traffic estimation question

[scorpion]

If a page receives 30 million uniques per month or about 1 million per day and there are 100 links on the page spread out roughly equally into 2 columns, can one estimate the order of magnitude of the number of monthly clicks for any 1 given link on the page, on average?

For example, there is >99% chance you will get at least 1 hit, and say <1% you will get all 30 million clicks. So what is a probabe order in between?

[cfx211]

Depends on both the usefulness of the link and its position on the page. Top left will probably do better than top right because people read that way, but the top links should do better than the botton links.

That would be assuming that your links were all equally attractive. Most links are probably not equal so you will have to figure out their popularity.

Why don't you try running all your links through unique redirects for a week and figure out the ratio? We do this all the time to measure our content each week and find it very useful.

[scorpion]

thanks, it's for advertising so I don't have any data. I'm just looking for the ballpark magnitude. I assume 10^3, just want to make sure I'm not off by more than 1 order.