Overture predictions for usage

What is wrong with my formula?

[ratherbeboating]

Hi,

I have a website optimized for a keyword that overture says had 137,000 requests in May. My site is listed on page 1 for Yahoo and page 1 for alltheweb for my keyword.

There has been one referral from a SE in several weeks of being on these search engines. (All my sites are less than a month old)

My thinking had been that if I could get on the first page of a search engine, that I should get a minimum of one percent of the search traffic for that keyword. So, I would have received some number of visitors much larger than the one visitor that I actually received.

Can anyone tell me where my assumptions are wrong?

[kaz]

This assumption "a keyword that overture says had 137,000 requests in May"

[ratherbeboating]

I tried the same keyword in "#*$!" and there it indicates that the keyword string was searched around 400 times in the last 90 days, or 133 per month.

Why would Overture and Wordtracker be so different? A difference of 1000x's.

Also, I checked a few words that I was fairly confident of having high volumes and wordtracker estimated "real estate" as having less than 5,000 searches a month.

That makes no sense either. Is there reliable information available on keywords?