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Adsense Earnings Pattern. Anybody seeing this?

starts out good, gets worse during day

         

fearlessrick

1:21 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

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OK, I confess. I check my stats about 12-15 times a day.

One thing I have noticed is that lately, the morning (I am in the Eastern US time zone) is very good. CTR and eCPM usually at the highest levels of the day. By 2-3 pm, however, things really begin to slow down and continue to do so until late at night.

This is somewhat of an annoyance because I always have high hopes in the morning, only to see them dashed by day's end.

What really astounds me is how my CTR can be 4-5% with eCPM at $6-10 at 9:00 am, but by 10 pm CTR is 2.5% and eCPM is $2-3.

Are people more inclined to click on ads in the morning? Are the stats delayed, so I am getting a click dump in the AM? Are daily ad budgets depleted by 6-8 pm and this causes the .03 to .05 clicks?

Anybody noticing this pattern or am I just one of the lucky ones? ;-)

On a somewhat related note, I urge everyone to read this thread in the AdWords section:
[webmasterworld.com...]

In it, you'll discover that - according to AWA (on page 3, I believe) - Google employees are actually encouraged to have their own AdWords accounts, in direct competition with AdWords customers.

Some people on the thread are incredulous and find it a huge conflict of interest. My question - still unanswered - is whether Google employees are encouraged to have AdSense accounts. My thinking is that they are, based on the AdWords revelations.

ASA, care to respond?

jema

1:31 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



I certainly see a regular fall throughout the day earnings wise. But we are poles apart I don't even see 10% of your CTR :( With your CTR I'd be rich :D

appi2

1:32 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Check your weblogs to see when people visit.
Different topics/ subjects are going to attract different users at different times.
Office staff or home users, young or old.

ken_b

1:35 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



I see days like you describe in my stats. But I see just as many that are the other way around, start low and end high.

I just assume it's the result of Google not updating all the data at the same time.

fearlessrick

2:26 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

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I guess I should have pointed out that traffic is usually at its peak from around noon until 8-9 pm.

Here's a sample of what I'm talking about, from yesterday. Just after 4 pm, traffic was roughly half of the full day total. Clicks were 2/3 of the full day total, but earnings were 3/4 of the full day total.

And it's doing the same thing again today. Basically, if CTR and eCPM remained even CLOSE to what they are in the AM, I would more than double what I'm currently earning.

I've had my doubts and suspicions about the Google algo and the veracity of results. I think there is a certain part of that algo that automatically checks earnings and keeps them in a range.

Also could have something to do with sitemaps. I have been adding pages at a steady pace, but have not updated my sitemap.

Anyhow, as usual, I think I'm getting shorted and I'll probably keep thinking that until Google becomes more transparent about some of their operations (which is likely to be never).

Well, here we go again. I guess I should curb my enthusiasm until later in the evening.

hunderdown

2:43 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)



fearlessrick, I see some real differences in visitors who come to my site while surfing at work, and those who come later in the day while surfing at home. The work-surfers are on more of a mission. I think you're seeing something similar--you can't just look at bulk numbers and say that half the day's traffic should be half the day's earnings. The behavior of first half visitors can be different from the behavior of second half visitors....

creepychris

2:46 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



My range isn't as varied as yours but I experience similar patterns as you. One explanation could be that daily budgets get used up early in the day which causes all bids to drop and fewer relevant ads to be displayed as the day goes on.

caran1

2:52 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



I see the same pattern, I think the high value clicks are credited only after further checking at the start of the next day

alika

2:59 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

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I have the same pattern but I just attribute it to metrics not updating simultaneously. Before, I noticed that if my eCPM is high at the start of the day, then my earnings will be on the high side as well. But if the eCPM is low, I used to fidget and think that maybe the articles I feature on my homepage are not bringing in the dough so I change them. But not anymore; sometimes eCPM starts very low but will surprise me at the end of the day with very high earnings.

My typical users are working US folks so I can't say that they all visited and clicked the best ads while I am sleeping :o). And the advertisers I see are mostly US based advertisers so I dunno if they are fidgeting with their budgets at 3 am EST.

So I just attribute it to differences in updating, and on days when I can't explain the metrics, just pure good or bad luck.

OptiRex

3:15 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)



fearlessrick

I see exactly the same as yourself however I have put this down to the "smart pricing", or whatever it is called, in that it does not pay me as much for an ad clicked in say Indonesia and China.

My Indian and Middle East clicks seem to be relatively average with Europe and the USA paying the most.

How right or wrong I am I have no idea however my stats have shown exactly the same forever and a day like this which is a least a consistency if nothing else!

andrea99

3:26 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)



I have to chime in with a ditto on the pattern. Sometimes the early morning figures are so absurdly high that it MUST be an algo quirk and simply cannot be explained by visitor behavior though the "more driven" early morning surfer does sound plausible.

Most of my clicks are shopping clicks, not info.

oddsod

3:45 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

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I check my stats about 12-15 times a day.

Therein lies the problem. Not in the frequent checking - it's your account, you can check as much as you want - but in the expectation that generally accompanies frequent checking.

Google makes no promises to keep stats up to date, to update all the columns at the same time, or even to credit your account with all clicks and earnings in the same week that you earned them.

jomaxx

3:52 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



This is a real pattern that I see every single day. I fully expect my CPM to drop by about 25% between now (9 AM Pacific time) and close of day. It's mainly the CPC that's affected; CTR seems to be not significantly different. This started for me, or at least became much more noticeable, when Google re-jigged their interface in early August(?).

It could be related to higher ad rates in Europe, although the midnight-to-eight shift is also a high period for traffic all across Asia as well, so if anything I would have thought income might be lower. I don't think this is the answer, but I guess it's testable if you want to go to the trouble of setting up channels for geotargeting.

bnhall

4:22 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



I always thought it was a stats updating discrepancy.

oddsod

4:45 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



This is a real pattern that I see every single day.

Oh, don't say that, don't say that! If, one day things start up slow we'll have threads saying it's slow today.

OTOH, we already have those threads so please ignore this post :)

ddogg

5:09 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



My guess is that impressions don't fully catch up until the end of the day. My CPM is always much higher in the morning than by the end of the day. The clicks and earning stats are accurate but I think the impressions are behind, making the CTR and CPM look higher than it actually is.

novice

5:21 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



It can also be that clicks are carried over to the next morning, while impression are posted the night before. This will make your CTR and eCPM appear higher.

When I check my stats in the morning I find my eCPM is 4 times the amount is is at the end of the day.

Also sometimes I find more clicks than impressions on channels in the morning, but never more clicks than impressions in the evening.

fearlessrick

5:54 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



Thanks for all the entertaining answers, people. I really appreciate it.

My answer is that clicks are cheaper in California ;-( which really doesn't make any sense.

Really, it's probably a stats updating thing more than anyone else, since more than a few posters see the same thing.

uhwebs

5:58 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member




Same here-- but my CTR stays consistent.
It seems that early in the day ppc is high, and it drops off toward the end. Very strange.

hyperkik

6:20 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



I think that sometimes it is the result of payment adjustments from the prior day.

However, I also think that Google also adjusts the ads it serves to particular sites through the course of a day, in part based upon the site's performance earlier in the day.

incrediBILL

7:04 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

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This has been my 'pattern' of AdSense for a long time now.

You would think when you hit $180 by noon PST you're in for a $300 day right?

Oh no, it starts dwindling slowly into oblivion and you're lucky if you end the day with $250.

21_blue

7:58 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



IncrediBILL wrote:
>You would think when you hit $180 by noon PST
>you're in for a $300 day right?

We are stats freaks to some extent, and have been analysing the time-of-day trend for a while now.

Our earnings half-way point in the day is, on average, around 8:30am PST (4:30pm in proper money). This is because the bulk of our income comes from UK business visitors, though US and Australian visitors also make a contribution.

The half way point can change in response to a few factors:

* there is a fluctuation day by day, as you would expect with natural statistical variation and stop-start Google reporting

* changes in exchange rates can shift the average half way point forwards or backwards, as the relative values of the US and UK markets shift

* weekend patterns are different. Eg: it is very quiet over Saturday night/Sunday morning, but picks up when Australia business time kicks in later on Sunday

* Monday mornings in the UK have lower activity than most other days. On the other hand, Friday mornings are much higher.

* At lunchtime in the UK, things slow down a fair bit.

Another observation is that page views increase throughout the day, but click through rates decline. We suspect that some US visitors look at the UK spelling and punctuation on our site, think they are "errors", and so exit the site. This view is supported by the occasional emails we get pointing out the poor quality of some aspects of our site (when you get into the detail, "poor quality" is simply the difference in UK/US English).

OptiRex

8:03 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)



We suspect that some US visitors look at the UK spelling and punctuation on our site, think they are "errors", and so exit the site. This view is supported by the occasional emails we get pointing out the poor quality of some aspects of our site (when you get into the detail, "poor quality" is simply the difference in UK/US English).

You're jesting?

Americans writing to you about your standard of English and spellings? Is it that bad? :-))

I've never had that one I must admit but I did have someone who wrote complaining about the web site colours!

21_blue

8:13 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



One correspondent emailed pointing out that our site was so appalling that there were 52 errors on one page alone. I thanked her for the email, and asked her to list the errors, which she kindly did.

When I looked at her list, there were actually 2 typos in the small print (a footnote copyright statement that we hadn't reviewed when publishing the page). The other 50 were spelling or punctuation differences - mostly S vs Z, -OR vs -OUR, or putting full stops inside or outside quotation marks.

I wrote back explaining the difference between UK and US English, and the correspondent replied with surprise. She hadn't realised (sorry, realized) that there was a difference.

We have thought about using cloaking techniques to present UK English in the UK and US English in the US. However, we think we might run foul of the search engines using such techniques, so have avoided them.

incrediBILL

8:30 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



We have thought about using cloaking techniques to present UK English in the UK and US English in the US. However, we think we might run foul of the search engines using such techniques, so have avoided them.

That's not what I would consider cloaking at all -
That's localisation or 'localization' for us Americans ;)

Cloaking is when you show the search engine something entirely different than you show the visitor and I don't think localisation for spelling adjustments would be considered deceptive at all.

For what it's worth, most Americans can't spell their own name let alone figure out you have typos as our educational system is in a serious state of decline.

I weep for the future.

21_blue

9:17 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



IncrediBILL wrote:
>That's not what I would consider cloaking at all

Respected member though you are, what we are concerned about is what the search engines define as cloaking. Or, rather, what they might define as cloaking in the future.

If there is a risk-free way of presenting different content to US and UK users, I'd be interested in it (NB: we have a lot of content, but are technically in the dark ages, using only html pages and not these new-fangled cgi scripts or php or suchlike - perhaps I should have chosen the member name of "luddite"? :-)).

I should emphasise the expression "risk free". Because our focus is on content, we will only use future-proof techniques. With anything that could be construed as cloaking, we would need to be sure that the likes of Google won't at some point in the future decide to classify the technique as worthy of penalisation (or penalization or pea null I say shun).

Nikke

9:40 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



You could always put your localised content in a /US/ version of the site and ban all robots from it using robots.txt...

Clicked submit too early

Back on topic, you need to take into account that some advertisers accounts might actually run low towards the evening, lowering the price per click.

21_blue

10:18 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Nikke wrote:
>You could always put your localised content in a /US/
>version of the site and ban all robots from it using
>robots.txt..

Interesting idea. Though, from an SEO point of view it might still have a negative impact - diluting the impact of incoming links (splitting them between similar pages). And I'd still be concerned about penalisation due to duplication.

>Back on topic, you need to take into account that
>some advertisers accounts might actually run low
>towards the evening, lowering the price per click

Good point. Though our stats show a decline in CTR, ostensibly unaffected by CPC, it might still be a corollary of the trend you describe: as advertisers run low, there is less choice, and perhaps the 'better ads' become less available. Hence a lower CTR.

incrediBILL

10:51 pm on Sep 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



what we are concerned about is what the search engines define as cloaking

FWIW, I don't think color vs colour is what the search engines call cloaking. Traditionally cloaking is one keyword jammed page fed to a search engine designed to raise the page in the SERPS compared to what is shown to the visitors of your site. The real issue is would you want your serps to be based on "color" or "colour" for your market and show the search engine that language version of the page.

I have content filters in my site and knock out certain words in certain context, I don't really consider it cloaking at all. Some of it is "family friendly" filtering, other words are filtered out after the fact to stop Google from running PSAs based on the current set of blocking words.

It's an ever evolving landscape and I find it best to keep all my content and display only what currently meets the guidelines of the Google mediabot.

Is it cloaking?

I don't think so as I show the search engine and visitor the same filtered page.

jomaxx

3:15 pm on Sep 15, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



This is a real pattern that I see every single day. I fully expect my CPM to drop by about 25% between now (9 AM Pacific time) and close of day.

FWIW, I was almost dead on with my prediction. My CPM declined 27% through the last 2/3 of the day.

Today my CPM has started out even higher than yesterday; I love seeing the number, but it'll almost certainly decline by 40% by the end of the day, back to the regular level. I noticed that the CTR on both my channels is slightly higher than usual, but the main difference is the much-higher-than average CPC.

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