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My theory about a spike / megaflux on Jan 14

     

itloc

12:29 pm on Jan 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Hi

Yesterday there has been a big change in our traffic for about 5 hours. Numerous other webmasters mentioned the same - and some might be very frustrated now because all reverted back to the current search results.

Personally, I have never seen such a big movement in such a short amount of time.

This early morning I was very frustrated. My first thought has been: hey, they tried it again - it didn't worked. Google is broken, yadda yadda .. all the stuff a webmaster with thousands of supplemental pages thinks.

But then, after the first coffe I started thinking again. What could be the reason for such a large movement? Why in the world would a search engine change the entire results (and that must have been millions of pages) for such a short amount of time?

I came up with two possibilities:

1. Something went wrong.

Whatever happened, after 5 hours it turned out to be "no good" and somebody (or some routine) took the decision to take the newest brew offline.

2. It was planned for a reason.

This was a planned shakeup because the worlds number one search engine would not move millions of pages unintentional.

What i have found out so far - most of the traffic that came in yesterday has been traffic for the keywords my website ranked before december 15/16. Basically I had the same traffic as I had 1 month ago. Could it be that old data jumped back into the index for 5 hours? Millions of pages? Just like that? An old datacenter demanded some exposure?

Then it striked me - what if that megaflux (or however you want to call it) was fully intentional? What could Google gain from that?

Since a long time I believe that Google is collecting much more Data then just our websites html. Identifying matching websites for certain search phrases demands user feedback. Deep tracking. Basically they will use Adsense, Analytics and Google Toolbar for that (and more probably). If you can't trust what some webmasters write on their pages - use other large scale data that can't be manipulated.

So, they know what kind of traffic I do have on my website that shows adsense and uses analytics. They know from where I do get my traffic, when I get it and how I get it.

Now to my conclusion: if Google is provoking a complete shift of their results for a limited amount of time - they are able to identify pages that are affected by that. They get large scale data about the pages that rank under different circumstances. 1:1.

I say it was intentional, planned and they will use the collected data during the next few days or weeks.

Whether they will use it in the way I wish - that is another story.

What do you think?

itloc

ps. sorry for my crude english - im not a native speaker...

itloc

5:34 pm on Jan 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



let me clarify:

such a spike would allow google to find websites that have been affected by the last 4 weeks changes.

regards

itloc

davidgid

6:40 pm on Jan 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

5+ Year Member



Could be. I use to love google, but my opinion is slowly changing. Either way my jump in the serps nearly gave me a heart attack. I moved to number two on two different keywords. That jump was a jump of around 8 positions.

My take on it is they were just showing a snapshot using only the onsite optimization and backlink anchor text. They were not using the authority (pr) of the backlink in that snapshot.

mattg3

7:09 pm on Jan 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member




08 Jan 11922
09 Jan 25198
10 Jan 36277
11 Jan 24779
12 Jan 17398
13 Jan 37690
14 Jan 36054
15 Jan 12462

I have extreme fluctuations since the 9th. These are unique visitors.
Another server is completly stable although the same structure besides the language.

There seem to be two results sets that get switched and slowly seem to converge if I do site:www.example.com

This is a pre Google server linked since the early days (1997) and very well in neighbouring "competition" sites, it also does not have the broken geotargeting problems.

Oliver Henniges

10:55 pm on Jan 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Interesting idea, but I'm not sure I fully understood what you meant. Google could definitely analyse ranking-sets from different SERPs without showing these public. So you are aiming at user-reaction based on those different sets, right?

> They get large scale data about the pages that rank under different circumstances. 1:1.

Hopefully they will, mine did. For all the keywords I monitor regularly, my site was a rock in the ocean (not spot#1 for all kws!), while many other sites jumped up and down beside me.

Nevertheless, I'd speculate such a data-push is much too time- and resource- consuming for a mere experiment. Human resources in particular, because such massive data-shifts have to be monitored very carefully. So many things might happen, so many DCs must be served. Too much effort, there are much easier ways to shock us paranoids and monitor our turmoil;)

trinorthlighting

11:03 pm on Jan 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



There has also been a lot of maitenance going on with google. Adsense, adwords and I imagine even data centers as well. The flux could be to data center outages!

davidgid

11:34 pm on Jan 15, 2007 (gmt 0)

5+ Year Member



trinorthlighting said:
with google. Adsense, adwords and I imagine even data centers as well. The flux could be to data center outages!

It would sure be nice if they were a bit more transparent. Though, I guess that would tell us more then they want us to know.

steveb

1:01 am on Jan 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member steveb is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



This is the way it is going to be from now on with data refreshes.

Instead of making a monthly mess, Google makes one five days a week. For months this has been happening, pages get unpenalized, you get good traffic, and refresh or two later and they go back in the dumper. It happens every day now. Normally there are two indexes but yesterday the refresh just seemed to rollout slower.

skweb

2:19 am on Jan 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

5+ Year Member



For last couples of days, I have been unable to access Google Video either. For a few hours this afternoon, even Google was inaccessibe in New England. Does that matter?

eljefe3

4:03 am on Jan 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Administrator 10+ Year Member



Seems to be at least two different indexes involved. One with the penalty the other without. I have looked at my stats programs and see many queries where I am in the top 10 ( just as before the December dive) on the good days which maybe is showing the old, non penalty index, and when I check the SERP's later, my site is no where to be seen. Definitely at least two indexes involved.

itloc

4:51 am on Jan 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



eljefe3

Backup that. I am able to check my referrals in realtime - and sometimes I do execute the exact same query that brought me a visitor in by myself. Mostly I am not able to see my website appearing in the results. Ergo - another index.

I am seeing this kind of stuff since several weeks.

Frustrating...

itloc

itloc

5:04 am on Jan 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



And BTW:

If we could get at least 2 or 3 lines of explanation from google how long this current situation will last - and whats going on ... that would be nice.

Just to add that: In my industry there are some single sites ruling all over. Rewrite your urls, include widget names in there and you are KING.

www.thewidgetsite.com/colored/blue/thewidgetthathasafunkynamewithlootsofkeywords.html <- is THAT cool?

One of these bimbo sites has just been rewarded with a nice PR8. Good to have internal sites that aren't supplemental - these links do count.

What do I have to do now? Should I step down to keywords in urls? no way. Before I am lowering myself to that I will build my own search engine.

It's frustrating. The worst thing that ever happened to my main website since 1998.

itloc

wanderingmind

5:35 am on Jan 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



As for me, the site on which I think I have fixed all possible duplicate content issues, and the site which never had any such issues remained where they were. The one site on which I know there are duplicate content issues (same descriptions, long list of related articles on many pages) shot up, and then vanished after 24 hours.

Probably they turned down their dup content filter for a while for whatever reason, then turned it back up again.

If I had fixed all my dup issues probably the site may have stayed up there after a day.

webstuck

2:52 pm on Jan 16, 2007 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



I don't think it was duplicate content that was turned down as our pages that shot up are 100% original, mostly pages that are kind of "heads" of different sections.

One page shot all the way up to the number one spot, the highest it has ever been as it was previously 3 prior to September 30th, 6-7 until December, and now page 4-5 since.

I have no idea why these pages shot up and then back down, but the only thing I can think of is either affiliate links, page content (keywords) or backlinks.

wanderingmind

12:18 pm on Jan 17, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Could be. But then 'duplicate content' does not mean Duplicate Content, as has been discussed several times in WW

AlexK

12:50 pm on Jan 17, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Hmm. I only wish that it *had* been down-then-up-again.

My lonely little site is 53% down on Monday 15 Jan cf the previous Monday's figures, and has stayed down Tuesday. No changes my end, of course. Just the Google gods (I think that they have been reading too much Greek literature - the Greeks always complained about their god's capriciousness).

davidgid

4:31 am on Jan 18, 2007 (gmt 0)

5+ Year Member



Looks like the megaflux is taking place again. Are you all seeing it like I am?

madmatt69

4:42 am on Jan 18, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



I'm seeing it today since this afternoon (PST) for the first time.

I had some dupe content issues in december when my site took a nosedive like many other people, but I fixed it and since end of december traffic has been great (returned to normal and then some). Now today they must have switched back to that old index. Not sure why..Hoping it doesn't last. All my dupe issues are gone so that shouldn't be a factor in any new data, which makes me think they're using the month old stuff.

itloc

9:03 am on Jan 18, 2007 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Can't confirm it from my side - there is no big movement currently (for me).

regards

itloc

davidgid

2:38 pm on Jan 18, 2007 (gmt 0)

5+ Year Member



I'm in the South East US, and am seeing it. One of my keyterms has so far stuck at SERP 2, but the real competitive KW I have been working on has gone back an forth between SERP 102 and 180ish in the last 12 hours.

madmatt69

4:54 pm on Jan 18, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Definitely hitting me again this morning.

What is wrong over at google? Adsense was down, sitemaps was down, and now using all this old data and crap. I can't figure it out for the life of me.

trinorthlighting

5:03 pm on Jan 18, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



Keep in mind, if google has data centers in the midwest, they might not be running due to the recent ice storm there.

Bewenched

1:57 am on Jan 20, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 5+ Year Member



I just noticed that the majority of our internal linking doesn't appear in the serps right now.

Our products all have a link back to their main manufacturer page. These links are not showing up with the link: command.

These are pages that have been around for years as well as the links to them. They are all unique and the link to the manufacturer is simply so the customer can get more information about the product line without having the same copy on every product which would be considered duplicate.

Anyone else seeing this?

almir

3:06 am on Jan 20, 2007 (gmt 0)

5+ Year Member



Two of my sites are deindexed - from 4500 pages to 260, and from 8500 to 360

I am starting to loose all hope.

I am waiting more than 3 weeks for things to come back to normal, but its becoming even worst each day

petehall

3:13 am on Jan 20, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Reduce the number of pages you have and increase the quality of each page.

As the internet grows this will become more of a problem.

davidgid

12:50 am on Jan 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

5+ Year Member



Bewenched

We lost all our backlinks from manufactures on the last backlink update.

gehrlekrona

7:08 pm on Jan 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

5+ Year Member



Interesting note:
I have been reading MC's blog now and then and everytime he says he is going on a vacation or to some SEO conventions and stuff, HUGE changes is going to come.
Wonder why? Maybe he is not going anywhere at all. Maybe he is checking all the outcry from people and/or the results of the change. Working 24/7 during the update/downgrade?

ALbino

7:36 pm on Jan 21, 2007 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Our spike was on the 15th and not the 14th. Go figure.

AlexK

2:25 pm on Jan 29, 2007 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



As reported previously [webmasterworld.com] for my site:
  • 15 January 2007 : overnight 68% fall in Google referrals
(The above is measured via G-Analytics, and is for the period 15-27 Jan cf 02-14 Jan)

Now:

  • 28 January 2007 : overnight rise in Google referrals, back almost to previous values.

Of course, webmasters have known for a long time that, with Google, the inmates are in charge of the asylum, but this kind of behaviour still comes as a shock every time that it happens.

itloc

3:36 pm on Jan 29, 2007 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



you mean your site is back as it was before?

regards
itloc

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