Predictions for Affiliate Marketing?

let the Nostradamus inside you talk

[rfung]

So I'm just throwing it out there - does anyone see affiliate marketing changing? for the better? for the worse? does the increase in advertising money spent this year, and seemingly for the near future cast any shadows or adds more light into AM's future? more competition? tougher competition? online buying, increasing? how about international? anyone jumping in now, is it still on time? is it too late? is it going up or down?

Not really looking for anything in particular but just your views on this topic.

[ftwb05]

One thing I've always been worried about is the danger of scam sites that would destroy peoples confidence in "clicking through" to affiliates.

We all know about spam e-mails that try to trick you into going to your bank to ebay, etc, when in fact its a copy site designed to get your banks details or passwords.

Imagine what would happen if these spammers turned their attention to affiliates, building copies of sites, that people would click through to, to make a purchase, when in fact they'd be giving their personal information away!

Or am I just paranoid?

[mwack]

Phishing is a problem, but I don't think it's going to have a big effect on the market itself. People aren't going to stop using eBay or Amazon because someone tricked them into entering their info to a fake eBay or Amazon, and I doubt people will stop surfing and coming across affiliate sites and buying things even if a few people trick them.

[zivkovicp]

as long as people continue to shop online, I'm not going to worry. :)

[iblaine]

Multi level marketing will always exist and so will online buying. What I think we will see is more complicated affiliate marketing models and more companies involved. AdSense & AdWords brought affiliate marketing to a new level with contextual advertising and a managed ad network - it's idiot proof and anyone can use it. The days of managing complex relationships between publishers, advertisers and ad networks are over and we're starting to see more elaborate MLM schemes...such as estated EPM, estimated EPC, arbitraging CPA and situations where an ad network takes the complexity out of buying media. I know engineers at large ad networks that are replacing media buyers with programs and algorythyms. It's that kind of innovation that will make ad networks more efficient, easier to use and widespread. Anywho, my $.02.

[shri]

This is going to be one hell of a year for a LOT of affiliates. Some will win, some will loose, some will rise in the serps, some will make adwords profitable for themselves.

Hows that for predictions. :)

Had a bad Q1 (compared to Q4) .. but Q2 is looking good and gearing up for Q3 and Q4 with a much diversified portfolio of sites and deals.

One predictive suggestion .. try to do private deals with merchants that don't have affiliate programs. I see that being a good way forward in lot of markets.

[dmerton]

I think it will no doubt get harder. I have got to think that we are all building sites and adding pages quicker than internet traffic is growing. So competion will intensify for that traffic. Also more and more people are starting to learn how to build better sites and utilize SEO and PPC. I do predict growth for the Aff marketing segment, although I see the gap widening between the hobbists and those who are building a real business.

[Michael Anthony]

My view is that the industries earning big money will become more and more efficient by cutting out as many online middle men as possible, and the difference between ad costs and revenue generated will become smaller. This will in turn create consolidation in those industries, with the bigger sites buying out their major affs and competitors.

The winners from our point of view will be the affs who move with the market and focus on smaller and smaller niches, where the big boys don't play as the level of expertise required is too specialised.

However, Shri has a very good point - my very best deals are with merchants who had never heard of aff marketing before I spoke to them, and whose other advertising has been stopped in favour of higher spend online. An affiliate who can bring something new to an established business will always prosper, and a merchant NOT paying CJ or similar a 30% margin for their services has a much better chance of showing a profit (No offence to any network people I know :))

So, rogerio, to answer your question, I think it'll get harder to make a buck, but I know that clever guys like you and I will always be working to stay ahead.

[zivkovicp]

I think it will never be a problem for those who do affiliate marketing full time. Speaking from experience... I do NOT know of too many people that do affiliate marketing as a job... in fact most people are totally lost when I try to explain what I am doing (they think it's illegal, I don't know why)

As for more people getting into the game, that's ok. It will only help improve the image of the affiliate marketer, that will lead to higher conversions. Plus those who are not serious will very quickly get pushed aside.

Not only that but as more people start to use the net, and start to use the net for shopping, information searching and so on... they will create NEW niche markets, products and services. This is good for all.

I see affiliate marketing as a growth industry. I think it will stay that way for a while.

My 2c.

Pete