my USPs. We're doing NOTHING to deserve such a crap ride on Google, and overnight I might add. This happened on one particular day, yet no one can tell me why.

[edited by: aakk9999 at 9:57 am (utc) on Nov 13, 2015]

[masterjoe]

I believe he has done PPC in the past and paused his campaigns due to non-converting traffic. We have come to a lot of possibilities but that's all they are... there are also several others who have turned off their PPC campaigns. You will be able to reach out to them if you read through the thread, as it is quite convoluted at the moment with theories as to why this is happening.

I feel your pain -- that is a LOT of money that disappeared straight into Google's bank account with zero return on your investment -- I hope you do escalate this and get even.

[Simon_H]

@Jez123 There was also an earlier post about etsy sellers seeing this. However, the threads on ebay/Amazon I've seen relate to a general decline in sales over time rather than the zombie phenomenon (on/off high/low conversion days). Is that what you've seen? A sales decline is obviously a concern, just perhaps not for this thread.

@smj1980 We're having a similar conversation with Google paid! We've found significant errors in Merchant Center/GA/Adwords reporting and repeatedly asked them if this is related to the up/down conversion rates. Every email response from them simply refuses to answer the specific points and just says that they've checked our account over and everything is fine, so we should just play with our bids. To be fair, the rep is very nice and trying to help, but the reps tend to be trained in how to use the tools and the basics of campaign management, but don't have a clue about any more detail than that.

@masterjoe I *do* think it's intentional, I just don't think it's malicious or Google is faking traffic/bots. There will always be 'good' and 'bad' traffic, i.e. queries that Google is confident in matching and queries that Google isn't. It has to show *something* in the serps for each. And I guess our sites are being switched to appear in a disproportionately high number of low-confidence match serps, presumably because our sites fulfil some criteria, resulting in low CRs during the 'off' periods. So, yes, it's intentional! Or it's a technical disaster. I just don't think it's Google being evil.

@glakes Let's agree to disagree. I do see what you're saying and I hope you see what I'm saying. I just can't see Google intentionally doing that. The net effect of advertisers seeing a reduced CR or negative ROI will always be that bids are reduced or campaigns shut off (even if there's a delay in advertisers doing this) which means that Google will lose money. If you turn your campaign back on for Black Friday and see you're making a loss, you're going to turn it off again, no? Whereas if you see a good ROI, you'll continue paying Google and potentially increase bids to maximise profit? Hence my point.

[Jez123]

@Jez123 There was also an earlier post about etsy sellers seeing this. However, the threads on ebay/Amazon I've seen relate to a general decline in sales over time rather than the zombie phenomenon (on/off high/low conversion days). Is that what you've seen? A sales decline is obviously a concern, just perhaps not for this thread.

Very much this month and last month, @ Simon_H, and continuing. The eBayers seem to think it's eBay's issue etc. They are saying stuff like:

things dropped off on sept. 16th. something clicked off. the ebay circuit breaker snapped off. who can fix?

[Simon_H]

@Jez123 Woah. That corresponds with when some on this forum (including us) saw this start. It also brings back to the frame the possibility that iOS9/adblockers could be involved, which was around that date and would explain why this isn't restricted to Google. Or it could be that eBay and Amazon are getting bad traffic from Google like the rest of us. But, as you say, why would Google want to do that to them?

[Jez123]

@ Simon_H eBay and Amazon have enough of their own traffic I would guess that they would not feel the squeeze so much or so fast I would imagine. They are not totally reliant on G.

[WhiteHatTryHard]

Yesterday 20% usual conversions and today 200% usual conversions. And that at over 10k unique visitors a day.

Feels like playing roulette now.