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Poll: Goog up or down? What will price be after auction

No discussion, just your guess

     
10:03 pm on Aug 12, 2004 (gmt 0)

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Three part poll/survey:

1. Will GOOG be up or down at the end of the first day of trading?
2. By how much?
3. What will be the opening price?

This poll is open for one day (obviously).

My guesses:

1. Down
2. 15%
3. $120

11:30 pm on Aug 12, 2004 (gmt 0)

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1. Up
2. 10%
3. $125

Several weeks later, it will begin a long swan-dive that bottoms out who knows where.

2:31 am on Aug 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

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1. Down
2. 4%
3. $104
2:54 am on Aug 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

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Up / 5% / 142
2:57 am on Aug 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

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Up / 10% / $154

Winning bids will actually be over the range given by Google.

/just trying to be different here

3:11 am on Aug 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

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1. Up
2. 1%
3. 110

A week later it'll be at 80

1:34 am on Aug 16, 2004 (gmt 0)

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It isn't trading yet so here goes:

1) Down (NO chance of up)
2) 10% (Nothing ever moves more without significant news)
3) $104 (low end of what they have been dribbling out to the public but there is a serious risk is will be undersold.)

1:03 pm on Aug 17, 2004 (gmt 0)

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Down
5-10%
98
1:39 pm on Aug 17, 2004 (gmt 0)

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1. Up
2. 8%
3. $105

I'll give a google invite to whoever comes closest with the closing price. Anyone else want to pony something up?

2:31 pm on Aug 17, 2004 (gmt 0)

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Blaze , guess most in this forum should have a gmail account by now ...

Anyway if not i will also give a gmail invite to the second closest guess!

2:33 pm on Aug 17, 2004 (gmt 0)

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down / 8% / 112
3:59 pm on Aug 17, 2004 (gmt 0)

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1. Up
2. 20%
3. $30
4:21 pm on Aug 17, 2004 (gmt 0)

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Down 10%, $82

..... Shane

4:58 pm on Aug 17, 2004 (gmt 0)

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Down

12%

$116

5:59 pm on Aug 17, 2004 (gmt 0)

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1) down
2) 5%
3) $140

* (this after halving the # of shares offered)

8:00 pm on Aug 17, 2004 (gmt 0)

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Down
5%
$92.00
8:30 pm on Aug 17, 2004 (gmt 0)

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Up
15%
$62
9:40 pm on Aug 17, 2004 (gmt 0)

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1) They will price it to make sure it goes UP
2) 20%
3) $80
10:28 pm on Aug 17, 2004 (gmt 0)

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Blaze , guess most in this forum should have a gmail account by now ...

No true :-( I don't have one ;-) .. send me the invite with no conditions and then I'll give you the answer LOL!

10:31 pm on Aug 17, 2004 (gmt 0)

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Does everyone have an orkut account? Because I don't have one of those.

I got gmail but they only allowed me one invite in a couple of months...

1:38 am on Aug 18, 2004 (gmt 0)

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  1. Down
  2. -27% / -$34
  3. $128 (opening trade) / $94 (closing trade 4pm)

I'm sensing deja vu here with the PALM ipo from several years back. It's a beautiful thing to see a short position go straight down 20+ points in a half hour. Rest assured that the syndicate will be heavily shorting against the green shoe.

12:41 pm on Aug 18, 2004 (gmt 0)

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From Drudge this morning....

In a sign that Google Inc.'s IPO isn't as popular as expected, the company lowered its estimated price range to between $85 and $95 per share, down from the earlier prediction of $108 and $135... Developing...

2:07 pm on Aug 18, 2004 (gmt 0)

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Unwritten rule of ebay or any other (American) option exercise is to wait till the last moment to gather all the information before placing bets.

Seems like prices will be much lower than they were hoping for. Investors have been burnt earlier and have become wiser.

My view of latest development my revised numbers are

down
-5%
$87

PS What happened to that S&P analyst asking people to bid at $110. Or many such Wall Street analysts who thought the fair price was $100 or more.

2:23 pm on Aug 18, 2004 (gmt 0)

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For fun, I think I'll stand at my previous close, but revise my opening:

1. Up
2. 19%
3. 95$

4:05 pm on Aug 18, 2004 (gmt 0)

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Revised:

1) Down
2) 10%
3) $90.00

If there is so little interest in the IPO, I imagine trading will be looking for buyers rather than sellers.

1:25 am on Aug 19, 2004 (gmt 0)

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1) Down
2) 8%
3) 89 opening and going perhaps as high as 91 and then going down .. expect it to close down by the day

Pricing at the LOW end of revised range seems to indicate that there is lack of interest!.

trstn

8:51 am on Aug 19, 2004 (gmt 0)

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Blaze , guess most in this forum should have a gmail account by now ...

No true :-( I don't have one ;-) .. send me the invite with no conditions and then I'll give you the answer LOL!

Indeed, i have no gmail either, but then i am on the new side of things here, lagging behind just a touch.

8:19 pm on Aug 19, 2004 (gmt 0)

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In my original message (#3) I wrote
1. Down
2. 4%
3. $104

Later I revised it to a different set of number. Why do I do well when I make decisions based on less info?

8:30 pm on Aug 19, 2004 (gmt 0)

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While I think jcoronella wasn't the closest, he was in my opinion the one with the best perception of what happened.

1) They will price it to make sure it goes UP
2) 20%
3) $80

I think they did indeed price it to make sure that it went up. And it did.

If someone was closer, no problem, but I'm not going to the trouble of figuring it out :)

 

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