Two websites with exactly the same content

What is the future of them in 12 months?

[lucky]

Let`s assume you launch a site in January 2006 (widget.com) and do nothing about it in terms of seo in the months ahead.

And you launch the second site (example.com) in June 2006 and start working on it. You get natural links from good sites, add fresh content on a regular basis etc. etc. You prefer slow but healthy growth.

What do you think may happen in January 2007 and beyond in terms of serps? Which website does google (or yahoo and msn) prefer to rank higher?