Google Updates and SERP Changes - October 2014

[samwest]

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System: The following 8 messages were cut out of thread at: http://www.webmasterworld.com/google/4699490.htm [webmasterworld.com] by robert_charlton - 10:31 am on Oct 3, 2014 (PST -8)

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Traffic still lethargic here...funny how the traffic looks human, but acts like bots. I've never seen a human sit on a privacy page for 30 minutes, and yet have bounce rates of almost 70%.
The mobile vs. desktop pie chart shows 25% desktop, 14% mobile and 51% unknown.

[Wilburforce]

"Google policy is to get right up to the creepy line and not cross it."

They got that one wrong, then.

[ChrisWilson]

Same thing here, traffic is normal, or even a little bit higher, but right now, and for the past few days, it's been zombie like. This started for me around Tuesday and continues now.

[samwest]

@CW - exactly. same thing here..seeing some traffic and hits on the signup page, but you'd think it's made of Teflon.

Another odd observation is that these Zombies sit on single pages for longer than a normal human visit would. It only takes a minute or less to read 500 words, but these visitors are sitting for several minutes and not progressing through the site like a human visitor would.

When real people arrive, I can tell immediately just by the flow pattern. As I was writing this, the site had a dozen visitors, but suddenly it went to zero again, like a switch was triggered.

[Wilburforce]

traffic is normal, or even a little bit higher

Yes,

but right now, and for the past few days, it's been zombie like

I'm not sure zombie-like quite applies to my traffic, but it might as well be, as conversion-rate is zero.

[EditorialGuy]

"Personalisation" isn't based on what I tell them, but on what they infer from my searches and my location in the context of what they infer from other compiled (general and individual) data.

The trouble with that approach is that there is often a difference between what I actually want and what, statistically, I am likely to want.

Sure, but isn't that the nature of spidered search, with or without personalization? It's always going to be a bit of a crapshoot. If a librarian can't guess exactly what I have in mind when I walk up to the reference desk and say "widget" or "whatsit," why should an algorithm be any smarter?

[samwest]

why should an algorithm be any smarter?

because Google's CEO infers they can read your mind. I'd say that's smarter than the librarian...or sneakier.

[Wilburforce]

If a librarian can't guess exactly what I have in mind when I walk up to the reference desk and say "widget" or "whatsit," why should an algorithm be any smarter?

That is a fair point, but I think one major problem with the algorithm in its current state is Google's attempt to make it smarter.

In earlier stages, the algorithm behaved more like a super-fast, intelligent indexing system, and if you knew how to use it (if you used your own intelligence to query it) then it was very good at returning relevant results.

The massive growth in indexed content and in sites that attempt to game the system have presented two challenges that I think Google has not managed optimally (indeed, Penguin is an invitation to spammers to engage in negative SEO).

However, the "intelligent" algorithm's focus on locality and search history are in my view poorly judged.

I would not expect a librarian to respond to "David Copperfield" by asking "where do you live?", or, when I refine my request ("David Copperfield - Dickens") to base the answer on books I have already read.

[mrengine]

In earlier stages, the algorithm behaved more like a super-fast, intelligent indexing system, and if you knew how to use it (if you used your own intelligence to query it) then it was very good at returning relevant results.

Maybe the AI algorithm has been let out of crib and that baby is crawling around the web and trying to learn. Just like an infant, parents need to be ready to cleanup after the baby drools on the floor or for the frequent diaper change. That's what's missing here - Google employees not cleaning up their algorithm's mess. I see even old forum posts over ten years old ranking when the information in the posts does not apply to what we now know in this decade.

As far as the zombie traffic goes, I'm seeing it too. Thankfully the other search engines are converting otherwise online sales would be completely dead. I won't blame all of it on Google though. The stock market's recent tumble tends to make some of our customer base skidish when it comes to opening their wallets.

[RedBar]

I think one major problem with the algorithm in its current state is Google's attempt to make it smarter.

And that's precisely why they want to feed you cookies! They mistakenly believe that by feeding them to everyone they can, well, at least to the ones who'll accept them, that they have the magic answer since their cookies have told them so.

Forget the fact that you bought something a month ago, their cookies still want to keep pushing what they believe you want since they have no idea that the demand has already been satisfied.

The sooner everyone stops accepting cookies or at least delete them everytime they close their browser, the better Google would have to become since their idea of AI, cookies, is crap.

[samwest]

Maybe the AI algorithm has been let out of crib and that baby is crawling around the web and trying to learn.

It needs to learn a LOT faster...after all, Skynet took only 25 days to become "self aware".

The Skynet Funding Bill is passed. The system goes on-line August 4th, 1997. Human decisions are removed from strategic defense. Skynet begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, August 29th. In a panic, they try to pull the plug.

[smallbizpublisher]

Is it me or did something start on Google around 4pm yesterday (Thursday). Is this possibly the much anticipated Penguin?

[Wilburforce]

did something start on Google around 4pm yesterday

I don't see any major upheaval in the SERPs in my sector (UK, niche service), but I'm still looking into a 20%+ (non-converting) traffic bump.

I'm certainly not seeing anything that yet says "this is Penguin".

[SnowMan68]

Anyone seeing crazy amounts of crawling this week? Just looked at WMT's and it shows a huge spike on Oct 15th, like 3 to 4 times our daily avg. Something I haven't seen before.

[Shepherd]

Anyone seeing crazy amounts of crawling this week?

Nothing crazy, small spike on the 14th.

[SnowMan68]

Ours was HUGE

[tinypic.com ]

[Shepherd]

That is quite a spike!

[SnowMan68]

Haha, yeah. Seriously, never before. We are definitely being held back by Penguin and I'm wondering if the huge crawl is related to the upcoming release of the update. Generally in the past big spikes (not that big) have meant something was coming.

[bassie666]

I've had mostly ghost traffic with no conversion the last couple of days, seems today it's finally getting somewhere again, slight increase in conversion. Didn't see a drop in traffic though, only no conversions, while normally I get around 8 to 15 conversions a day :(

[Wilburforce]

@SnowMan68

I saw a big spike on 19 September, but nothing since then (almost no activity at all on 15 October, but at least we now know what Googlebot was doing at the time).

[samwest]

absolute pathetic flow of traffic again...1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0....funny how I can make conversions at 3 am yet nothing all day.

There is clearly a clamp on my site. On Bing I am #1 across the board on long-tail, semantic and plural searches, but Google has me locked down to a handful of non competitive key phrases or exact titles only - no semantic search whatsoever.

Yet, some thin answer site is ranking long tail across the board and on totally unrelated searches.

Somehow they appear to be re-directing even my low competition traffic (as if we're not worthy to even received that). AWSTATS shows me ranking on thousands of key phrases, but why is that traffic never getting here? Just too weird.

Is it possible to be TOO relevant to a topic?
I think if G removed the clamp, I'd be above the fold across the board, like I used to be with virtually the very same content. That would not be a profitable move for them when they can churn and burn ads through a thin result.

They were down a bit last quarter, so watch out for more aggressive moves in coming months...just in time to ruin holiday sales.

[rish3]

Google's results that just came out were a big disappointment for their investors.

Here's YoY % growth in paid clicks:

Q2 2013 - 23%
Q3 2013 - 26%
Q4 2013 - 31%
Q1 2014 - 26%
Q2 2014 - 25%
Q3 2014 - 17% <--- ouch

I suspect this will drive some more change and churn for us.

[Wilburforce]

@rish3

17% growth year-on-year wouldn't disappoint me. It is a dip in their growth rate, but it is still growth.

[samwest]

17% growth year-on-year wouldn't disappoint me. It is a dip in their growth rate, but it is still growth.

That's going to be a BIG disappointment for the egos in Mountain View...now we wait for the squeeze. Unfortunately for them this rock is dry.

[rish3]

17% growth year-on-year wouldn't disappoint me. It is a dip in their growth rate, but it is still growth.

17% is less than the overall growth in internet traffic and impressions. And, it's WAY less than their YoY growth for every quarter in the last three years.

I get what you're saying, but this is significant.

[Wilburforce]

17% is less than the overall growth in internet traffic and impressions

Ah! Therefore a drop in market share. About time!

[rish3]

Therefore a drop in market share.

Maybe, but it could also be...

• The shift from desktop to mobile, where CTR is clearly lower
  
• End users recovering from "ad blindness", perhaps from the new "Ad" tag on the ads
  
• They are out of "one time" tricks. A one-time trick, like shifting ads above organics, trying to hide that an ad is an ad, etc...will only net you one YoY bump per quarter.

[samwest]

Now they turned the lights out completely. I think the site is at rock bottom and they come up with a way to push it lower. This is impossible.

[aok88]

Yet, some thin answer site is ranking long tail across the board and on totally unrelated searches.

Somehow they appear to be re-directing even my low competition traffic (as if we're not worthy to even received that). AWSTATS shows me ranking on thousands of key phrases, but why is that traffic never getting here? Just too weird.

Same thing for a site of ours, almost exactly. The last handful of days has had horrible conversions, but no discernible difference in visits. Rankings are good and look like we ought to be having lots of conversions. Strange.

[kansascityseo]

I am seeing Penguin like activity right now, starting about 10pm central time, across a wide variety of search terms. Anyone else?

[louieramos]

I am seeing the same search result activity as well in Australia. Here are my findings

1. Previously penguin penalized sites showing up in the search results
2. But the search result batasets looks like 3-4 months old (similar results from 3 months ago but with the penalized sites)

Same thing happened mid Aug this year, which probably was a penguin test.. but today, maybe this is the real thing? lets wait and see