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Google random shuffling theory

My results over the last few years point to this

         

rehabguy

11:05 pm on Dec 3, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



I'm one of the webmasters WHO HAS NOT MODIFIED MY WEB SITE in response to the past 6-8 serious google updates.

I've found my rankings all over the board, but almost always modulating between #1-2 to #100-#120 for key terms I monitor. Remember - I've changed nothing between google updates.

Ok - so here's my theory: Google randomly shuffles the SERPs from time to time to discourage manipulation.

Like a deck of cards, google takes results 25-30 and moves them up to 1-5 position, and take results 1-5 and move them to 11-15. There may be some exceptions (by industry) or this process may be even more complicated than I'm outlining here, but random shuffling only helps Google. See below.

Here's a breakdown explanation: (All approximations)

- Google has 14,000,000 SERP results for a particular key phrase.

- It performs a ranking analysis to identify the top .01% based on both on-page and off-page factors
(.01% is .0001 - the millionth decimal point... one in a million for those who slept through math like me)

- This leaves 1,400 pages in the top .01% - or 14 pages of results. (WHICH IS THE KEY - YOU ARE LIKELY TO FIND PRETTY GOOD RESULTS REGARDING YOUR SEARCH QUERY IN THIS TOP .01%)

- So Google then randomly shuffles the results on the top 1-200 results, since they are all most likely pretty good. (See all caps above)

What does this do?

1. Keeps one technique of SEO from being 100% effective

2. Confuses and frustrates the heck out of WebmasterWorld members who spend 50% of their waking hours trying to figure out why something works, then doesn't, then does, then doesn't again (aka: google updates) - therefore they quit trying to game the system eventually

3. Encourages webmasters to perform the 100% guaranteed way to be #1 for your term - bid top $$ for an ad.

Anybody seen the same thing?