2015 - emerging trends on search, what are you predicting?

[Whitey]

Here's some things/questions happening recently that I saw :

- Matt Cutt's may have left his previous Google role for good [ is there such a need for a role on outreach with the new algo's ]... what's the signal ?
- Duane Forrester made redundant at Bing [ ditto , following Google ]
- Panda quality algo seems resolute and relatively unforgiving
- Penguin was certainly resolute and hasn't forgiven anyone en-masse
- Mobile growing exponentially at the expense of desktop search
- More competitive platforms strengthening to be seen on e.g. Social / Facebook , Pinterest , Instagram
- Will search engines alone matter as much in the grander scheme of things
- Smarter SEO ?

What search engine trends are you seeing, what does it tell us, and how will your competitors embrace the changes in 2015 .... / thoughts ?

[incrediBILL]

Predictions:

More 4th dimensional (4D) search: TIME.

Originally search was 2D, just indexing documents based on the keywords within. Then everything became 3D with location awareness thanks to mobile and GPS for all sites that have real world addresses. Then, thanks to Taco Bell, WalMart and Walgreen staying open after midnight, we needed to know not only where places were but WHEN they were open thus 4D search results were born. I expect to see a lot more places get their hours online so mobile users know who's open NOW. Search results are good at 4D now but it's mostly big businesses that get that data online as the smaller shops and their associated lower paid SEOs, or lack of SEO, hasn't figured out time yet.

If you haven't tried yet, some SEs even know what places are open for Breakfast and the hours it's served! Not too common but that type of time search will become the norm in 2015.

Link Builders die while Link Disavowers thrive. The sins of the past are now coming home to roost and often the same people that built those bad links know where all the bodies are buried and they're double dipping at even higher prices to exhume those link corpses. Wish I'd thought of it! :)

Creating Junk Links for profit. Some of the old link builders might just keep building junk links to keep the disavow business hot and heavy. The trend of link extortion, charging serious money to remove bad links, might escalate. I think it's going to get ugly before link extortion is stopped but SEs create new problems every time they try to solve one and the cure is turning out to be way worse than the problem. which is why I predict...

Website Conferences and Classes will peak in popularity Site owners having been burned in search will try to become as educated as possible to take control of their own destiny or at a minimum, try to understand what their SEOs are saying and know what they should be doing. Education is going to be more lucrative than ever IMO.

More Local Directories suffer violent deaths. The SE's now know where many sites in many niches actually reside and are pushing local sites using this knowledge above those that curate that knowledge. Often those directories are how the SEs got that niche data in the first place so the irony of killing the hand that fed the index.

Escalated Fight for Control of the mobile search box. Amazon took a stab at it with the so-far failed Fire phone. However, many people use the Amazon app to search and bypass Google or Bing in the first place. My prediction is Amazon might get more aggressive about taking more control over ALL Android device search assuming their agreements re:Android, or the technology itself, prohibit such tactics.

Many more small sites will suffer as SEs continue to make massive changes Search engines will be making so many changes in 2015 trying to please more surfers to the point that I don't think anyone is safe anymore. For every site that goes down a different site goes up in the ranks so someone is reaping the rewards of someone else's tragedy. Just like jobs in an office, if one guy gets fired another gets hired to replace him. Many site owners aren't technical, don't know SEO, and rely on paying others to keep them current if they can afford it which is a catch-22 when they hit hard times in the SE.

Well Google murdered all those Mom and Pop websites and now Amazon is going to gut Google.

While I'm pretty sure the topic is search trends, not search complaints. If we want to continue this topic, start a new thread.

However, what you call murder I call suicide. based on their bad business model> Basing success solely on free traffic is what ultimately tanked many of those mom and pop sites. Free traffic only has never been a good business plan unless your business model is unemployment. Plus many of them did the bad kind of link building (see above) and their onsite SEO also probably suffers. Anyway, let's start a thread if we want to discuss it.

[Leosghost]

Just like jobs in an office, if one guy gets fired another gets hired to replace him.

That was the old way..before "downsizing"..nowadays it's "one guy gets fired, then so does another, and another, and another , etc etc"..

G ( and the other SEs ) would love to "downsize" the web, noticed how many "cached" pages actually don't have any content there these days..Hardware is an expense...data centres are hardware..keeping an ever growing index and "crunching" it..is an expense..

SEs could just let many pages and sites fall right off their grids..forget the paths that lead to them..some sites could turn into the equivalent of the "bag people" and those who live in the storm drains and the disused subway tunnels..kind of like being lower than page 3 for a search term..

[brotherhood of LAN]

This one is maybe for another thread, I wonder if there'll be a fundamental change in the way SERP's are displayed for the virtual reality headsets that seemingly will get very popular? Not so much different to Google Glass now I think about it.

With the extra space and better spatial awareness, the results could be displayed entirely differently.

[incrediBILL]

Not so much different to Google Glass now I think about it.

Google glass is augmented reality, not VR, the amount of display space and spacial relationships would be massively different.

Now if you put a camera in front of VR goggles and blend reality into a VR space, then you could do some really rocking interfaces.

Just to watch Minority Report and a few other movies where they imagined a VR index and get some clues.

Instead of SERPs, you might see a row of 100 web pages going into the distance making browsing the results an immersive experience, but that's 5 years out to be reality. Maybe a prototype in 2015.

Fully Voice Interactive SERPs It's already close to reality as my Android tablet with some voice options enabled, uses voice input for the query string and actually reads the first result when it displays. Not quite Siri, but I could see a more interactive search where it reads the actual answers interactively, more of a conversant format, where you don't even had to look at the screen to find out what you need to know.

[brotherhood of LAN]

Yes there is the "out and about" augmented reality, and the full-on headgear will provide more real estate... though for "vanilla" SERPs, Googling for non-geographic stuff then it seems there'd be way more scope for a new layout instead of 1-10 results + side dressings + ads.

Minority report... their UI's did seem to be well done.

[Whitey]

Somewhere in this thread, someone said we should really redefine mobile to mobility. Maybe upgraded convenience that's constantly on the move.

Add to that wearables, that don't microwave my brain in place of the cables, headphones, spare battery I carry, wallet, keys and loose change I loathe and getting information, all information now and when I want it, yes now. You can see where 2015 is heading from your own personal experience. And search has to cope with that.

And that's so true, conferences will have to make a big comeback, because a lot of people are going to have to relearn and create constant new approaches at a lightening pace.

One more prediction for 2015. Huge gaps will show in Google's capacity to cater for all tastes and methods of search retrieval on one set of results. Something has got to give big time giving rise to specialisations in search.

At the end of 2015, we will look at 2010 search as a dinosaur.

There's some electric predictions in the above from our Mods. Great thinking. Love it.

[incrediBILL]

way more scope for a new layout instead of 1-10 results + side dressings + ads.

If you want to see what augmentef reality browsing is like today, and it's VERY COOL, take a look at Layar.

[youtube.com...]

I tried it a few times, just went out into the city and when you hold up the camera all sorts of information tags came up. Tags for local businesses, historical facts, etc. which gave a lot of life to static scene. It was wild.

This is where it's headed but I think for a SE which tech is beyond them for 2015, maybe 2020 at the speed they're moving unless Glass comes way down in price. For maybe $500 the whole family would have a pair ;)

Perhaps this kind of tech would educate people about the world around them and they wouldn't even know they were being tricked into learning things as it's so much fun.

we should really redefine mobile to mobility

Excellent point as using my phone to look something up sitting at home is not the same as when I'm mobile, the results I want are often totally different.

Perhaps the device should simply ask if you want mobile localized results or standard global search results. You could set options such as when at home use global results and when moving use mobile results.

Heck, for all we know they do that already and don't tell us ;)

[Whitey]

This is where it's headed but I think for a SE which tech is beyond them for 2015, maybe 2020 at the speed they're moving unless Glass comes way down in price. For maybe $500 the whole family would have a pair ;)

Google bolted perhaps too early with this one. Adoption will come, but likely in a different version.

It won't be long before phone carriers market a bundle of complimentary devices in "mobile plans" to cloak the apparent real expense.

But imagine the implications on privacy and security.

If you want to see what augments reality browsing it like today, and it's VERY COOL, take a look at Layar.

[youtube.com...]

I tried it a few times, just went out into the city and when you hold up the camera all sorts of information tags came up. Tags for local businesses, historical facts, etc. which gave a lot of life to static scene. It was wild.

That's awesome.

•Bring print and digital together in one cohesive package
•Enhance your customer and brand engagement
•Increase reach and achieve higher conversion rates
•Add competitive innovation and value to advertising
[layar.com...]
I think newspapers could make a comeback and a lot of old bricks and mortar business' too. Incredible [ no pun intended ]!

This gives search a completely new meaning in how knowledge and commerce can be discovered.

[glakes]

Perhaps this kind of tech would educate people about the world around them and they wouldn't even know they were being tricked into learning things as it's so much fun.

Blended in the facts will be advertisements. I can see the day when seasonal allergies may trigger unwanted blinks, sneezes, etc. that would create unwanted Adwords clicks. Forget click fraud, allergies may be even worse!

[seoskunk]

Interesting @Incredibill except you forgot one thing, Amazon has thrived under Google's obsession of penalisation. Amazon is now the NUMBER 1 PLACE TO BUY. Not Google , your comments and predictions seem to follow the same course that has taken Amazon to number 1 spot on shopping.

As Facebook in particular commercialise thier pages I see increased pressure for diversity in Google's results. Only a mad man would continue down a path that see's Amazon and Ebay as the saviour of SME's online. And Google irrelevant for shopping!

[thedonald123]

EditorialGuy

- In 2015, we'll begin to see even more segmentation in search. Mobile vs. desktop is a good example: "One size fits all" doesn't always work, and responsive layouts aren't always a panacea...
... or it might make different assumptions about user intent based on whether the query is coming from a conventional or cellular network.

^^Love this
Responsive Design makes sense because of how difficult it is to keep up with 2 different code bases, but mobile and desktop are two different beasts, just go to your Adsense account and view CPM's by Platform.

I was looking at a Google Search page on my smartphone the other day and I didn't click through to websites that didn't have the "mobile-friendly" indicator. I actually found myself wishing there was a filter to block non-mobile friendly sites from the search results. I don't have time to pinch and zoom around on a tiny screen!

Google Search results these days are completely about user satisfaction (IMHO) and so Desktop search shouldn't be affected by a site not being mobile friendly. I wonder how difficult it would be for Google to keep two different set of search results. Or perhaps it's just taking personalization of Search results, which has existed for years, up another few notches and they already have the concept built into the algorithm. And as mentioned earlier in this thread, maybe Google is already doing this. I haven't noticed it but it's hard to get non personalized results on a phone, so I don't pay much attention to my positions on mobile.

Google Webmaster Tools by default displays Search Queries for Desktop only (Web).
Maybe it's an indication that there already are 2 different result sets Mobile and Web?

[Whitey]

And that's so true, conferences will have to make a big comeback, because a lot of people are going to have to relearn and create constant new approaches at a lightening pace.

Imagine this :

- sitting in a conference where everything the speaker says is referenced on wearables

then

- Congress / Parliament sits for debate and every word is tracked for accuracy and responded to accordingly by the opposition
- when a salesman talks, reference sources call out errors
- as a doctor examines he reads back data to a database that measures the probability and gaps in a diagnosis
- when you shop at the supermarket, you scan the items and compare your basket to next doors prices, and save

and the list goes on

.... and some of this get's fed into a centralised database with access in the SERP's to implement advertising and organic listings on.

I'm not sure if folks have woken up to what a revolution we are headed for. And I predict huge gaps of opportunity. I predict more people will be talking about this in 2015 and getting things close to a huge change.

[edited by: Whitey at 6:26 am (utc) on Jan 4, 2015]

[Leosghost]

2 different result sets Mobile and Web?

Have been for a while now..

Layout is different too..

G began experimenting with it around the time of the threads about "zombie traffic" here, "zombie traffic" from what I could see, ( I looked at a lot of sites that were complaining of it, 99% were not "mobile" or responsive ), was in great part about non responsive / non mobile friendly sites showing up in mobile search..

They were getting the traffic ( if they were in the top 3 on SERP ) but the visitors were not bothering with the "pinch and zoom", or were getting lost on the page trying "pinch and zoom" ( sites built for desktop show too small to read ) and even with a "mobile" link in the nav the nav itself , and thus the link, is too small to read ) mobile visitors were hitting the non mobile sites and not knowing what to do , or where to go, so were backing out..

G were running experimental SERPS, sending normal SERPS to visitors with mobile devices "zombie traffic" ( especially from mobile phones ) was the result..

G then began sending "device dependent SERPS"..complaints about "zombie traffic" dried up, same posters began saying that their traffic levels were way down at times..

The mobile devices were no longer "seeing" them in the same places in SERPs, they were usually lower, thus less traffic..*

Mobile..( especially phones ) you are not in one of the top 3 positions on page 1..forget the traffic..

I don't think that they are done experimenting with mobile device SERP layouts, expect more in 2015..

*If you ( addressing no-one in particular ) didn't / don't see this "device dependent SERPs, don't forget "personalised SERPs" and the fact that we here are all more inclined to persevere on a bad landing page, such as a "desktop page" which we hit on our phone, normal surfers cant read the page, try to "pinch and zoom" ,get "lost", back out in frustration..

They especially do not look for a "mobile site" link..

[Whitey]

Pre-emptive technology

Technology has always enabled us to get what we want, faster and easier. We've been moving towards a world of real-time updates and notifications, and 2014 even saw real-time branded content.

2015 will see things go a step further, from real-time to pre-empting. Google Now has offered a glimpse of how this will work with information, but there will be much more. Content providers will get better at predicting what we want to watch or read with improved recommendation engines, or even by analyzing our voice or biometrics through wearables. Our connected homes will know when we're on the way home and when to switch on the lights. Marketers will need to respond to this and learn how to spot trends before they happen so they too can pre-empt what their customers want.

Connected cars

Along with the home, next year will see the rise in ownership of connected cars and media consumption within them. Demand is rising, with research reporting 50% of global drivers saying connected car features will be critical when buying their next car. Both Android and Apple have in-car operating systems which will start to appear in certain manufacturer's new cars next year.

Media consumption within cars will increase in 2015; Spotify is already available as an app, news headlines from your favourite apps will be narrated to you, podcasting services will be able to sync across devices so you can get in your car and carry on listening from where you left off on your phone.
In-car advertising for marketers will become a lot more sophisticated. Location, make and model, even distance driven could potentially be used to target the right audience.

[theguardian.com...]

I wonder how laws around the World will cope with connected drivers as the technology accelerates. Wearables with some of the technology mentioned above, could mean some drivers are connected permanently.

It was amazing for me to witness in Texas recently that it was ok to text and drive. You'd get heavily fined in Australia / NZ for that, and I think in Europe. Go to the UAE and you get folks driving 100mph/160kph ++ watching their mobiles. Hell's bells - policing seems ineffective there! Do it several times here and Europe, and you may end up in gaol.

In 2015 I predict more road accidents from folks interacting with search on their devices as authorities struggle to keep up.

(There's an opportunity out there for some safety protection products to counteract the risks)

[elguiri]

I think the EU case against Google will give Google, at the very least, a fright. So, displaying results only, or almost only from their own properties will be too dangerous to roll out in a region where they have 90% of the search market.

I therefore don't see Google going fast in this direction in 2015 in Europe, and the case may also give them food for thought in the US.

The EU action has plenty of politics about it. However, there is some logic that is working it's way through legislative thought processes.

Search has become a utility, like telephones.

Google has an effective monopoly in Europe, and I think we can all agree that monopolies are a bad thing. Google is the largest player in an oligopoly in the US. Oligopolies are also bad things.

You don't have to believe that Google itself is either good or bad to believe that monopolies, oligopolies and cartels are bad things.

Most major companies in the US and Europe derive a significant part of their revenue from their organic listings in Google. That Google is the unaccountable arbiter over whether a company can grow that portion, or lose it altogether, is an unsustainable position to maintain.

I believe this fact is going to affect the evolution of Google's SERP page over the next year or two.

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Everyone talks about the growth of mobile as being important for 2015, and I'd certainly agree with that.

As people with businesses online to run (I'm an affiliate marketer) we need to get down to the specifics of how that will impact us (as it already is) and what we're going to do about it.

I did like the comment on the merging of mobile and desktop screens though - that's a great point. In the meantime though we have some very practical issues to deal with, such as:

1. Mobile lead capture - how to create forms that require less typing and clicking and convert really well on mobile.

2. Mobile shopping carts and their optimization

3. Out-of-the-box template responsive design isn't going to be good enough - the content ordering usually isn't optimal on mobile. (anyone got a plug-in for that?)

4. What are the high ROI ways to get into in-app advertising?

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Links will still be really important this year:

1. Getting good ones
2. Getting rid of bad ones
3. Monitoring of link growth

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Social signals as a ranking factor for most smaller niches will make few advances over 2014.


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Young people opting out of Facebook will become a really big thing. How the hell do you market to people on Snapchat anyway?

[RedBar]

+1 elguiri, excellent post.

3. Out-of-the-box template responsive design isn't going to be good enough - the content ordering usually isn't optimal on mobile. (anyone got a plug-in for that?)

Are you referring to WordPress?

[elguiri]

Thanks, RedBar.

Yes I was referring to Wordpress, as it's my tool of choice, but probably applicable to other systems too.

Like most marketers, I needed to go responsive because a) sites weren't converting on my mobile, b) a custom designed mobile version doesn't fit with my cost/revenue model and c) Google looks to favor sites that work on mobile in mobile search.

The easiest/cheapest solution is a responsive template. Having worked with quite a few now, however, I'm starting to see their limitations. Don't want the solution to be spending $K's on designers though.

[RedBar]

Yes I was referring to Wordpress

I think netmeg has the answer to that, will sticky you the other info.

[elguiri]

Thanks!

[Nutterum]

In 2015 even more people will get bored with the "gate" SERP results that dominate the top 3 results and thus will turn even more so to more "direct" websites like Amazon as mentioned earlier.

The real killer for Google will be Google themselves, so long they provide a directory/specific search/huge brands/generic wikipedia type top results on their pages.

Ahhh the irony - use the Google search engine to give you results of another specific search engine...