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Brett, I'm guessing you were concerned about the Doubleclick slip for what it means for the Internet as a whole - but do you think it might also be a boon for SEO and other web marketing techniques?
I've been following the AMD vs Intel struggle for years, both build good products, but one spends a good deal more on brand recognition. In the past few months, everytime an announcement is made that should strenghten one stock against the other, the stocks do the opposite of what you would expect. My conclusion is that the analysists are way "behind the curve" and this is only one of many examples... Unfortunately, they hold significant sway over how the market perceives a company.
A lesson I learned years ago, "When you're not sure what's going on, follow the money." I've said it elsewhere, with VC money drying up for dotcoms, the extravagent spending we've seen in the past (including advertising) will dry up with it.
I agree with Marshall, it's a good time to be an SEO for those dotcoms that are going to move to a more realistic business plan.
I'm concerned about the downturn in advertising more from my own sites standpoint than from seo. I was expecting the 4th quarter to be excellent. Hopefully Nov will see an upturn. Sept was very good, but Oct has been so-so.
My point, admittedly poorly made, was that the boom in advertising was based on VC money and unrealistic business plans. When a dotcom begins to be managed on a P/L basis the advertising budget will be based on revenue, not speculative investment money, and less extravagent as a result. SEOs will benefit as dotcoms realize that there are other ways to generate the needed revenues besides throwing money into ads.
Don't confuse "more realistic business plan" and "Brick and Mortar biz." NO biz can spend more then it makes for very long and remain in business. A "more realistic business plan" to me is simply one based on the business's revenue instead of investment money.
>the dotcoms have been doing all the dotcom advertising
>is traditional web advertising going to take it on the chin?
Absolutely! If dotcoms been buyin' and dotcoms are dyin', who's gonna buy the ads?
Brett - FWIW, Sept was a slow month for affiliate sales as well, Oct looks better...
You might enjoy this Register article [theregister.co.uk]. It reenforces what I've already said, but much more colorfully. :)
Whether you're a Brick and Mortar or a dotcom, you have income and expenses, and hopefully a profit when all is said and done... And I welcome the common sense approach of the B+M crowd to the web in place of the glitzy, get rich quick crowd. I don't see them having a reluctance to advertise per se, more likely just a more conservative (reasonable biz plan) approach to "web promotion," which includes advertising.
Oh, you and I are in total agreement Dave... have been from the git-go, but you presented a different path to the conclusion; banners are going to go hurtin' for awhile.
>There are millions of little.....dotcoms that are producing steady income by being run on a sound business basis.
Unfortunately, they don't buy banners, or at least not through the likes of Doubleclick.
>There are only good things ahead for SEO Marshall. Who they gonna run to for help when the sales dry up? They come to us.
The larger ones, yes. I don't see the "smalls" as being particularly fertile ground for contract SEO work.
I also wonder how many of these affiliate web sites are producing income based on programs that are flawed. They may be representing a vendor that is selling at a loss (Amazon comes to mind here, but there are many) and ultimately will be forced to close shop, shutting off the affiliate's revenue stream a little upstream.
I see several domino effects happening here.
No doubt about this whole paragraph either, except, carefully chosen programs will survive. I have two that provide 70% of my income and both seem to be based on "realistic business plans." Hopefully, these will get me through but tough times are ahead for affiliates too. Gotta go work on my SEO site ;)
BTW, that devil's advocate costume just doesn't work with the southern drawl...