Why does "contextual data/info" matter when assessing sales data?
One example: As an otherwise uninformed buyer or seller, unless you are tracking what is going on in the domain parking PPC space you may not understand why prices/sales activity and bidding at auction is down during late 2007 through 2008. IF you know what is going on you may reach a different conclusion about the value of domains. IF you know that much of the "reported data" is domainer-to-domainer sales, and if you know that domainers make money by parking and their income is slumping (at the moment), then you might infer that any downward trend in sales prices is just a reflection of a certain sub-market (domainer to domainer sales) is taking a hiatus.
Also, if you know that a reported domain sale represents a domain moving from one person to a traffic aggregator or another domainer then you know that the likely value represents someone's idea of PPC value and that the price paid is likely a small percentage of what many would view as enduser value. It's a sale in the "liquidity market", stupid! :P
So, there's real value in knowing the context of domain sales. DNJournal provides a healthy dose of context.
NameBio, on the other hand, provides an easily searchable database of sales data. To extract the value of DNJournal's sales data you actually have the read the articles. So with NameBio you get at the data, easier, but you lose the context.
Also, I'm pretty well convinced that Ron doesn't report a sale and sales figures unless and until the sale is confirmed to his editorial satisfaction.
I spent 5 minutes on NameBio last night, pulled some domains from a market vertical that I'm somewhat familiar with, and within that time I found 2 reported sales that a quick check of Sedo (the reported sales venue) convinced me were sales that were never actually completed. The reported sales date conflicts with listing date for the same domains, domains that are still for sale at Sedo. In other words, if the sale was reported as December 2007 the Sedo listing shows the domain as being continuously listed since June 2007. That doesn't add up. The sale price itself didn't add up. (The reported prices don't reflect market action in my experience, so no wonder there wasn't a closed deal.)
So, what value do you place on either resource and how do you integrate that value into your practices?
Is data, without context, as valuable as data with context?
Can data without context do harm?
Can market values be skewed if you don't appreciate that the buyers were not endusers but traffic buyers?
Food for thought. Add a side dish if you will.
[edited by: Webwork at 3:07 pm (utc) on Sep. 16, 2008]
Is data, without context, as valuable as data with context?For long term trends and microtrends, it can be. Though it is the analysis that ultimately gives the data value. It is the difference between information and knowledge.
Regards...jmcc
domains that are still for sale at Sedo
You cannot assume that Sedo is accurate and up to date.
I was just playing with the valuation tool you mentioned in the other thread and two of the domains I tested were listed as being for sale and I know for a fact they're not. I have owned one of them for over a year, and I was involved in the purchase of the other, earlier this year.
In this case the domains are still pointed to Sedo, not just listed at Sedo, so I take that as an indication the sale didn't not go through.But did they change nameservers/websites in the time since the sale and then change back to Sedo?
Regards...jmcc
Are you surprised about Sedo "auction wins" that are reported but don't actually conclude with payment and transfer? I suspect your well aware of how often that has happened with Sedo, including the infamous "sale" of Pizza.com at Sedo auction for $2MM+.
The point of my original comment was that in about 5 minutes of checking I found 2 domains in the database that plainly had signs of being a "Sedo bust". If you follow the reports in the forums that has not been an uncommon experience with Sedo. OTOH, if I track Ron Jackson's statements accurately, he will only publicly report a domain sale price if the transaction has actually closed.
The point of my original comment was that in about 5 minutes of checking I found 2 domains in the database that plainly had signs of being a "Sedo bust". If you follow the reports in the forums that has not been an uncommon experience with Sedo. OTOH, if I track Ron Jackson's statements accurately, he will only publicly report a domain sale price if the transaction has actually closed.Raw data is a lot easier to deal with than verifying every sale. That's one of the flaws of sites that rely on data feeds. Of course the problem with manual verification of each sale is that it rarely scales well. Ron Jackson can only report on and verify a small set of the domains that are sold. Namebio and sites like it are trying to provide a more global view of sales with less manual verification of sales. The best thing would be to use more than one source for domain sales trends. In this respect, it is not an either/or situation.
Regards...jmcc
use more than one source for domain sales trends
Unfortunately, the "real data" - serious domains being sold to endusers - is not reported 99.9% of the time. Why? Most such sales are private sales made by individuals who keep such details (domains, price, etc.) to themselves. What effect does this have on perception of value and value data? My guess is that it's fairly significant.
For years I found that one of the best indicators of value were the listings at BuyDomains IF there were substantially similar domains with prices. Unfortunately, of late, due to the blending of BuyDomains property (domains) with third-party domains (listed, but not owned by BD), the ability to track BD's assessment of value is obscured - often by long lists of ridiculously overpriced domains.
The real questions are:
Anyone have any answers to 1-3?
[edited by: Webwork at 3:18 pm (utc) on Sep. 16, 2008]
1. Are there ways to interpret the available aggregated data that make drive greater value FROM the aggregated data?Yes. But these often involve correlation (I use Frank Schilling's nameservers and those of a few other key players as guides for developing trends) and the odd value judgement.
2. Are there effective and ineffective ways of using the aggregated data?The most ineffective way would be to leave the user to decide. The most effective (and costly) way would be to integrate a number of sources and opinions. That requires developing algorithms that integrate linguistics with statistics.
3. How do you "get at" the more robust data, i.e., enduser sale data, when the VAST body of enduser sale data isn't publicly available?Getting at this data is hard. Sometimes it has to be based on inference - a domain changing nameservers from an identified parking/PPC/shared hosting nameserver to a business nameserver with a concurrent boost in web footprint. That kind of tracking is doable on a micro level but doing it globally requires a lot of resources. I've got a db with the history from 2000 to the present of domains across com/net/org/biz/info/ie/mobi/asia/eu/co.uk and there is a core of approximately 300K domains that exist in the main TLDs. These seem to be the high value/tuple domains. However not all domains are actively used.
Regards...jmcc
Too bad PPC data isn't a bit more transparent. The reports of payments being "in decline" are myriad, but the available data suggests that money being spent on PPC isn't matching that payout decline.
So much speculation about how PPC is affecting auction and buying activity "around now". However, that context - of PPC payout decline is only part of the picture. Important to know but also important to understand.
FWIW, despite the reported downturn in PPC that flow of offers to purchase hasn't suffered. $5K, $15K, $50K and a flurry of others. Enduser assessments, of course, and given the target domains I'm just one more fool amongst many that has little more to say than "No thank you".
Wonder how those words will taste if I ever have to eat them should the market go all to hell? :P
[edited by: Webwork at 4:05 pm (utc) on Sep. 16, 2008]
Although we do get incorrect data from this feed, the data we do get that is correct is invaluable, so if you see any suspect listings, please notify us to have them removed.
Regards,
Justin Allen
NameBio.com
Regards...jmcc
