Lycos' Lesson for Google Investors

[nate_king1]

Becareful and don't get caught in the hype. Here is what happened to Lycos.
[fool.com ]

[hunderdown]

Interesting, but there are also some signficant differences with the Google IPO. For one thing, Lycos being valued at 12.5 billion a few years ago was an absurdly inflated price. Google's valuation may be high, but it's not so stratospheric.

[pageoneresults]

Google's valuation may be high, but it's not so stratospheric.

Maybe not at the moment. As soon as another player comes along and threatens Google's market share, there will be some issues. Search is a highly volatile area. I for one will stay away from any stock related to search. The market is too unstable to invest the type of money required for a respectable return. It is definitely a short term investment. ;)

[nate_king1]

I think that Googles' values is very inflated, and the actual price is somewhere around $3-10 Billion. Not $35 Billion.

[loanuniverse]

I would be interested in seeing someone do a valuation of Google using some sort of recognized method "discounted cash flow" that will show a valuation of just $3,000MM.

Really? This company actually makes a lot of money.

/maybe off base, but $3,000MM seems to harsh.

[alain_bonaf]

>For one thing, Lycos being valued at 12.5 billion a few years ago was an absurdly inflated price. Google's valuation may be high, but it's not so stratospheric.

"absurdly inflated price" AFTER HINDSIGHT but at that time I can tell you that people would call you with name if you tell to them that the Bubble was a scam. That's why I don't care about the stupid crowd any more as I have warned them (I have proof on newsgroup my message are still there) whereas when I told them to buy after march 1999 they feel too shy to do so after the 1998 crash thinking it was the end of the world and that Soros was shorting :D.

Oh I forgot my business is now more in futures trading (you know that kind of stuff with 20 times leverage :D) than in software engineering in fact that's why I can tell you so :). I can even tell you this: I once made a diner with a french financial journalist who told me that during the bubble introducers brokers were in fact colliding to pump up the stock and then dump them all at once the day they decided to do so. Of course it's forbidden but who can prove that? He only knows because he had a friend who worked in one of these brokerage firms.

Personally I really don't care about Google's IPO, I prefer futures trading - tt's kind of IPO everyday but much predictable. The market is at a turning point : under 10500 it's technically very vulnerable to return back to the bottom. Now some people want to short but be carefull if you have no experience: it is shorters that fuel rallies when they are out of margin call that's why you have "surprising" movement. It's only surprising for the mass public, not for the initiates.

[Gluck999]

Anyone who bids on this stock is insane.
$100 a share is 200 times earnings.
The people who complain that the brokers supporting the issue are keeping all but "accredited investors" out should count their lucky stars.
This IPO is like a giant festering zit left over from the Dot Com binge. Do the math, don't think about Yahoo, that is way over priced too...stay away...and laugh at the fools who will be crying in the end.

This stock is barely worth $10