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Google Trends - how accurate is it? Part 2

         

Whitey

10:48 am on Apr 11, 2008 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



Last year I raised a concern about Google Trends accuracy for those using it as a reliable tool : [webmasterworld.com...]

8 months or so later I went back in to compare the trend on a No1 position we've held for the last 6 months and compared trends taken from our log statistics to the Google Trend.

The Google Trend graphically indicates a sharp fall from January through to the end of March. But our log files show relative consistency. On the basis of this, i don't even find it indicative.

Anyone else ?

trinorthlighting

4:29 pm on Apr 11, 2008 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Are you pulling your log files and looking at Google queries only? Or are your log files dumping in MSN and Yahoo queries?

Whitey

9:14 pm on Apr 11, 2008 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



These results are seperated Google from Yahoo and MSN . Yahoo and MSN account for little more than 5% of our SE traffic.

trinorthlighting

1:04 pm on Apr 14, 2008 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



I do notice differences in trends versus the adwords keyword tools.

The adwords tools look like they are up to date.

[adwords.google.com...]

Miamacs

2:54 pm on Apr 14, 2008 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



AdWords shows you logarithmic stuff... that search volume bar is nowhere near linear, plus the volume it represents is just as dynamically 'interpreted' as the graph in Trends. Meaning it's relative to the rest of the keywords on your list.

Mind you Trends is linear, it just clips off stuff at the bottom ( mainly for commercial phrases ). The difference between keywords on the graph is logarithmic however.

...

my advice is use as many tools as you can, and do cross-examinations. a single tool can be wrong... two tools can still be wrong, but 4 to 5 independent tools will give you an idea at least.

Other issues include that Trends will show you the volumes for all queries made that included the set words, phrase. Using quotes will make it at least somewhere between phrase and exact match, but it's unlikely that you'd be able to get stats for a single, stand-alone phrase.

So when more and more people are satisfied with the results their first, generic search shows them...

...let's say, 'blue widget'

...they are less and less likely go into refining searches, right ?

'blue widget mycity'
'blue widhet review' ...etc.

Meaning exactly what you see: lower volumes showing in Trends and higher trtaffic volume coming from the top tier keywords. ( fewer times the phrase was used in searches... but more and more people coming from Google )

just one of the possibilities though.

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