Interesting question and I also wonder what the conventional wisdom is on this. I would guess a part of the equation depends on how receptive the general public will be to these 'new look domains', i.e. will they be well understood/trusted.
it will change nothing. rather raise the value of a dotcom anchor domain. .biz .info .mobi, lastly .eu.. what haven't the authorities expected of these tlds. nothing has gained acceptance, all have failed. dotcom is branded into visitors minds and the more years pass, the stronger the effect. users are lazy and conservative.
it's not for nothing, that the android virtual keyboard has a ".com"-key for web browsing.
I think that each time a new domain extension is offered that it is merely for new business... by the domain authorities. We don't need new domains and there are still endless vacancies available for every name meaning when you start hyphenating (which actually makes most names more legible and meaningful).
When there was only .com, .net and .org most operators secured these to cover their butt. But registering for all domains today is a joke, so don't let that joke be on you... get real. How can mySite.com be affected by a site named mySite.banana?
I agree. Based on my own experience I was excited to participate in the .asia auction as well as the other new TLDs since I had lost the chance to secure good .com domains. Unfortunately, I then ended up deleting most of them.
I think these new TLD's are all a hype and only newcomers (like me) would get excited to be able to purchase a good keyword since we passed and missed the good years of registering the 3 valuable .com, .net and .org's.
On the other hand, I do think some domains will be worth something and we will definitely read stories and articles later on about how example.NewTld was sold for a great amount etc...
I think there are too many domain experts and big companies that wouldn't give the small guys any chance for premium names.
Throughout the past couple years: I have purchased over 80 domains, 40 were a waste (and deleted later on), 30 were okay (and simply parked for now), 6 of them were pretty decent (still in use), 3 were amazing and finally only 1 is premium. But overall I'm happy with the experience and am happy to own several good and valuable names, especially the premium domain.
Who will make money? ICANN, the new gTLD registries that are better at marketing than the other registries, and a few domain registrars that will do their best to suck bucks from consumers who are susceptible to messaging.
Other than those predictions my best guess is that history is likely to repeat itself . . .mobi . . .biz . . .info >>> . .club . . .home . . .blah
There are so many domain extensions now it's getting ridiculous, over the past couple of years I have simply let go of more than 200 and I intend over the next year or so of letting another 100 or so more go, such as .tel, .mobi and .biz, and I have already begun to concentrate all our sites in a more efficient way and this is already proving to be better.
I just wish I had done this years ago but who was to really know all this was going to happen? There was speculation but to actually do this!
There is a global trend away from the non-core gTLDs towards .com and the local .ccTLDs. In many countries where there is a mature market, the local ccTLD has more registered domains than the numbers of .com domains registered in that country. I do a rough gTLD count by country of hoster table each month and these trends have been evident for a while now. Just on the Irish market alone, where the .ie domains are three times more expensive than .com domains, these are the market percentage breakdowns of the core TLDs (.ie/.com/.net/.org/.biz/.info/.eu):
The .eu figures are probably more accuate than Eurid's as they consider Irish registered and hosted .eu domains rather than cyberwarehousing operations using Irish front companies. The number of identified Irish .eu domains is approximately 10,051.
The com/cctld axis in the Irish market accounts for approximately 89.80% of the core TLD footprint. The same com/ccTLD axis exists in other countries and this is what the new gTLDs will be up against.
I think that much of what drives the new gTLDs is the greed that drove Domain Tasting. Indeed some of the players are the same. While there is a need for some of the new gTLDs, the reality is that many new gTLDs have their genesis in what was a period of artificial scarcity of domain names in .com and other TLDs. This was because domains were being tasted on an industrial scale and I consider the board of ICANN to have been complicit. The average would-be registrant didn't even get a chance of registering a domain in the normal drop process because the drop process itself was subverted. ICANN was shamed into introducing what was effectively a restocking fee in order to limit Domain Tasting. It worked. And then the registrars moved on to creating their own aftermarket auctions thereby subverting the drop process again for their own benefit. And now we have all these new gTLDs for which most people never asked and about which they couldn't care less. And that's the kicker. If people don't care about these new gTLDs, they will just go on registering their ccTLDs and .com at the same rates as before.
The advertising for some of these new gTLDs is heavy on using fear as a motivation: "register your name now before somebody else does". There's even a bit of a whiff of 2007 Domain Tasting off some of the strings. The seem to exist in a world without ccTLDs. Perhaps the US market is big enough to accommodate them all but many of them will fail to get traction and I think that's why some are moving to convert as many of the reservations as possible to registrations. For them, there will be no Landrush frenzy. However the fanboys, fangirls and new gTLD "experts" will all be saying how great things are... for a while. But there will be some successful new gTLDs and for every .tel there may be a .mobi or a .info.
Just to explain this "But there will be some successful new gTLDs and for every .tel there may be a .mobi or a .info. "
Many of these new TLDs will end up like .travel, .coop or .jobs or some repurposed ccTLD with less than 100K registrations. However there will be a few that will succeed. Some of these will get about a million registrations (the .mobi level). A few others might get around 6 million registrations (the .info level) after ten years. It really depends on the demand for the new gTLDs in the US market because many of the Domain Taster style strings are generics that have little meaning outside the English language market. And on the other side of the Atlantic, the Irish and UK market is highly ccTLD orientated. And in Australia, New Zealand and India (the other major English language markets), the ccTLDs are also important. Perhaps the .co ccTLD breakdown by country offers some indication of what will happen. The .co ccTLD is largely irrelevant as a global TLD and most of the its domains are parked on Godaddy's PPC landing page for undeveloped domains. The 1.5 million registrations is impressive in numerical terms but when you break it down on a country by country basis, it just isn't a significant player in most countries outside of Colombia. High value keyword domains were either held back by COInternet or sold to speculators to drive up the perceived value of the ccTLD. Unfortunately without usage and development, the ccTLD has found it hard to make any inroads into most markets. Sure there are a few developed .co websites but there are not enough to really make it a memorable TLD in the minds of the public. Even Overstock found that out the hard way.
There may be the equivalent (in registrations) of a .mobi or .info in the new gTLDs but it is still far from certain.
This is a North American perspective, but I think it's analogous to what happened when new telephone area codes were introduced. Having a "good" (easily recognizable, repeatable, etc) number in an old area code makes your business look established, so their value went up.
The same thing will happen with .com. cars.com looks better than findmotorvehicles.info, just like 212-444-9000 says a lot more about your business than 917-301-9824.