According to Google: Penguin 3.0 is continuing

[Robert Charlton]

Search Engine Land reported this morning that it had received confirmation from Google that serp changes many were reporting over the Thanksgiving weekend are a continuation of the Penguin 3.0 rollout that began on Friday October 17....

Google: Penguin 3.0 Rollout Still Ongoing
Google says the Thanksgiving ranking shuffle is related to the Penguin 3.0 release from six weeks ago.
Barry Schwartz on December 1, 2014 at 11:48 am
http://searchengineland.com/google-penguin-3-0-rollout-still-ongoing-209886 [searchengineland.com]

Google has confirmed with us that the shifts and changes reported throughout the industry on Thanksgiving day were a result of the Penguin 3.0 refresh that first began rolling out 6-weeks ago.

Google told us in response to what we saw on Thanksgiving day, "the Penguin rollout is ongoing, and this is just the effect of that."

There's been lots of speculation in several discussions here about whether this was a Penguin algo Update. As I interpret what Barry has reported, what we're now seeing is an ongoing rollout of Penguin version 3.0.

My own speculations here: I'm thinking that the algorithm may be highly "recursive"... with the same or related processes repeated on the results of the previous operations, giving us results that are increasingly refined. There's likely a pause to check results at every step, so Google can gauge whether the algorithm is working as anticipated and decide what to do next. Perhaps this will eventually lead to a procedure that can be maintained on a more continuous basis.

See...
Recursion Vs. Iteration
[www2.hawaii.edu...]

I'm not a mathematician, but I'm guessing that this is the kind of routine that might be involved.


PS: Mod's note: Added link I accidentally omitted a few months back to Barry's SEL article

[edited by: Robert_Charlton at 7:24 pm (utc) on Mar 4, 2015]

[EditorialGuy]

And from a recent JohnMu hangout, might continue continuing indefinitely...

Maybe it's time to stop thinking of Penguin as a freestanding entity and think holistically. In other words, think about where Google is headed, not where it's been.

[reseller]

Changes we notice at present aren't necessary only due to continuation of Penguin. There could be at the same time for example a "non-Penguine" refresh/update which is related to Google's search ranking algorithms.

So when Google told our kind friend rustybrick that "The Penguin rollout is ongoing, and this is just the effect of that." , they hven't excluded the possibility of any other refresh/update related to Google's search ranking algorithms.

[RedBar]

they hven't excluded the possibility of any other refresh/update related to Google's search ranking algorithms

Absolutely, what effect do any of the animals have on the 200/300/400 "updates" per annum, surely an unforeseen butterfly effect may occur?

[Essex_boy]

I have a term I always check 'widget clocks' adwords are for mostly aff sites organic Serps are Ebay and Amazon. Pure class Google well done !

[louieramos]

Today in Google Australia, I can see just one set of index/dataset and its composed of sites that recovered from Penguin penalty last year and some sites that we're penalized by Penguin this year and recovered (however they are not ranking as high as before). So it looks like the results I am seeing now are a combination of the previous 2 datasets, they were calcuted and morphed into 1 with the final outcome. I wish I have the time to explain it further.

[GreyBeard123]

Maybe it's time to stop thinking of Penguin as a freestanding entity and think holistically. In other words, think about where Google is headed, not where it's been.

Very good suggestion..

Changes we notice at present aren't necessary only due to continuation of Penguin. There could be at the same time for example a "non-Penguine" refresh/update which is related to Google's search ranking algorithms.

So when Google told our kind friend rustybrick that "The Penguin rollout is ongoing, and this is just the effect of that." , they hven't excluded the possibility of any other refresh/update related to Google's search ranking algorithms.

Yes, yes...

[Robert Charlton]

So it looks like the results I am seeing now are a combination of the previous 2 datasets, they were calculated and morphed into 1 with the final outcome. I wish I have the time to explain it further.

louieramos, thanks for that observation. It's consistent with how I imagine the algo working at this stage.

Again, just theorizing... Google may have come up with a semi-predictive algorithm, and for now may be testing and perhaps adjusting it recursively at every step against the original method to see what adjustments are needed. As described in the reference I posted above, it might be something like this....

If a recursive method is called with a base case, the method returns a result. If a method is called with a more complex problem, the method divides the problem into two or more conceptual pieces: a piece that the method knows how to do and a slightly smaller version of the original problem. Because this new problem looks like the original problem, the method launches a recursive call to work on the smaller problem.

For recursion to terminate, each time the recursion method calls itself with a slightly simpler version of the original problem, the sequence of smaller and smaller problems must converge on the base case. When the method recognizes the base case, the result is returned to the previous method call and a sequence of returns ensures all the way up the line until the original call of the method eventually returns the final result.

Again, I'm not a mathematician, but this seems consistent with the data sets morphing into one.

[louieramos]

youre welcome robert.. i had to digged up my very old programming skills to understand your reference there..i am thinking the same way, i think you're spot on... now the quesiton i have in my head is, the results i am seeing now, will it stick?

i think the update done in Australia today is the same update done in the US last thanksgiving..

also i know they were saying cache are not related to rankings, but i can see that Google have started refreshing the cache since yesterday, from October to December data

[GreyBeard123]

Since yesterday I notice sites (more than a few) that were slapped between 10 and 20 October (rankings fall 200+) are now completely regaining their rankings...

So, did Penguin devalued certain links (and thus slapped all these sites) and now it’s backtracking (or whatever it’s called) and as such releasing all these sites?

I do not think so…

Speculating, I would say Kelowna’s original assessment was correct and Penguin finished…
Thereafter something else came into play, perhaps Panda, perhaps a mixture, perhaps something completely new…

[tigger]

I agree something did change yesterday and I'm seeing 100% recovery on sites that were effected in October - I don't know whether its a roll back, i just hope it lasts

[Nutterum]

I think that we should stop thinking the algo updates Google implements as a statistical value sets that affect certain websites and thus the SERP for the competition of those websites, but rather as a data spiral.

The algo loops but iterates on itself to produce better outcome and then again and again. To me this is the only way Google can make up for the ever more personalized search results they are showing to their users. If my theory is correct sooner rather than later (as such data loops are driven by data sets manipulated in a geometrical progression) they will have to refresh and begin the process anew due to processing power difficulties, with the latest data set being the core value(with some manual tweaks), hence why we see a "refresh". I am suspecting that we will see many many more refresh types of algo implementations in the foreseeable future coming at ever more accelerating pace, again something hinted by Google in their official statements.

In short forget about who is being deranked and who is being resurrected from the SERP graveyard with the latest animal algo implementation and start thinking how your website will evolve in the age of ever fluctuating SERP results.

[RedBar]

I'm experiencing extremey low traffic levels today across all sites except one, new sites are going nowhere fast, no traction whatsoever.

[alraiah]

Also Arabic sites
There is a decrease in the number of visitors

[drall]

Couple sites bouncing like crazy...

[Nutterum]

The niche I monitor everything is going rather smooth, though I saw something strange - more and more social network links gain ranks in the SERPS, esp. Linkedin Business Pages. Anyone else seeing this?

[samwest]

Anyone know what this "Penguin Double Take" update is all about? See Algoroo. It knocked me out completely. Strangely, my search queries went UP after the 6th, but traffic clearly went down. How does THAT happen?

[EditorialGuy]

It's time to stop obsessing about Penguin updates, unless you're going to do it 24/7:

Google Says Penguin To Shift To “Continuous Updates”
[searchengineland.com...]

[samwest]

It's time to stop obsessing about Penguin updates

might as well shut down WebmasterWorld then...

[RedBar]

Google Says Penguin To Shift To “Continuous Updates”

Wow, there's a surprise...not!

[samwest]

Penguin Double Take has delivered the knock out punch. The site has been sitting at zero visits for hours. Looks like it's time to start the decommissioning process. I've given up on this site, you won Google.

[GreyBeard123]

Penguin Double Take has delivered the knock out punch. The site has been sitting at zero visits for hours. Looks like it's time to start the decommissioning process. I've given up on this site, you won Google.

How are your rankings?

[samwest]

@GB - paradoxically my rankings were unchanged...at least for the 100 or so key terms I monitor.

[GreyBeard123]

On average, do you rank within the first 20 spots?

[Sand]

Haven't seen any serious movements at all in my area. Traffic has been remarkably steady.

[samwest]

@GB - the site ranks page 1 above the fold on most searches. I don't track anything lower than pos 10. Ran some ball park figures and unless there's some hereto unknown mechanism at play, it's impossible to be this listed and yet get virtually zero human traffic....especially when days before it reached near record levels. However, I've learned to expect anything.

[RedBar]

and unless there's some hereto unknown mechanism at play, it's impossible to be this listed and yet get virtually zero human traffic

There seems to be a definite shift in the user's use of the web and probably more so in specific sectors such as ours, construction.

I was in a meeting earlier this week with several global buyers and we had all seen the same traffic reduction patterns even though all sites were still ranking well and their realword business was fine.

For a while now I have been hypothesising that the wild west days of the Net were well and truly over, during the noughties companies all over the world were scouring the Net searching for possible new suppliers for new products and trying to get them at even lower cost regardless of quality in many cases.

2008 put a big brake on that and many companies had to reconsider precisely the way they did business and with whom since a lot of companies went out of business since they simply did not have enough cash reserves to keep them going. New supply sources had to be found and once a new supplier is providing quality products at competitive prices then the need to KEEP trying to find ever lower prices is diminished.

After all, what's the point of being the cheapest wholesale outlet if one has no stock to sell?

I know my experience is not the same as everyone else's however there has to be an element, insofar as I am concerned, of truth in it since I see less traffic yet substantially more realworld business and so do the people I was talking to.

As an example one of those present until 2008 was wholesaling in the USA some 4,000 FCLs p.a., after the crash it went down to 2,000 FCLs, this year it will be 5,000 FCLs. They have a very minor www presence yet you will see their products in every Home Depot store with sales increasing.

[GreyBeard123]

the site ranks page 1 above the fold on most searches. I don't track anything lower than pos 10. Ran some ball park figures and unless there's some hereto unknown mechanism at play, it's impossible to be this listed and yet get virtually zero human traffic....especially when days before it reached near record levels.

It might be Google or something else; but your rankings indicate that it’s not links, and thus not Penguin, that’s throttling your site...

[samwest]

Whatever it is, it started in 2010 and slowly traffic dwindled. Tried everything under the sun. Time to pack it up. Can't live on being Google's Guinea Pig.

[toidi]

There seems to be a definite shift in the user's use of the web

The novelty has worn off and people don't search like they used to. The web used to be a fun place to wander around looking for new things. Then it became monetized, homogenized and boring.

Now people go to the internet after seeing an ad on tv. If your competition is on tv, you lose. If your competition is a brand, you lose.

Google is also losing out in all of this. Their profits are reported as fact but we only know what they tell us, and we all know they can't be trusted. Right now their main goal has shifted from search to boosting stock values.

[EditorialGuy]

The novelty has worn off and people don't search like they used to. The web used to be a fun place to wander around looking for new things. Then it became monetized, homogenized and boring.

Sure, it was fun to visit the Web page for Cambridge University computer lab's staff lounge back in 1993 and see how much coffee was in the glass coffee pot. But a lot more people are searching for information about coffee machines in 2014 than were doing it 20+ years ago. In fact, a lot more people are searching, period. Take a look at the statistics for Google Search:

[statisticbrain.com...]

That doesn't mean everyone who wants a toaster, a pair of brand-name khaki trousers, or a streaming device for watching Netflix movies is drilling down through a hundred pages of organic search listings to find what they want. They don't have to, and they probably don't want to make the effort. (The same thing is true in the physical world: If I want to buy a three-pack of name-brand undershirts, I don't go to a dozen different stores and compare prices. I go to Target, or Macy's, or J.C. Penney, or another store that I'm familiar with.)

Sometimes, organic search *is* the best way to find a product--or a reliable vendor. When I recently needed to replace my worn-out [imported footwear product that's hard to find], I did a Google search and found a business that carries that product. I ordered the [product], it arrived promptly, and now I'll know enough to go back to that store in two years' time when my new pair of [product] needs replacement. It's a win-win: I've found a reliable source of [product], and the merchant has acquired a new customer. But for ordinary, brand-name products that can be found anywhere (usually at identical or similar prices), there's little reason for me to use organic search, and any no-name business that hopes to attract by ranking 5th or 10th or 20th in Google organic search is likely to be disappointed.

As for Google Search, it's doing just fine, even if most people aren't searching for "real-time Webcam pictures of coffee machines in university computer labs" anymore.