Can you estimate EPC from CPC with "Traffic Estimator" tool?

[john5000]

Hello... first post here at WebmasterWorld!

So I'm thinking of starting a blog on a topic that I'm very much interested in, and which I've discovered has a lot of very highly priced keywords according to the google "Traffic Estimator" tool:
[adwords.google.com...]

Let's say a keyword/phrase has an average CPC of $8.00 - $12.00, and also has many pages worth of sponsor listings in the SERPs. If I have a webpage that targets that keyword and displays adsense ads for that keyword, what would be the average earnings per click for me?

Btw, I don't even have an adsense account yet, but I've been reading and absorbing all I can about adsense for the past few weeks... in addition to affiliate programs/blogads/etc.

I guess some things to consider when estimating EPC are publisher percentatge (I've read figures ranging from 20% to 75%), smart pricing, how many ads per page (not exactly sure how this factors in), and also the possibility that bids are lower for ads on the content network than for the search pages (I'm assuming the CPCs given by the Traffic Estimator are for the search page ads). And also geography... I'm in US. I'm sure there are many other factors...

Any insights would be great. Thanks!

(and please forgive/correct me if my terminology ain't quite right as I'm still trying to learn this stuff =)

[Paris]

Don't fall in love with the estimate tool. Keep in mind that it's for AdWords advertisers and shows what the top three bidders are paying in Google's search network. High bidders in search may not participate in the AdSense content network (or bid much less if they do).

Google does pay a generous cut (the average is in the 67% to 68% range for all of its publishers, with a bit more than that for the top dogs and a bite less for us smaller fry), but because a lot of the ads on your site will be MFAs that go penny fishing in the content network, that $8 to $12 for the top three bids into AdWords search may wind up closer to $0.10 to $0.30 per click for you in your blog.

It's a program that still runs circles around most of the competition, but just don't rely on the traffic estimator tool as a realistic target.

[john5000]

Thanks Paris, it's good to know publishers are getting a fair cut.

So is it possible to determine how pervasive MFAs are for a certain niche? For example, I checked a few websites running adsense in my niche, and none of the ads were for MFAs, in fact I recognized most of them as also being the top ads in search. Good sign, no?

I guess I really just need to start my site and test things out to find out the EPC.

Something I should have mentioned is that for my main keyword, there are up to 50 pages worth of search ads. So it seems this is a competetive area for bidders.

Any guesses as to potential EPC (for the keyword with $8-$12 avg CPC for top 3 search) based on what I've provided (competitive niche), and assuming MFAs are minimal (or are blocked successfully)?

Is $1 or $2 or more EPC possible here?

Thanks, John.

[Paris]

Is $1 or $2 or more EPC possible here?

It IS possible. And you will definitely get a few clicks in that range. It's just that, on average, a lot of nickel and dime clicks will bring your average down. That's before the possibility of "smart pricing" kicks in depending on the quality of traffic that you're sending to the advertisers.

Your best bet is to try it, of course. If your blog gets decent amount of traffic and it's not community-based (as in, you're getting a lot of new folks stopping by insteal of the same folks all the time) you will probably do better than you would with other forms of ads.

[Green_Grass]

Every Newbie is searching for 'High Paying keywords' and will be disappointed. Google just does not work this way. Better to set up a good knowledgeable website and slowly build up traffic and the EPC will rise slowly or fast depending upon conversions, quality of traffic etc .

Blogging may not be the best way to go..

Best of luck in your search.

[john5000]

Thanks again for the feedback Paris.

Green_Grass when you say "Blogging may not be the best way to go", can you, or anybody, please elaborate a little.

I can see 3 problems with blogging and adsense. First, blogs are not usually focused on lucrative niche topics. Second, they often involve lots of linking to other websites, which may reduce clicking on adsense links. And third, they often rely on repeat traffic more than new traffic.

I plan to account for each of these, but are there any other reasons why blogging may be at a disadvantage with adsense?

[jetteroheller]

It's also great to find out correct tranalations.

When I have several possibilities to translate from German to English, the words with no or very small traffic are maybe incorrect translations.

I had once an experience to have many top positions for an English page. A evaluation showed, that nearly all top 10 search results had been from Germans.

They all used the same wrong translation from a dictionary.