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Actual pop-ups don't have scroll-bars and so on but the fact you clicked something makes no difference - it will pop the pop-up. That's why my current software, and the software I used to use in the UK, had the option of suspending the popping, because some sites use them when you click on something..
No they wont. People have short term memories.
If they really like your page they'll book mark it. One of our stats shows that they bookmark pages within 30 seconds of visiting. Even a bookmark is not an assurance that the visitor will come back.
PopUpCop doesn't require you to hold CTRL. However, that's the only program I've used so I don't know about the others.
you NEVER want the visitor to leave your page
At least offer your visitors a special link giving them permission to use the restroom. :-)
Seriously, if I am doing my job, the most-clicked links will also have the highest conversion rates, so there are diminishing returns for people hanging around and clicking all my links, which becomes fairly unlikely with more than a handful of links.