Accuracy of forecast tool

[SlyOldDog]

I set up a website based on phenomenal forecast clickthroughs from the traffic estimator.

I get about 3% of what it predicts.

Overture also shows large numbers of searches for this term. How can it be so wrong?

[Brett_Tabke]

There is a certain threshold where it is pretty inaccurate. I find kw's that get less than 100 searches a day, are not accurate.

[eWhisper]

How can it be so wrong?

A. You're bidding on the same display domain name as someone else and your ad isn't showing.
B. Your ad isn't showing on content targeting or partner search sites yet.
C. Your CTR is lower than what Google predicted.
D. The estimator was just wrong.

I often vote for D.
I set up a campaign earlier this week where AdWords suggested 100 clicks a day (with an average CPC around $3.85), I'm seeing a little over 400 click/day (0.18 CPC) with a CTR of only 1.2% and the campaign isn't even on partner sites yet.