Adsense earnings to drop...

starting on the 1st of November ...?

[Macro]

AOL will use Adword ads instead of Overture's:
[webmasterworld.com...] which links to this news article [reuters.com].

Apparently from Nov 1.

Do we Adsense publishers see AOL as big competition? Will a lot of the lucrative ads go to AOL? Will there be a sudden drop in earnings on Nov 1st?

Or is this topic not worth this thread? :)

[shorebreak]

Why would AOL Europe going from Overture to Google result in a *drop* in AdSense earnings? I don't get it.

[ken_b]

If AOL sucks up the available inventory in a given category, I suppose it could affect the earnings of other publishers.

Time will tell and it may not affect all categories equally, if at all.

[alika]

The fear is that the high paying ads will first be shown at AOL -- leaving the smaller publishers the lower paying keywords. It's a coveted partnership agreement, and you never know what sweet carrot baits G will use to entice AOL to go with them, not their competitor.

[novice]

According to this article [reuters.com...] Google expects to increase its advertiser base from 280,000 to 650,000 in the next few years.

That should help compensate for what AOL may take.

[Macro]

>> Google expects to increase its advertiser base from 280,000 to 650,000 ....

Yes, by 2008. Which is a long way off. Unless they take it to 600,000 by the end of this year and then proceed slowly after that :)

[patski]

I just checked the Overture page, you need traffic of 2M to qualify.... Is that unique visitors or page views?

I would like to be an Overture publisher, I'll bet that's Lucrative.....

[alika]

The 2M I see on Overture is for Customized Overture Partnerships and they want companies that generate more than two million Web SEARCHES monthly.

If talking of pageviews, their minimum is 30 million.

[freeflight2]

If talking of pageviews, their minimum is 30 million.

They might accept you if you have less than that and if you are in a 'lucrative' area - but then they require you to sign a long term exclusive contract (per site). Does anybody know how OV's effective payouts compare to G's adsense? sticky me

[creepychris]

Actually, in a perfect world (and I am not claiming it is!) the adsense revenue should not drop too much at all since AOL dropping out of overture means that overture's supply (of ad inventory) will decrease, which in turn means the price of overture's bids will go up, which should drive overtures customers towards Google. Especially, since Adwords bids will be going down with the increased supply in inventory. If Overture and Adwords were perfect substitutes the price would not drop at all and bids in both should be the same for similar keywords (but the bids are not the same so we know Adwords and Overture are not perfect substitutes).

The total supply of cpc text ad space is remaining constant. However, since there is some rigidness to the system (i.e. time is needed for ad buyers to switch over and prices to adjust). There should be an initial plummet followed by an upward adjustment to nearly the same level that it was at.

Do I believe this? Partially yes. Because when I bid on terms, I can never get enough traffic from either adwords or overture.

[surfer67]

Well, I just did a search on search.aol.com, and it appears that they're already running google adsense ads.

Surfer

[hooloovoo22]

well...here's another view.

Maybe now advertisers who chose to only advertise on google will open themselves up to the contextual network and open doors instead of close them.

[hooloovoo22]

well...here's another view.

Maybe now advertisers who chose to only advertise on google will open themselves up to the contextual network and open doors instead of close them.

[darkmage]

It's always hard to tell with these things. However I think multiple ad units - combined with allowing bloggers to show adsense - had probably more of an impact than AOL search ever will.

[Macro]

>> Maybe now advertisers who chose to only advertise on google will open themselves up to the contextual network

That's a good point. But AOL is big enough for Google to split the contextual network into "general" (you and I) and contextual network AOL.

>> multiple ad units - combined with allowing bloggers to show adsense - had probably more of an impact than AOL search ever will.

I hope you are right, and you quite probably are.

>> Actually, in a perfect world
Hey, it's a perfect world here. Google's just approved another big cheque :)

[04screamer]

Has anyone seen any affects from this? I noticed a severe increase in the number of PSA's (or alternate ads) almost immediately the first day of November, and I haven't been able to link it with anything else.